5512 River Rd · McAllen, TX 78504

$273,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,648 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 155 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 7,183 sqft lot $166/sqft · 7% below area Est $294k · 7% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bath farmhouse style home in the highly sought after Tres Lagos Master Planned Community. Built in 2020 and in excellent condition, this home offers modern comfort, thoughtful design, and incredible community amenities. Inside you'll find beautiful tile flooring and elegant granite countertops that elevate the kitchen and baths. A separate dining room provides the perfect space for hosting, while the large living room offers an open and inviting setting for everyday living. The private primary suite has a spacious bathroom featuring a walk-in shower and two closets. Step outside to enjoy a spacious backyard with plenty of privacy - ideal for entertaining, pets, or simply relaxing. Living in Tres lagos feels like being on vacation year-round. Residents enjoy resort-style pools, a fitness center, hike and bike trails, playgrounds, and fiber optic internet - all within a beautifully planned community.

Key facts

• Farmhouse style home
• Separate dining room
• Large living room

Tags

• FARMHOUSE STYLE HOME
• TILE FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $273k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-336 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.9% in McAllen — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#119 in TX, #3,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Edinburg CISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #699 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Anne L Magee El (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 450 students, 78% FRL); Elias Longoria Sr Middle (math 16% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,236 of 1,662 statewide, top 76%, 804 students, 82% FRL); Robert R Vela H S (math 27% / reading 48%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,189 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 1064 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,690 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.27%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,475
• List price: $273,000
• Delta: -7.29%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14208 Big Creek Rd	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,598 (-3%)	3mo	$305,900	$191	81
14516 Buffalo Springs Way	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,719 (+4%)	8mo	$295,000	$172	78
14616 Kurth Cv	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,744 (+6%)	6mo	$314,900	$181	75
14220 Big Creek Rd	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,780 (+8%)	2mo	$305,000	$171	73
5316 Escondido Pass	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,709 (+4%)	9mo	$289,000	$169	72
5237 Lost Creek Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,755 (+6%)	11mo	$299,000	$170	66
6320 Cascada Bend Rd	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,641 (-0%)	9mo	$304,000	$185	64
5613 Escondido Pass	0.19mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,769 (+7%)	6mo	$299,900	$170	63
5148 Lost Creek Ln	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,773 (+8%)	6mo	$299,500	$169	60
14324 Chalk Ridge Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,674 (+2%)	11mo	$310,000	$185	59
6327 Cascada Bend Rd	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,696 (+3%)	11mo	$283,400	$167	56
13728 Belle Ct	0.66mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,709 (+4%)	4mo	$339,990	$199	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-66,420
• Equity at exit: $40,705

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-88,621
• Equity at exit: $23,604

Cash invested: $76,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 33 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 33.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $305,000 ($178/sqft)
• Median days on market: 119 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78504

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 1064
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,216 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,432
• Tax from tax record: −$499 /mo · $5,986/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,641

Max offer price $213,690

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-181	-5% $-258	+0% $-336	+5% $-413	+10% $-490
Rent	-10% $-511	-5% $-423	+0% $-336	+5% $-248	+10% $-161
Rate	-1.0pp $-198	-0.5pp $-266	base $-336	+0.5pp $-406	+1.0pp $-478

