2312 Tibiletti Dr · Victoria, TX 77901

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 233 Days on market

Built 2012 1.25 ac lot Est $187k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LARGE VACANT LOT -1.25 ACRES ACROSS FROM BUDWEISER PLANT-RIGHT OF DEL MAR DRIVE.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Oak cabinetry
• Primary bathroom

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• WRAP-AROUND DECK
• REAL WOOD KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• OAK CABINETRY
• FRESH VCT FLOORING
• PRIMARY BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 1.25 acres (one to three acres); city lot; Paved city street frontage; No water body on property

Exterior

• Parking: 2-space carport; Circular driveway
• Utilities: Electricity available; Electricity on property; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Phone service available; Public trash collection; Public sewer; Water sources: private, public, and well
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition/shingle roof; Built year: assessor records
• Exterior features: Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Oven; Range hood; Refrigerator; Some electric appliances
• Bedrooms: Bedroom (one room listed)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Window-unit heating (see remarks); Electric cooling; Wall/window air conditioning units (three or more)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floorplan with living/dining room; Kitchen/family room combo; Recessed lighting; Split bedrooms; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Vanity; Separate shower (shower only)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry details: see remarks

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($366/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.7% in Victoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#309 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $120k implies a 605% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.09%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $186,880
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3508 Meadowlane St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,216 (-5%)	6mo	$89,500	$74	54
3501 Morningside St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,167 (-9%)	6mo	$169,900	$146	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-21,042
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-29,548
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77901

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,247 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$276 /mo · $3,307/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,208

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
212 Sam Houston Dr Unit 220 Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	974	$1,013	$1.04	43d	1	0.95mi
212 Sam Houston Dr Unit 209 Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	974	$963	$0.99	43d	1	0.95mi
2402 N Ben Wilson St Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,580	$1.60	43d	20	0.98mi
306 Sam Houston Dr Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	770	$1,370	$1.78	43d	4	1.00mi
102 Palmwood Dr Victoria, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,045	$0.95	43d	1	1.04mi
203 Palmwood Dr Unit B Victoria, TX	3.0	2.0	1110	$1,350	$1.22	43d	1	1.08mi
602 Sherwood Dr Unit C Victoria, TX	2.0	2.0	1225	$1,250	$1.02	43d	1	1.27mi
903 Linwood Dr Victoria, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	43d	1	1.35mi
308 Westwood St Unit D Victoria, TX	2.0	1.5	1010	$1,175	$1.16	43d	1	1.41mi
301 Westwood St Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	987	$1,145	$1.16	43d	1	1.43mi
301 Westwood St Apt D Victoria, TX	2.0	1.5	987	$1,145	$1.16	43d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $119,900 Pending 233 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $119,900 Active Under Contract 233 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $119,900 Active Under Contract 232 DOM
4. 2026-04-28
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2026-04-09
   price $119,900
6. 2026-03-19
   price $139,900
7. 2026-01-21
   price $149,900
8. 2025-10-10
   listed $174,900 Active
9. 2022-06-13
   soldstatus
10. 2022-05-11
    status Pending
11. 2022-05-04
    listed $125,000 Active
12. 2012-03-16
    soldstatus $17,000 80-char remark

    Show marketing remark (80 chars)

    LARGE VACANT LOT -1.25 ACRES ACROSS FROM BUDWEISER PLANT-RIGHT OF DEL MAR DRIVE.

13. 2011-05-05
    listed $22,500 80-char remark

    Show marketing remark (80 chars)

    LARGE VACANT LOT -1.25 ACRES ACROSS FROM BUDWEISER PLANT-RIGHT OF DEL MAR DRIVE.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,307 · $276/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,307 · $276/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$3,307
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,197
• − Management: −$1,197
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$1,545
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$371
• After-tax cash flow: $737/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844150
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,534
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #7562
• State rank: #645 of 826 in TX

Livability — Victoria

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #6960

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victoria, TX
• County: Victoria County · 69,915 people
• City population: 69,915
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,854
• Household income: $57,923
• Rent vs Own: 46.5% rent · 53.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1802.0

Population outlook (Victoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,119 people
• By 2030: 113,161 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 127,402 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 141,953 · +33.8%
• By 2075: 179,410 · +69.1%
• By 2100: 200,127 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 30% White 24% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 35% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Victoria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 28.4% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+38.0 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.62%
• Current HPI: 138.3569
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+432.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $119,900 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $139,900 CTXMLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $149,900 CTXMLS
• 2025-10-10 Listed $174,900 CTXMLS
• 2022-06-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-11 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2022-05-04 Listed $125,000 CTXMLS
• 2012-03-16 Sold (MLS) $17,000 CTXMLS
• 2011-05-05 Listed $22,500 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,307 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.