12338 Tavares Ridge Cir · Tavares, FL 32778

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Condo public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2021

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Tavares Ridge Condominiums, located in Tavares, Florida. This condo is a single story and features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1140 sq. ft. An addtional 300 sq. ft. enclosed bonus room with windows, is located on the back of the condo for addtional space or storage. The unit has only had 2 owners. The condo has been completely re-piped, entire a/c system was replaced about 6 years ago, brand new electrical boxes were recently installed, inside and out, has a new hot water heater, kitchen was remodel 6 years ago with solid wood cabinets made of pecan, and a brand new dishwasher was just installed. Stainless steel appliances, and a stacked washer and dryer will remain with the unit. T

Key facts

• Solid wood cabinets
• Completely re-piped
• Enclosed bonus room

Tags

• ENCLOSED BONUS ROOM
• COMPLETELY RE-PIPED
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• KITCHEN REMODEL
• SOLID WOOD CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $337 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.5% in Tavares — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#220 in FL, #3,464 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 501 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $170k implies a 278% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.51%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,763
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $33,979
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32778

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 501
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,055 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $896/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA est. from 1 same-building comp: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $337

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,628

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30024 Tavares Ridge Blvd Unit 62 Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$2,000	$1.75	24d	1	0.10mi
2106 Shantiniketan Blvd Unit B6 Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	5d	1	0.53mi
741 W Rosewood Ln Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,195	$1.06	3d	1	0.63mi
459 E Rosewood Ln #157 Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,400	$1.13	22d	1	0.80mi
500 E Rosewood Ln Unit 154 Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,650	$1.45	24d	1	0.80mi
1585 Dead River Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,990	$1.89	24d	1	0.94mi
4950 Marsh Harbor Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$2,050	$1.67	4d	1	1.37mi
4567 Barbuda Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1362	$2,150	$1.58	24d	1	1.38mi
123 N Lake Ave Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,595	$1.42	24d	1	1.40mi
4721 Treasure Cay Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1372	$2,000	$1.46	15d	1	1.41mi
615 Juniper Way Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,900	$1.57	18d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $169,900 Active
2. 2025-10-28
   historical
3. 2025-09-16
   price $178,800
4. 2025-09-03
   price $182,200
5. 2025-08-14
   price $185,500
6. 2025-07-31
   listed $192,900 Active
7. 1999-10-22
   soldstatus $45,000
8. 1989-03-01
   soldstatus $37,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $896 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,410 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$514/yr (+$43/mo · 57.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,663
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$896
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,973
• − Management: −$1,973
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $1,511
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$363
• After-tax cash flow: $3,683/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tavares

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #3464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 25,042
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,042
• Household income: $63,472
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.07%
• Current HPI: 288.7123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+359.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $169,900 FSBO.com
• 2025-10-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $178,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $182,200 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $185,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Listed $192,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1989-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+21.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $896 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.