1408 Chestnut St · Franklin, PA 16323

$70,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1885 5,662 sqft lot $45/sqft · at area comps Est $70k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-bedroom 2 bath home in a great convenient location. New roof, driveway with off-street parking, small shed, nice back yard. Home needs some TLC, would make a great investment property or starter home. Cash only being sold AS IS

Key facts

• Small shed
• Nice back yard
• 5,662 sq ft lot

Tags

• SMALL SHED
• NICE BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $307 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 5.8% in Franklin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#812 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, employment D.
• Franklin Area SD (rural): math 29% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #388 of 539 in PA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 42 units permitted in Venango County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Venango County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $70k implies a 148% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1885 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $65,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1885 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.79%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,348
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -0.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
750 15th St	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,536 (-2%)	3mo	$15,000	$10	82
523 15th St	0.09mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,548 (-1%)	11mo	$94,000	$61	80
1541 Elk St	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,578 (+1%)	4mo	$152,500	$97	80
1316 Otter St	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,612 (+3%)	11mo	$33,000	$20	72
729 15th St	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,716 (+10%)	5mo	$15,500	$9	69
1337 Myrtle St	0.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,434 (-8%)	7mo	$25,000	$17	69
1433 Chestnut St	0.07mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,772 (+14%)	11mo	$47,000	$27	58
61 1st Ave	0.64mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,548 (-1%)	9mo	$65,000	$42	54
116 Center St	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,478 (-5%)	12mo	$91,575	$62	54
1001 Elk St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+15%)	13mo	$180,000	$100	34
60 Venango St	0.72mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,386 (-11%)	12mo	$40,000	$29	30
56 Venango St	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,374 (-12%)	14mo	$53,000	$39	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.94×
• Total profit: $57,712
• Equity at exit: $63,062

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.89×
• Total profit: $154,659
• Equity at exit: $135,995

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16323

• Home prices YoY: 12.2%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,050 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,516/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $307

Break-even live

Break-even rent $661

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $347	-5% $327	+0% $307	+5% $287	+10% $267
Rent	-10% $224	-5% $265	+0% $307	+5% $348	+10% $390
Rate	-1.0pp $342	-0.5pp $325	base $307	+0.5pp $289	+1.0pp $270

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1341 Sassafrass St Franklin, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,050	$0.81	45d	1	0.21mi
29 Bleakley Ave Franklin, PA	4.0	1.0	1179	$1,050	$0.89	14d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $70,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $70,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $70,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $70,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $70,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $70,000 Active 60 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    price $70,000 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    3-bedroom 2 bath home in a great convenient location. New roof, driveway with off-street parking, small shed, nice back yard. Home needs some TLC, would make a great investment property or starter home. Cash only being sold AS IS

18. 2026-03-31
    listed $80,000 Active 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    3-bedroom 2 bath home in a great convenient location. New roof, driveway with off-street parking, small shed, nice back yard. Home needs some TLC, would make a great investment property or starter home. Cash only being sold AS IS

19. 2022-10-28
    soldstatus $28,250 Closed 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    3 bed 2 bath downtown home with nice layout and small rear yard. Within walking distance restaurants, parks, and stores!

20. 2022-05-23
    listed $54,900 Active 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    3 bed 2 bath downtown home with nice layout and small rear yard. Within walking distance restaurants, parks, and stores!

21. 2006-02-09
    soldstatus $30,000
22. 2006-02-02
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,516 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,516 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,516
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,008
• − Management: −$1,008
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $2,761
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$663
• After-tax cash flow: $3,021/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4210200
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $43,451
• Composite: 31.73/100
• National rank: #5910
• State rank: #388 of 539 in PA

Livability — Franklin

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #812
• US rank: #8260

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Franklin, PA
• Population (ZIP): 14,694

Population outlook (Venango County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,827 people
• By 2030: 46,061 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 39,989 · -18.1%
• By 2050: 34,094 · -30.2%
• By 2075: 22,500 · -53.9%
• By 2100: 13,659 · -72.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Venango

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.1) · D 28.5% · R 70.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -42.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.1 2020: R+41.4 2016: R+42.4 2012: R+26.3 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.68%
• Current HPI: 245.9766
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+133.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $70,000 AVBREALTORS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $80,000 AVBREALTORS
• 2022-10-28 Sold (MLS) $28,250 AVBREALTORS
• 2022-05-23 Listed $54,900 AVBREALTORS
• 2006-02-09 Sold (MLS) $30,000 AVBREALTORS
• 2006-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,516 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.