12435 Sea Lane Dr · Old Jamestown, MO 63033

$90,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Townhouse public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1974 5,924 sqft lot $70/sqft · 12% below area Est $103k · 12% under $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Florissant Investment Opportunity! This well-maintained single-family condo features 3 bedrooms and 2.5 with 1294 sqft of living space and one car garage. It's currently occupied with a tenant paying $1260/month. Conveniently located near schools and major highways.

Key facts

• $19 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1974

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $957 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.0% vs local median 5.3% in Old Jamestown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#247 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($626 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $85,070 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.32%
• DSCR: 3.02
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $102,849
• List price: $90,500
• Delta: -12.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12444 Sea Lane Dr	0.02mi	3/1.5	1,296 (0%)	9mo	$89,000	$69	90
6 Tarpon Ct	0.22mi	3/3.0	1,304 (+1%)	3mo	$142,900	$110	82
6461 White Cap Ln	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,428 (+10%)	20mo	$90,000	$63	64
6524 Dolphin Cir	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,224 (-6%)	18mo	$115,000	$94	62
6567 Dolphin Cir E	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+13%)	15mo	$145,000	$99	56
6571 Dolphin Cir	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (+13%)	16mo	$145,999	$100	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 62.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.72×
• Total profit: $119,728
• Equity at exit: $81,530

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.3%
• Equity multiple: 13.93×
• Total profit: $327,684
• Equity at exit: $175,822

Cash invested: $25,340 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,994 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$475
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,040/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $957

Break-even live

Break-even rent $782

Max offer price $90,500

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,008	-5% $983	+0% $957	+5% $931	+10% $906
Rent	-10% $800	-5% $878	+0% $957	+5% $1,036	+10% $1,115
Rate	-1.0pp $1,003	-0.5pp $980	base $957	+0.5pp $934	+1.0pp $910

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,625
• Closing costs: $2,715
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12810 Verwood Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,026	$1.44	44d	1	0.45mi
6431 Brown Fox Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1105	$1,905	$1.72	22d	1	0.66mi
12887 Fox Haven Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1135	$1,750	$1.54	44d	1	0.78mi
5320 Springtrail Dr Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.5	1712	$2,390	$1.40	22d	1	0.85mi
12303 Benham Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1845	$1,771	$0.96	18d	1	0.94mi
5454 Misty Crossing Ct Florissant, MO	3.0	3.0	1518	$2,196	$1.45	8d	1	1.16mi
11969 Continental Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0–3.0	1.5	1075	$1,325	$1.23	2d	3	1.46mi
11592 Las Ladera Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	986	$1,616	$1.64	8d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $90,500 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-03-17
   listed $90,500 Active 273-char remark

   Show marketing remark (273 chars)

   Great Florissant Investment Opportunity! This well-maintained single-family condo features 3 bedrooms and 2.5 with 1294 sqft of living space and one car garage. It's currently occupied with a tenant paying $1260/month. Conveniently located near schools and major highways.

3. 2025-09-19
   status Active
4. 2025-07-22
   status Active
5. 2025-06-03
   status Active
6. 2025-06-03
   price $99,000
7. 2025-04-28
   status Pending
8. 2025-04-03
   listed $100,000 Active
9. 2005-07-18
   soldstatus $80,000
10. 2002-07-15
    soldstatus $69,000
11. 2002-07-15
    soldstatus $69,000
12. 1996-01-05
    soldstatus $31,922

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,040 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,040 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,925
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,069
• − Property taxes: −$1,040
• − Insurance: −$452
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,914
• − Management: −$1,914
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$2,633
• Taxable income: $10,674
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,562
• After-tax cash flow: $8,923/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Old Jamestown

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #247
• US rank: #12156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 19,557
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+183.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $90,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-19 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-22 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-03 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $99,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-28 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-03 Listed $100,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2002-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 2002-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 1996-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $31,922 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,040 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.