11891 Nelwood St · Willis, TX 77318

$154,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 101 Days on market

Built 2022 Fair condition 2,099 sqft lot $155/sqft · at area comps Est $150k · at est. $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Home in Walnut Cove – Lake Conroe Area! This single-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and 1,000 sq ft with a bright open-concept layout and an island kitchen perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy standout finishes including 42” soft-close cabinets, a large walk-in pantry, stainless steel appliances, and tile flooring throughout. The primary suite features a spacious walk-in closet and a walk-in shower, while the secondary bath includes a tub—ideal for guests or family needs. A fully paid water softener is included with the sale! The home includes solar panels that are included in the sale. The system is owned (not leased). Buyer will assume the remaining loan payments associated with the solar system. Walnut Cove residents enjoy resort-style amenities including a large community pool, basketball court, pickleball, volleyball, multiple parks, plus a boat ramp and lake access for weekend fun.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Island kitchen
• Pickleball

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• SOLAR PANELS
• COMMUNITY POOL
• BASKETBALL COURT
• PICKLEBALL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $155k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $281 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1199 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 10227% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,959 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.78%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,084
• List price: $154,900
• Delta: 3.21%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11847 Nelwood St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,000 (0%)	2mo	$159,900	$160	92
11751 White Cedar St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,000 (0%)	0mo	$159,900	$160	90
11753 White Cedar St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,000 (0%)	1mo	$159,900	$160	88
11755 White Cedar St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,000 (0%)	1mo	$159,900	$160	88
9770 Blackgum Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	988 (-1%)	2mo	$158,000	$160	80
9775 Black Gum	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,000 (0%)	4mo	$154,900	$155	80
9864 Arbor Oak St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,000 (0%)	1mo	$159,900	$160	78
9866 Arbor Oak St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,000 (0%)	1mo	$159,900	$160	78
9868 Arbor Oak St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,000 (0%)	1mo	$159,900	$160	78
9563 Darkwood St	0.24mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,072 (+7%)	3mo	$159,000	$148	69
10088 Calendar St	0.50mi	3/2.0	930 (-7%)	1mo	$159,900	$172	62
11712 White Cedar St	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	855 (-14%)	2mo	$145,000	$170	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-12,242
• Equity at exit: $23,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-7,099
• Equity at exit: $13,393

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1199
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,735 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,324/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,379

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $388	-5% $335	+0% $281	+5% $228	+10% $174
Rent	-10% $144	-5% $213	+0% $281	+5% $350	+10% $418
Rate	-1.0pp $359	-0.5pp $321	base $281	+0.5pp $241	+1.0pp $200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11555 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	44d	1	0.19mi
11559 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,490	$1.49	44d	1	0.20mi
11561 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,530	$1.53	44d	1	0.20mi
9743 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	4d	1	0.22mi
9745 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	44d	1	0.22mi
9992 Calendar St Willis, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	44d	1	0.27mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	5d	1	0.78mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	44d	1	0.82mi
14156 Shadow Bay Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,195	$1.53	0d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $154,900 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,900 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,900 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,900 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,900 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,900 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,900 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $154,900 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $154,900 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,900 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,900 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,900 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    price $154,900 964-char remark

    Show marketing remark (964 chars)

    Beautiful Home in Walnut Cove – Lake Conroe Area! This single-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and 1,000 sq ft with a bright open-concept layout and an island kitchen perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy standout finishes including 42” soft-close cabinets, a large walk-in pantry, stainless steel appliances, and tile flooring throughout. The primary suite features a spacious walk-in closet and a walk-in shower, while the secondary bath includes a tub—ideal for guests or family needs. A fully paid water softener is included with the sale! The home includes solar panels that are included in the sale. The system is owned (not leased). Buyer will assume the remaining loan payments associated with the solar system. Walnut Cove residents enjoy resort-style amenities including a large community pool, basketball court, pickleball, volleyball, multiple parks, plus a boat ramp and lake access for weekend fun.

