102 Lakewood Dr · Gun Barrel City, TX 75156

$179,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,472 sqft · Manufactured public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1999 9,322 sqft lot $122/sqft · 9% below area Est $196k · 9% under · waterfront $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the best of both worlds with this stunning, completely remodeled doublewide home nestled in a convenient to town lakefront subdivision. Perfectly positioned for those who crave the lake lifestyle without the waterfront price tag, this property offers peace, privacy, and premier water access. Step inside to a bright, open floor plan featuring a cozy wood-burning fireplace, perfect for chilly evenings. Both bathrooms have been elegantly updated with custom tiled finishes. The primary suite serves as a true retreat with a deep soaking tub, separate shower and a spacious walk-in closet. Relax on the huge front porch, an ideal spot for morning coffee or sunset views. Are you looking for more space? The additional lot next door is available for purchase separately, perfect for a shop, garage, or extra privacy. Enjoy the perks of lakeside living with access to two community boat launches, making it effortless to get your boat on the water in minutes. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a weekend getaway, this move-in-ready gem delivers style and location.

Key facts

• Separate shower
• Deep soaking tub
• 9,322 sq ft lot

Tags

• REMODELED DOUBLEWIDE HOME
• LAKEFRONT SUBDIVISION
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• CUSTOM TILED FINISHES
• DEEP SOAKING TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $197 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (3.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.2% in Gun Barrel City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#519 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southside El (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 486 students, 80% FRL); Mabank Int (math 49% / reading 34%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 611 students, 66% FRL); Mabank H S (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,111 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 699 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.72%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,750
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: -8.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
144 Tanglewood Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-5%)	4mo	$120,000	$86	88
258 W Acres Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-2%)	14mo	$139,999	$97	68
150 Tanglewood Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-13%)	13mo	$90,000	$71	66
265 E Acres Rd	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+6%)	20mo	$195,000	$124	55
263 E Acres Rd	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,664 (+13%)	9mo	$159,900	$96	52
234 W Acres Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+14%)	5mo	$145,000	$86	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-21,504
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-22,114
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 699
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,720 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,685/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,471

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $299	-5% $248	+0% $197	+5% $147	+10% $96
Rent	-10% $61	-5% $129	+0% $197	+5% $265	+10% $333
Rate	-1.0pp $287	-0.5pp $243	base $197	+0.5pp $151	+1.0pp $104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
112 Queenswood Dr Mabank, TX	4.0	2.0	1376	$1,595	$1.16	45d	1	0.05mi
367 Box Rd Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,600	$1.32	45d	1	0.93mi
851 Welch Ln Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1745	$2,200	$1.26	45d	1	1.02mi
602 Legendary Ln Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,600	$1.10	45d	1	1.30mi
114 Sierra Madre St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,800	$1.42	45d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,000 Active 43 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    price $189,000 1095-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1098 chars)

    GB-9224. Discover the best of both worlds with this stunning, completely remodeled doublewide home nestled in a convenient to town lakefront subdivision. Perfectly positioned for those who crave the lake lifestyle without the waterfront price tag, this property offers peace, privacy, and premier water access. Step inside to a bright, open floor plan featuring a cozy wood-burning fireplace, perfect for chilly evenings. Both bathrooms have been elegantly updated with custom tiled finishes. The primary suite serves as a true retreat with a deep soaking tub, separate shower and a spacious walk-in closet. Relax on the huge front porch, an ideal spot for morning coffee or sunset views. Are you looking for more space? The additional lot next door is available for purchase separately, perfect for a shop, garage, or extra privacy. Enjoy the perks of lakeside living with access to two community boat launches, making it effortless to get your boat on the water in minutes. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a weekend getaway, this move-in-ready gem delivers style and location.

19. 2026-05-15
    price $189,000 1098-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1098 chars)

    GB-9224. Discover the best of both worlds with this stunning, completely remodeled doublewide home nestled in a convenient to town lakefront subdivision. Perfectly positioned for those who crave the lake lifestyle without the waterfront price tag, this property offers peace, privacy, and premier water access. Step inside to a bright, open floor plan featuring a cozy wood-burning fireplace, perfect for chilly evenings. Both bathrooms have been elegantly updated with custom tiled finishes. The primary suite serves as a true retreat with a deep soaking tub, separate shower and a spacious walk-in closet. Relax on the huge front porch, an ideal spot for morning coffee or sunset views. Are you looking for more space? The additional lot next door is available for purchase separately, perfect for a shop, garage, or extra privacy. Enjoy the perks of lakeside living with access to two community boat launches, making it effortless to get your boat on the water in minutes. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a weekend getaway, this move-in-ready gem delivers style and location.

20. 2026-05-08
    price $194,000 1095-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1098 chars)

    GB-9224. Discover the best of both worlds with this stunning, completely remodeled doublewide home nestled in a convenient to town lakefront subdivision. Perfectly positioned for those who crave the lake lifestyle without the waterfront price tag, this property offers peace, privacy, and premier water access. Step inside to a bright, open floor plan featuring a cozy wood-burning fireplace, perfect for chilly evenings. Both bathrooms have been elegantly updated with custom tiled finishes. The primary suite serves as a true retreat with a deep soaking tub, separate shower and a spacious walk-in closet. Relax on the huge front porch, an ideal spot for morning coffee or sunset views. Are you looking for more space? The additional lot next door is available for purchase separately, perfect for a shop, garage, or extra privacy. Enjoy the perks of lakeside living with access to two community boat launches, making it effortless to get your boat on the water in minutes. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a weekend getaway, this move-in-ready gem delivers style and location.

