12900 Walden Rd #505 · Conroe, TX 77356

$94,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 618 sqft · Condo · 190 Days on market

Built 1979 Good condition $152/sqft · 12% below area Est $107k · 12% under $311/mo HOA · 26% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A Rare First-Floor Condo Find in Walden — Refreshed, Modern & Ready as a full-time home, weekend retreat, or turnkey rental (VRBO/Airbnb). Clean updated 1BR/1BTH in a prime location. Private patio with peaceful green views and pool vibes. Close to clubhouse, laundry room, and the 18th hole of Walden Golf Club on Lake Conroe. New tile flooring, fresh paint, and a bright open layout. Kitchen includes a refrigerator and is dishwasher-ready. Spacious bedroom features a large wall closet and cozy bathroom with an oversized shower. Walden’s resort-style amenities golf, pools, fitness center, marina, tennis, trails, and more. Walden community offers a golf and yacht club and has marina access, dog park, two pools, pickleball/tennis, trails, clubhouse, fitness/racquet center & more. 18th at Walden includes pools, hot tub, laundry room, 2 parking passes, water, sewer, trash, lawn care, sprinklers, dog stations, on-site mgmt., clubhouse, and building insurance.

Key facts

• Green views
• New tile flooring
• Bright open layout

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR CONDO
• PRIVATE PATIO
• GREEN VIEWS
• NEW TILE FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT
• BRIGHT OPEN LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $94k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($22/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $83k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1056 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $650 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $107,062
• List price: $94,000
• Delta: -12.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-18,478
• Equity at exit: $14,016

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-28,889
• Equity at exit: $8,127

Cash invested: $26,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1056
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,218 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$493
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$118 /mo · $1,410/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$311
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,216

Max offer price $94,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,500
• Closing costs: $2,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13151 Walden Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	521	$959	$1.84	2d	1	0.40mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $311 · $3,732/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashlandscapinginsurancepoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,000 Active 190 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,000 Active 189 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,000 Active 188 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,000 Active 187 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,000 Active 185 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,000 Active 184 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,000 Active 181 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,000 Active 180 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 520-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,000 Active 179 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $94,000 Active 176 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,000 Active 175 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,000 Active 174 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,000 Active 173 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,000 Active 172 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    price $100,000 989-char remark

    Show marketing remark (989 chars)

    A Rare First-Floor Condo Find in Walden — Refreshed, Modern & Ready as a full-time home, weekend retreat, or turnkey rental (VRBO/Airbnb). Clean updated 1BR/1BTH in a prime location. Private patio with peaceful green views and pool vibes. Close to clubhouse, laundry room, and the 18th hole of Walden Golf Club on Lake Conroe. New tile flooring, fresh paint, and a bright open layout. Kitchen includes a refrigerator and is dishwasher-ready. Spacious bedroom features a large wall closet and cozy bathroom with an oversized shower. Walden’s resort-style amenities golf, pools, fitness center, marina, tennis, trails, and more. Walden community offers a golf and yacht club and has marina access, dog park, two pools, pickleball/tennis, trails, clubhouse, fitness/racquet center & more. 18th at Walden includes pools, hot tub, laundry room, 2 parking passes, water, sewer, trash, lawn care, sprinklers, dog stations, on-site mgmt., clubhouse, and building insurance.

17. 2026-03-25
    price $103,000 989-char remark

    Show marketing remark (989 chars)

    A Rare First-Floor Condo Find in Walden — Refreshed, Modern & Ready as a full-time home, weekend retreat, or turnkey rental (VRBO/Airbnb). Clean updated 1BR/1BTH in a prime location. Private patio with peaceful green views and pool vibes. Close to clubhouse, laundry room, and the 18th hole of Walden Golf Club on Lake Conroe. New tile flooring, fresh paint, and a bright open layout. Kitchen includes a refrigerator and is dishwasher-ready. Spacious bedroom features a large wall closet and cozy bathroom with an oversized shower. Walden’s resort-style amenities golf, pools, fitness center, marina, tennis, trails, and more. Walden community offers a golf and yacht club and has marina access, dog park, two pools, pickleball/tennis, trails, clubhouse, fitness/racquet center & more. 18th at Walden includes pools, hot tub, laundry room, 2 parking passes, water, sewer, trash, lawn care, sprinklers, dog stations, on-site mgmt., clubhouse, and building insurance.