16. 2026-04-10
    listed $1,500
17. 2026-03-25
    price $149,900 964-char remark

    Show marketing remark (964 chars)

    Beautiful Home in Walnut Cove – Lake Conroe Area! This single-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and 1,000 sq ft with a bright open-concept layout and an island kitchen perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy standout finishes including 42” soft-close cabinets, a large walk-in pantry, stainless steel appliances, and tile flooring throughout. The primary suite features a spacious walk-in closet and a walk-in shower, while the secondary bath includes a tub—ideal for guests or family needs. A fully paid water softener is included with the sale! The home includes solar panels that are included in the sale. The system is owned (not leased). Buyer will assume the remaining loan payments associated with the solar system. Walnut Cove residents enjoy resort-style amenities including a large community pool, basketball court, pickleball, volleyball, multiple parks, plus a boat ramp and lake access for weekend fun.

18. 2026-03-12
    listed $155,000 Active 964-char remark

    Show marketing remark (964 chars)

    Beautiful Home in Walnut Cove – Lake Conroe Area! This single-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and 1,000 sq ft with a bright open-concept layout and an island kitchen perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy standout finishes including 42” soft-close cabinets, a large walk-in pantry, stainless steel appliances, and tile flooring throughout. The primary suite features a spacious walk-in closet and a walk-in shower, while the secondary bath includes a tub—ideal for guests or family needs. A fully paid water softener is included with the sale! The home includes solar panels that are included in the sale. The system is owned (not leased). Buyer will assume the remaining loan payments associated with the solar system. Walnut Cove residents enjoy resort-style amenities including a large community pool, basketball court, pickleball, volleyball, multiple parks, plus a boat ramp and lake access for weekend fun.

19. 2026-03-09
    historical
20. 2026-02-24
    listed $155,000 Active
21. 2023-02-06
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2023-01-12
    status Pending
23. 2022-12-11
    listed $157,900 Active
24. 2022-12-08
    status Active
25. 2022-12-08
    historical
26. 2022-10-31
    status Pending
27. 2022-09-27
    listed $159,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,819
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$2,324
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,666
• − Management: −$1,666
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable income: $979
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$235
• After-tax cash flow: $3,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This single-family home in Willis, TX, requires significant updates to its kitchen, bathrooms, flooring, and interior paint to improve its condition and value. Landscaping and curb appeal could also be improved to enhance its overall appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen cabinets — The cabinets are visibly worn and need replacement.
• Major Bathroom fixtures — The bathrooms lack modern finishes and need updates.
• Major Flooring — The flooring is worn and outdated, requiring replacement or refinishing.
• Major Interior paint — The interior walls and paint are in poor condition and need repainting.
• Major Landscaping — The landscaping is basic and could be improved to enhance curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Kitchen renovation — A modern kitchen renovation would significantly increase the home's appeal and value.
• Resale Bathroom updates — Updating the bathrooms with modern fixtures and finishes would enhance the home's appeal and value.
• Both Floor refinishing — Refinishing the flooring would improve the home's appearance and increase its rental value.
• Both Interior painting — Repainting the interior would improve the home's appearance and increase its resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping — Enhancing the landscaping would improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · The cabinets are visibly worn and need replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · The bathrooms lack modern finishes and need updates.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · The flooring is worn and outdated, requiring replacement or refinishing.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior paint · The interior walls and paint are in poor condition and need repainting.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · The landscaping is basic and could be improved to enhance curb appeal.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Kitchen renovation — A modern kitchen renovation would significantly increase the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Resale Bathroom updates — Updating the bathrooms with modern fixtures and finishes would enhance the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Floor refinishing — Refinishing the flooring would improve the home's appearance and increase its rental value. ↑
• Both Interior painting — Repainting the interior would improve the home's appearance and increase its resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhancing the landscaping would improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $154,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed for Rent $1,500 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2023-02-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-01-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-12-11 Listed $157,900 HARMLS
• 2022-12-08 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-12-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-10-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-09-27 Listed $159,900 HARMLS