21. 2026-05-08
    price $194,000 1098-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1098 chars)

    GB-9224. Discover the best of both worlds with this stunning, completely remodeled doublewide home nestled in a convenient to town lakefront subdivision. Perfectly positioned for those who crave the lake lifestyle without the waterfront price tag, this property offers peace, privacy, and premier water access. Step inside to a bright, open floor plan featuring a cozy wood-burning fireplace, perfect for chilly evenings. Both bathrooms have been elegantly updated with custom tiled finishes. The primary suite serves as a true retreat with a deep soaking tub, separate shower and a spacious walk-in closet. Relax on the huge front porch, an ideal spot for morning coffee or sunset views. Are you looking for more space? The additional lot next door is available for purchase separately, perfect for a shop, garage, or extra privacy. Enjoy the perks of lakeside living with access to two community boat launches, making it effortless to get your boat on the water in minutes. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a weekend getaway, this move-in-ready gem delivers style and location.

22. 2026-04-24
    price $199,500 1095-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1098 chars)

    GB-9224. Discover the best of both worlds with this stunning, completely remodeled doublewide home nestled in a convenient to town lakefront subdivision. Perfectly positioned for those who crave the lake lifestyle without the waterfront price tag, this property offers peace, privacy, and premier water access. Step inside to a bright, open floor plan featuring a cozy wood-burning fireplace, perfect for chilly evenings. Both bathrooms have been elegantly updated with custom tiled finishes. The primary suite serves as a true retreat with a deep soaking tub, separate shower and a spacious walk-in closet. Relax on the huge front porch, an ideal spot for morning coffee or sunset views. Are you looking for more space? The additional lot next door is available for purchase separately, perfect for a shop, garage, or extra privacy. Enjoy the perks of lakeside living with access to two community boat launches, making it effortless to get your boat on the water in minutes. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a weekend getaway, this move-in-ready gem delivers style and location.

23. 2026-04-24
    price $199,500 1098-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1098 chars)

    GB-9224. Discover the best of both worlds with this stunning, completely remodeled doublewide home nestled in a convenient to town lakefront subdivision. Perfectly positioned for those who crave the lake lifestyle without the waterfront price tag, this property offers peace, privacy, and premier water access. Step inside to a bright, open floor plan featuring a cozy wood-burning fireplace, perfect for chilly evenings. Both bathrooms have been elegantly updated with custom tiled finishes. The primary suite serves as a true retreat with a deep soaking tub, separate shower and a spacious walk-in closet. Relax on the huge front porch, an ideal spot for morning coffee or sunset views. Are you looking for more space? The additional lot next door is available for purchase separately, perfect for a shop, garage, or extra privacy. Enjoy the perks of lakeside living with access to two community boat launches, making it effortless to get your boat on the water in minutes. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a weekend getaway, this move-in-ready gem delivers style and location.

24. 2026-04-17
    listed $210,000 Active 1098-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1098 chars)

    GB-9224. Discover the best of both worlds with this stunning, completely remodeled doublewide home nestled in a convenient to town lakefront subdivision. Perfectly positioned for those who crave the lake lifestyle without the waterfront price tag, this property offers peace, privacy, and premier water access. Step inside to a bright, open floor plan featuring a cozy wood-burning fireplace, perfect for chilly evenings. Both bathrooms have been elegantly updated with custom tiled finishes. The primary suite serves as a true retreat with a deep soaking tub, separate shower and a spacious walk-in closet. Relax on the huge front porch, an ideal spot for morning coffee or sunset views. Are you looking for more space? The additional lot next door is available for purchase separately, perfect for a shop, garage, or extra privacy. Enjoy the perks of lakeside living with access to two community boat launches, making it effortless to get your boat on the water in minutes. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a weekend getaway, this move-in-ready gem delivers style and location.

25. 2026-04-10
    listed $210,000 Active 1095-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1095 chars)

    Discover the best of both worlds with this stunning, completely remodeled doublewide home nestled in a convenient to town lakefront subdivision. Perfectly positioned for those who crave the lake lifestyle without the waterfront price tag, this property offers peace, privacy, and premier water access. Step inside to a bright, open floor plan featuring a cozy wood-burning fireplace, perfect for chilly evenings. Both bathrooms have been elegantly updated with custom tiled finishes. The primary suite serves as a true retreat with a deep soaking tub, separate shower and a spacious walk-in closet. Relax on the huge front porch, an ideal spot for morning coffee or sunset views. Are you looking for more space? The additional lot next door is available for purchase separately, perfect for a shop, garage, or extra privacy. Enjoy the perks of lakeside living with access to two community boat launches, making it effortless to get your boat on the water in minutes. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a weekend getaway, this move-in-ready gem delivers style and location.

26. 2022-07-05
    listed $160,000 Active
27. 2020-01-17
    soldstatus
28. 2020-01-17
    soldstatus
29. 2019-08-09
    soldstatus
30. 2004-06-14
    soldstatus
31. 2003-04-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,685 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,276 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,591/yr (+$133/mo · 94.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,642
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$1,685
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,651
• − Management: −$1,651
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$571
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$137
• After-tax cash flow: $2,504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gun Barrel City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #519
• US rank: #10212

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+18.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $189,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $189,000 HCBOR
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $194,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $194,000 HCBOR
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $199,500 NTREIS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $199,500 HCBOR
• 2026-04-17 Listed $210,000 HCBOR
• 2026-04-10 Listed $210,000 NTREIS
• 2022-07-05 Listed $160,000 NTREIS
• 2020-01-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-01-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-08-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-06-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-04-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,685 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.