18. 2026-01-12
    price $105,000 989-char remark

    Show marketing remark (989 chars)

    A Rare First-Floor Condo Find in Walden — Refreshed, Modern & Ready as a full-time home, weekend retreat, or turnkey rental (VRBO/Airbnb). Clean updated 1BR/1BTH in a prime location. Private patio with peaceful green views and pool vibes. Close to clubhouse, laundry room, and the 18th hole of Walden Golf Club on Lake Conroe. New tile flooring, fresh paint, and a bright open layout. Kitchen includes a refrigerator and is dishwasher-ready. Spacious bedroom features a large wall closet and cozy bathroom with an oversized shower. Walden’s resort-style amenities golf, pools, fitness center, marina, tennis, trails, and more. Walden community offers a golf and yacht club and has marina access, dog park, two pools, pickleball/tennis, trails, clubhouse, fitness/racquet center & more. 18th at Walden includes pools, hot tub, laundry room, 2 parking passes, water, sewer, trash, lawn care, sprinklers, dog stations, on-site mgmt., clubhouse, and building insurance.

19. 2025-12-10
    listed $109,000 Active 989-char remark

    Show marketing remark (989 chars)

    A Rare First-Floor Condo Find in Walden — Refreshed, Modern & Ready as a full-time home, weekend retreat, or turnkey rental (VRBO/Airbnb). Clean updated 1BR/1BTH in a prime location. Private patio with peaceful green views and pool vibes. Close to clubhouse, laundry room, and the 18th hole of Walden Golf Club on Lake Conroe. New tile flooring, fresh paint, and a bright open layout. Kitchen includes a refrigerator and is dishwasher-ready. Spacious bedroom features a large wall closet and cozy bathroom with an oversized shower. Walden’s resort-style amenities golf, pools, fitness center, marina, tennis, trails, and more. Walden community offers a golf and yacht club and has marina access, dog park, two pools, pickleball/tennis, trails, clubhouse, fitness/racquet center & more. 18th at Walden includes pools, hot tub, laundry room, 2 parking passes, water, sewer, trash, lawn care, sprinklers, dog stations, on-site mgmt., clubhouse, and building insurance.

20. 2025-12-10
    historical

    Show marketing remark (989 chars)

    A Rare First-Floor Condo Find in Walden — Refreshed, Modern & Ready as a full-time home, weekend retreat, or turnkey rental (VRBO/Airbnb). Clean updated 1BR/1BTH in a prime location. Private patio with peaceful green views and pool vibes. Close to clubhouse, laundry room, and the 18th hole of Walden Golf Club on Lake Conroe. New tile flooring, fresh paint, and a bright open layout. Kitchen includes a refrigerator and is dishwasher-ready. Spacious bedroom features a large wall closet and cozy bathroom with an oversized shower. Walden’s resort-style amenities golf, pools, fitness center, marina, tennis, trails, and more. Walden community offers a golf and yacht club and has marina access, dog park, two pools, pickleball/tennis, trails, clubhouse, fitness/racquet center & more. 18th at Walden includes pools, hot tub, laundry room, 2 parking passes, water, sewer, trash, lawn care, sprinklers, dog stations, on-site mgmt., clubhouse, and building insurance.

21. 2025-11-20
    price $109,000
22. 2025-11-05
    price $115,000
23. 2025-10-14
    price $119,000
24. 2025-09-24
    price $121,999
25. 2025-08-23
    listed $123,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,265
• − Property taxes: −$1,410
• − Insurance: −$470
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,170
• − Management: −$1,170
• − HOA: −$3,732
• − Depreciation: −$2,735
• Taxable loss: −$1,332
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$320
• After-tax cash flow: $341/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 None rehab

This 1BR/1BTH condo is in excellent condition with fresh paint, new tile flooring, and a private patio with peaceful green views and pool vibes, making it ready for move-in and highly appealing for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Private patio with peaceful green views and pool vibes — Enhances both resale and rental appeal
• Both Spacious bedroom features a large wall closet — Improves both resale and rental appeal
• Both Cozy bathroom with an oversized shower — Enhances both resale and rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Private patio with peaceful green views and pool vibes — Enhances both resale and rental appeal ↑
• Both Spacious bedroom features a large wall closet — Improves both resale and rental appeal ↑
• Both Cozy bathroom with an oversized shower — Enhances both resale and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $103,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $109,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $109,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $119,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $121,999 HARMLS
• 2025-08-23 Listed $123,999 HARMLS