268 N Broad St · Carlinville, IL 62626

$79,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 4,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 117 Days on market

Built 1905 10,332 sqft lot $20/sqft · 61% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming historic residence in the heart of Carlinville, IL. This thoughtfully designed 2-story home features generous living spaces and classic character throughout.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1905

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $376 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#477 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Carlinville CUSD 1 (town): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #168 of 620 in IL (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 70 units permitted in Macoupin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macoupin County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.7% of price; built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $72,709 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.14%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $202,960
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -60.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
281 N Broad St	0.04mi	4/2.0	3,645 (-9%)	19mo	$199,900	$55	66
636 E 2nd South St	0.53mi	4/3.5	4,158 (+4%)	12mo	$350,000	$84	50
4 Valley	0.72mi	3/3.5 (-1)	4,152 (+4%)	4mo	$415,000	$100	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $11,124
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $41,108
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62626

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,445 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$314 /mo · $3,767/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $970

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,900 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $79,900 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,900 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,900 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,900 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,900 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $84,900 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    Welcome to this charming historic residence in the heart of Carlinville, IL. This thoughtfully designed 2-story home features generous living spaces and classic character throughout.

16. 2026-04-07
    price $89,900 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    Welcome to this charming historic residence in the heart of Carlinville, IL. This thoughtfully designed 2-story home features generous living spaces and classic character throughout.

17. 2026-02-19
    listed $94,900 Active 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    Welcome to this charming historic residence in the heart of Carlinville, IL. This thoughtfully designed 2-story home features generous living spaces and classic character throughout.

18. 2025-03-24
    historical
19. 2025-02-27
    listed $1 Active
20. 2003-12-22
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,767 · $314/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,767 · $314/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,343
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$3,767
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,387
• − Management: −$1,387
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $3,602
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$864
• After-tax cash flow: $3,642/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlinville CUSD 1
• NCES district ID: 1708430
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $53,617
• Composite: 31.91/100
• National rank: #5854
• State rank: #168 of 620 in IL

Livability — Carlinville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #477
• US rank: #9883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlinville, IL
• City population: 7,911
• Population (ZIP): 7,911

Population outlook (Macoupin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,867 people
• By 2030: 40,796 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 36,135 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 31,469 · -26.6%
• By 2075: 22,102 · -48.4%
• By 2100: 15,380 · -64.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Macoupin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.2) · D 29.4% · R 68.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -49.0pp toward R · 2008: 9.8pp · 2024: -39.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.2 2020: R+36.5 2016: R+35.0 2012: R+7.0 2008: D+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.39%
• Current HPI: 180.5544
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+13.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $84,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $89,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Listed $94,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-24 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-27 Listed $1 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,767 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.