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,250
• Closing costs: $8,190
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5716 River Rd McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,100	$1.26	16d	1	0.11mi
14201 Mountain Ridge Ln McAllen, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1730	$2,080	$1.20	15d	20	0.18mi
5208 Escondido Pass McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	2226	$2,420	$1.09	93d	1	0.19mi
14301 N Shary Rd McAllen, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1689	$2,080	$1.23	63d	9	0.20mi
14612 Kurth Cv McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1688	$2,000	$1.18	16d	1	0.20mi
5261 Lost Creek Ln McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1824	$2,000	$1.10	16d	1	0.29mi
14138 Wichita Falls Ln McAllen, TX	4.0	2.5	1932	$2,750	$1.42	63d	1	0.32mi
14142 Wichita Falls Ln McAllen, TX	4.0	2.5	1932	$2,715	$1.41	16d	1	0.32mi
5217 Lost Creek Ln McAllen, TX	4.0	2.5	2181	$2,700	$1.24	16d	1	0.39mi
14219 Chalk Ridge Dr McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1630	$2,800	$1.72	93d	1	0.40mi
14013 Boykin Creek Rd McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1725	$2,500	$1.45	16d	1	0.42mi
14208 Boykin Creek Rd McAllen, TX	4.0	2.5	1644	$2,100	$1.28	93d	1	0.43mi
13929 Westcave Falls Ln Edinburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1506	$2,300	$1.53	63d	1	0.49mi
14333 Chalk Ridge Dr McAllen, TX	4.0	2.0	1611	$2,200	$1.37	93d	1	0.51mi
14333 Chalk Ridge Dr McAllen, TX	4.0	2.0	1611	$2,100	$1.30	15d	1	0.51mi
14123 Boykin Creek Rd McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	2189	$2,900	$1.32	93d	1	0.51mi
14337 Chalk Ridge Dr McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1696	$2,000	$1.18	16d	1	0.52mi
6336 Cascada Bend Rd McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1729	$2,050	$1.19	15d	1	0.61mi
13721 Belle Ct Edinburg, TX	4.0	3.0	1698	$2,300	$1.35	15d	1	0.64mi
4400 Caddo Ln McAllen, TX	4.0	2.5	2069	$3,000	$1.45	93d	1	0.83mi
13904 N 39th St Edinburg, TX	3.0	2.0	2020	$2,500	$1.24	93d	1	1.14mi
13921 N 36th St McAllen, TX	4.0	2.5	2084	$2,450	$1.18	93d	1	1.27mi
4008 Ventura Ave Unit 4 Edinburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,095	$1.04	63d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail $42/mo · $504/yr

• Likely covers: internetlandscapingpoolgym

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $273,000 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $273,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $273,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $273,000 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $273,000 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $273,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-07-29
   days on market $273,000 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-07-27
   days on market $273,000 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-07-25
   days on market $273,000 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $273,000 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    price $273,000 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $277,500 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $277,500 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $277,500 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $277,500 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $277,500 Active 132 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $277,500 Active 131 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $277,500 Active 130 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $277,500 Active 129 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $277,500 Active 128 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $277,500 Active 127 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $277,500 Active 126 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $277,500 Active 125 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $277,500 Active 123 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $277,500 Active 122 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $277,500 Active 121 DOM
27. 2026-07-04
    days on market $277,500 Active 120 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $277,500 Active 119 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $277,500 Active 118 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $277,500 Active 117 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $277,500 Active 116 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $277,500 Active 115 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $277,500 Active 114 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $277,500 Active 113 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $277,500 Active 112 DOM
36. 2026-06-25
    days on market $277,500 Active 110 DOM
37. 2026-06-23
    days on market $277,500 Active 108 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $277,500 Active 107 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $277,500 Active 104 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $277,500 Active 103 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $277,500 Active 102 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $277,500 Active 101 DOM
43. 2026-06-14
    days on market $277,500 Active 99 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    status $277,500 Active 98 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    days on market $277,500 Option 98 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $277,500 Option 97 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $277,500 Option 96 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $277,500 Option 95 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $277,500 Option 91 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    status $277,500 Option 90 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,986 · $499/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,986 · $499/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,589
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,292
• − Property taxes: −$5,986
• − Insurance: −$1,365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,127
• − Management: −$2,127
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$7,942
• Taxable loss: −$8,754
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,101
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,928/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,240–$24,720 screening

This 2020-built single-family home in Tres Lagos is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a spacious layout. It's move-in ready with minimal updates needed to maximize its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Anne L Magee El F TX #2,525/4,322 Nat'l #26,716/41,679 Middle Elias Longoria Sr Middle F TX #1,236/1,662 Nat'l #10,204/14,009 High Robert R Vela H S F TX #888/1,632 Nat'l #8,937/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edinburg CISD
• NCES district ID: 4818180
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $36,985
• Composite: 22.42/100
• National rank: #8114
• State rank: #699 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — McAllen

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #3771

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: McAllen, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 955,232 people
• City population: 144,650
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 63,094
• Household income: $81,905
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 82% Two or more races 39% White 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 62% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.87%
• Current HPI: 194.1764
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.57%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $285,000 RGVMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $285,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $295,000 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,986 · -14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.