2311 Criss Rd SW · South Valley, NM 87105

$239,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,510 sqft · Other public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1956

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

An original adobe home in the South Valley. Large lot spans all the way from Criss to Jerry Rd. There& apos; s room to build an additional residence or bring in a mobile or modular home. This listing is for beneficial interest in an assignable contract for 4 developable properties in a rapidly growing market with high demand. More than 2311, 2315, 2316 and 2320 are all available. Media here https://photos. app. goo.gl/YXzWLjPExZV42U9y6

Key facts

• Additional residence
• Large lot
• Original adobe home

Tags

• ORIGINAL ADOBE HOME
• LARGE LOT
• ADDITIONAL RESIDENCE
• DEVELOPABLE PROPERTIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-256/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.9% in South Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#113 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: commute C-, employment D, schools F.
• Albuquerque Public Schools (urban): math 51% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #3 of 29 in NM (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 1,316 units permitted in Bernalillo County in 2024 (546 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,411 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.34%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-40,105
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-36,748
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87105

• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,964 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $816/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,991

Max offer price $235,233

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $114	-5% $46	+0% $-21	+5% $-89	+10% $-157
Rent	-10% $-176	-5% $-99	+0% $-21	+5% $56	+10% $134
Rate	-1.0pp $99	-0.5pp $39	base $-21	+0.5pp $-83	+1.0pp $-146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $239,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    listed $239,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $816 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,912 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,096/yr (+$91/mo · 134.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone AH · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$816
• − Insurance: −$3,020
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,886
• − Management: −$1,886
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$4,378
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,051
• After-tax cash flow: $795/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albuquerque Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500060
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 45.00%
• Median HH income: $48,151
• Composite: 53.29/100
• National rank: #1487
• State rank: #3 of 29 in NM

Livability — South Valley

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #19456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Valley, NM
• County: Bernalillo County · 647,165 people
• City population: 54,215
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 54,367
• Household income: $55,644
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1175.0

Population outlook (Bernalillo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 704,528 people
• By 2030: 711,723 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 714,522 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 709,274 · +0.7%
• By 2075: 680,015 · -3.5%
• By 2100: 619,879 · -12.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 34% White 14% Native American 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 45%

Political lean MEDSL · Bernalillo

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.2% · R 38.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.3pp no change · 2008: 21.4pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+24.4 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+21.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.16%
• Current HPI: 269.4587
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $239,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $816 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.