1816 Chapel Hill Rd · Princeton, TX 75407

$249,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,633 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 4,604 sqft lot 2-car garage $152/sqft · 21% below area Est $315k · 21% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautiful 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath single-family home offering comfort, space, and modern living. This well-maintained home features an open-concept layout with abundant natural light, a spacious living area, and a functional kitchen perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite includes a private bath and generous closet space, while the additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Enjoy the convenience of a half bath on the main floor, ample storage, and a cozy backyard ideal for relaxing or hosting gatherings.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Half bath
• Private bath

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BATH
• GENEROUS CLOSET SPACE
• HALF BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $249k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-288 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Smith El (math 53% / reading 48%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 683 students, 54% FRL); Clark Middle (math 53% / reading 42%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 707 students, 66% FRL); Princeton H S (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 2157 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 89d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,069 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.96%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $314,552
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -20.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2305 States St	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,605 (-2%)	5mo	$292,990	$183	78
900 Colgate Cir	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,688 (+3%)	1mo	$319,000	$189	77
1908 Boston Way	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,688 (+3%)	1mo	$299,000	$177	76
1018 Colgate Cir	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,688 (+3%)	5mo	$305,000	$181	68
1211 Longneck Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,652 (+1%)	4mo	$375,000	$227	67
904 Colgate Cir	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,741 (+7%)	4mo	$340,000	$195	67
2300 Winthrop Ave	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,826 (+12%)	3mo	$279,000	$153	64
2001 Partridge Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,692 (+4%)	5mo	$318,990	$189	60
1005 1st St	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,668 (+2%)	3mo	$300,000	$180	56
117 W Gantt St	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,778 (+9%)	4mo	$325,000	$183	48
311 E Willow Ln	0.59mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,410 (-14%)	2mo	$168,000	$119	39
801 Princeton Heights Blvd	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,836 (+12%)	2mo	$350,900	$191	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-64,580
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -48.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-102,532
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 85 active · 26 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.5 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $325,000 ($188/sqft)
• Median days on market: 88 d
• This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 2157
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,053 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$455 /mo · $5,455/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,418

Max offer price $198,069

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-147	-5% $-218	+0% $-288	+5% $-359	+10% $-429
Rent	-10% $-450	-5% $-369	+0% $-288	+5% $-207	+10% $-126
Rate	-1.0pp $-163	-0.5pp $-225	base $-288	+0.5pp $-353	+1.0pp $-418

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1906 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,795	$1.10	11d	1	0.03mi
1906 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,900	$1.16	59d	1	0.03mi
1906 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,995	$1.22	139d	1	0.03mi
1901 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$1,750	$1.09	114d	1	0.04mi
1819 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$1,700	$1.18	139d	1	0.04mi
1905 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	3.0	1826	$1,800	$0.99	45d	1	0.04mi
1809 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2121	$2,100	$0.99	100d	1	0.05mi
1818 Marquette Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,800	$1.10	139d	1	0.06mi
1903 Marquette Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$1,995	$1.04	24d	1	0.09mi
410 Forest St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,800	$1.27	103d	1	0.09mi
1708 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1826	$1,850	$1.01	99d	1	0.10mi
1708 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1920	$1,700	$0.89	64d	1	0.10mi
1709 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,695	$1.04	139d	1	0.10mi
311 Pleasant View Aly Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1957	$2,300	$1.18	11d	1	0.11mi
1702 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2121	$1,995	$0.94	103d	1	0.12mi
1780 Palladio Loop Princeton, TX	4.0	3.5	1944	$2,500	$1.29	6d	1	0.12mi
1808 Washington St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$1,850	$1.15	7d	1	0.12mi
1802 Washington St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$1,900	$0.99	83d	1	0.13mi
1641 Palladio Loop Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1956	$2,300	$1.18	11d	1	0.13mi
1702 Marquette Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2182	$2,150	$0.99	31d	1	0.14mi
1764 Palladio Loop Princeton, TX	3.0	3.5	1962	$1,999	$1.02	20d	1	0.14mi
1602 Palladio Loop Princeton, TX	3.0	3.5	1962	$2,250	$1.15	11d	1	0.14mi
1719 Palladio Loop Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1956	$1,950	$1.00	6d	1	0.14mi
1610 Palladio Loop Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1957	$1,899	$0.97	139d	1	0.14mi
1710 Washington St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$1,770	$1.23	89d	1	0.15mi
1805 Washington St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$1,775	$1.24	139d	1	0.15mi
603 Delaware Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,849	$1.13	88d	1	0.15mi
1744 Palladio Loop Princeton, TX	3.0	3.5	1944	$2,200	$1.13	11d	1	0.15mi
2012 Hancock Cir Princeton, TX	3.0	3.0	1633	$2,100	$1.29	3d	1	0.16mi
602 Colgate Cir Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$2,000	$1.04	45d	1	0.16mi
1658 Palladio Loop Unit 1658 Princeton, TX	3.0	3.5	1994	$1,950	$0.98	116d	1	0.16mi
2013 Hancock Cir Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$2,000	$1.04	71d	1	0.17mi
2117 Revere Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1633	$2,050	$1.26	139d	1	0.18mi
611 Colgate Cir Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$2,500	$1.30	89d	1	0.19mi
613 Delaware Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$1,950	$1.02	120d	1	0.19mi
508 Virginia Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,200	$1.16	108d	1	0.20mi
617 Delaware Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,749	$1.24	101d	1	0.20mi
617 Delaware Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,749	$1.24	59d	1	0.20mi
617 Colgate Cir Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,695	$1.16	36d	1	0.21mi
2119 Hamilton St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$2,000	$1.25	139d	1	0.21mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Monticello Park Princeton HOA)Annual association fee of $550 covering common area maintenanceCommunity pool

