3073 Bagdad Hwy · Twentynine Palms, CA 92277

$139,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 520 sqft · Other public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1953 5.00 ac lot $269/sqft · 8% below area Est $152k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Desert cabin
• Newer roof
• Fig tree

Tags

• DESERT CABIN
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• NEWER ROOF
• CHICKEN COOP
• FIG TREE
• ZONED RECREATIONAL CABIN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total units: 1; No shared/common walls; Parcel number provided
• HOA & community: Mountainous community; Near preserve/public land; Adjacent to military land

Exterior

• Utilities: Public/District water; Septic tank sewage
• Home design: Single-story cabin; Entry at ground level; West-facing entry
• Construction: Year built source: Assessor
• Exterior features: Cabin structure; Rectangular lot shape; Desert front and desert back yard characteristics; Park nearby; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Pellet heating; Wall/window cooling; Pellet stove fireplace
• Interior features: One-level home; West-facing entry; Laundry room; Living room; Has a view
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-313/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.3% in Twentynine Palms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#622 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, employment D-.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 734 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $140k implies a 460% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,752 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.80%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,132
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -8.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-22,596
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-14,486
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92277

• Home prices YoY: -3.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 734
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,168 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,878/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,201

Max offer price $135,294

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $139,900 Active 596-char remark
16. 1994-03-09
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,878 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,878 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,010
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,878
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,121
• − Management: −$1,121
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$2,715
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$652
• After-tax cash flow: $339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morongo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625860
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,399
• Composite: 22.19/100
• National rank: #8156
• State rank: #395 of 517 in CA

Livability — Twentynine Palms

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #622
• US rank: #19731

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 26,277
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 26,277
• Household income: $60,901
• Rent vs Own: 56.7% rent · 43.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1057.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Two or more races 24% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 9% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.15%
• Current HPI: 380.5083
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.45%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+459.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $139,900 CRMLS
• 1994-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,878 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.