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener (garage faces front)Driveway6 total parking spaces (2 covered)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity connectedPublic sewerPublic water
• Home design: 2-story homeFaces eastResale property
• Construction: Brick constructionComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt per public records
• Exterior features: Covered front porchPatioNo exterior stepsWood fencing in back yardCommunity pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric ovenElectric ovenOvenDishwasherMicrowaveDisposal
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioningCeiling fansElectric cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchenOpen floorplanInterior stepsWalk-in closet(s)Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside with washer hookup and electric dryer hookup

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-07-01
   days on market $249,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-30
   days on market $249,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-29
   days on market $249,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-28
   days on market $249,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-27
   days on market $249,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-26
   days on market $249,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-24
   days on market $249,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-22
   days on market $249,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-18
    days on market $249,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-17
    days on market $249,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-16
    days on market $249,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-15
    days on market $249,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-13
    days on market $249,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-06-13
    days on market $249,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-06-09
    days on market $249,000 Active 7 DOM
17. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,000 Active 6 DOM
18. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 5 DOM
19. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,000 Active 2 DOM
20. 2026-06-03
    days on marketlisting id $249,000 Active 1 DOM
21. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 5 DOM
22. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 4 DOM
23. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 3 DOM
24. 2026-05-29
    listed $249,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,455 · $455/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,455 · $455/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,635
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$5,455
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,971
• − Management: −$1,971
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$7,750
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,860
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,600/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,165–$24,495 screening

This well-maintained single-family home in a desirable neighborhood is ready for a fresh coat of paint and some minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Resale Paint interior trim — Improves the home's appearance and can increase property value ↑
• Resale Replace windows — Newer windows can increase energy efficiency and property value ↑
• Rental Replace HVAC system — A reliable HVAC system is essential for tenant satisfaction and can increase rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Smith El D+ TX #833/4,322 Nat'l #12,398/41,679 Middle Southard Middle B- TX #240/1,662 Nat'l #2,418/14,009 High Princeton H S C- TX #437/1,632 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Princeton, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,171
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Monticello Park Princeton HOA)Annual association fee of $550 covering common area maintenanceCommunity pool

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener (garage faces front)Driveway6 total parking spaces (2 covered)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity connectedPublic sewerPublic water
• Home design: 2-story homeFaces eastResale property
• Construction: Brick constructionComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt per public records
• Exterior features: Covered front porchPatioNo exterior stepsWood fencing in back yardCommunity pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric ovenElectric ovenOvenDishwasherMicrowaveDisposal
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioningCeiling fansElectric cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchenOpen floorplanInterior stepsWalk-in closet(s)Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside with washer hookup and electric dryer hookup

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $249,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+58.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,455 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.