406 Sterling Rd · Piney Green, NC 28546

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,602 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1977 0.37 ac lot Est $268k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable home with 3 bedrooms and a large bonus room , conveniently located in Jacksonville , outside the city limits. New roof in 2019, New HVAC in 2018. Lots of space in the kitchen area with a large counter and cabinet space. The Master bedroom has a large closet, and the laundry room is located in the hallway. Very spacious backyard is perfect for your pets and children to run around and enjoy themselves. Very easy commute to all area military bases, stores and the mall.

Key facts

• Stone countertops
• Brick fireplace
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• STONE COUNTERTOPS
• WHITE CABINETRY
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $406 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.6% in Piney Green — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#524 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Onslow County Schools (other): math 42% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #84 of 178 in NC (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Morton Elementary (math 53% / reading 48%, grade D+, #403 of 1,410 statewide, top 29%, 682 students, 58% FRL); Hunters Creek Middle (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #251 of 475 statewide, top 54%, 922 students, 55% FRL); White Oak High (math 57% / reading 54%, grade C, #265 of 535 statewide, top 50%, 1,207 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 37% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 604 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,246 units permitted in Onslow County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.9% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.66%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $267,534
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
113 Princeton Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,659 (+4%)	2mo	$245,000	$148	76
203 Devon Ct	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,400 (-13%)	3mo	$233,900	$167	71
204 Walnut Creek Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,724 (+8%)	2mo	$250,000	$145	71
315 Sterling Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-10%)	6mo	$250,000	$174	68
106 Cobalt Stream Ct	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-0%)	3mo	$281,500	$176	67
304 Sheffield Rd	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,400 (-13%)	3mo	$224,900	$161	66
105 Barnhouse Rd	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,647 (+3%)	2mo	$325,000	$197	62
38 Cornell Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-13%)	2mo	$225,000	$161	62
201 Slate Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,438 (-10%)	4mo	$240,000	$167	61
306 Walnut Creek Ct	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,770 (+10%)	4mo	$259,900	$147	56
12 Cornell Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-13%)	3mo	$245,000	$175	51
1 Berkshire Dr	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,416 (-12%)	2mo	$132,000	$93	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,691
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $38,601
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28546

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 604
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,920 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,104/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,406

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $508	-5% $457	+0% $406	+5% $355	+10% $304
Rent	-10% $254	-5% $330	+0% $406	+5% $482	+10% $558
Rate	-1.0pp $497	-0.5pp $452	base $406	+0.5pp $359	+1.0pp $312

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 White Stone Ct Jacksonville, NC	4.0	2.0	1460	$2,150	$1.47	21d	1	0.38mi
303 Elk Ct Jacksonville, NC	3.0	2.5	1716	$2,000	$1.17	14d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   price $180,000
3. 2026-02-10
   listed $195,000 Active
4. 2021-07-14
   soldstatus $170,000 479-char remark

   Show marketing remark (479 chars)

   Adorable home with 3 bedrooms and a large bonus room , conveniently located in Jacksonville , outside the city limits. New roof in 2019, New HVAC in 2018. Lots of space in the kitchen area with a large counter and cabinet space. The Master bedroom has a large closet, and the laundry room is located in the hallway. Very spacious backyard is perfect for your pets and children to run around and enjoy themselves. Very easy commute to all area military bases, stores and the mall.

5. 2021-07-14
   soldstatus $170,000

   Show marketing remark (479 chars)

   Adorable home with 3 bedrooms and a large bonus room , conveniently located in Jacksonville , outside the city limits. New roof in 2019, New HVAC in 2018. Lots of space in the kitchen area with a large counter and cabinet space. The Master bedroom has a large closet, and the laundry room is located in the hallway. Very spacious backyard is perfect for your pets and children to run around and enjoy themselves. Very easy commute to all area military bases, stores and the mall.

6. 2021-03-03
   listed $165,000 479-char remark

   Show marketing remark (479 chars)

   Adorable home with 3 bedrooms and a large bonus room , conveniently located in Jacksonville , outside the city limits. New roof in 2019, New HVAC in 2018. Lots of space in the kitchen area with a large counter and cabinet space. The Master bedroom has a large closet, and the laundry room is located in the hallway. Very spacious backyard is perfect for your pets and children to run around and enjoy themselves. Very easy commute to all area military bases, stores and the mall.

7. 2006-12-18
   soldstatus $113,000
8. 1988-12-22
   soldstatus $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,104 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,476 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$372/yr (+$31/mo · 33.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,041
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$1,104
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,843
• − Management: −$1,843
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $2,031
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$488
• After-tax cash flow: $4,384/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onslow County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703450
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,076
• Composite: 38.66/100
• National rank: #4148
• State rank: #84 of 178 in NC

Livability — Piney Green

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #524
• US rank: #19401

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Piney Green, NC
• County: Onslow County · 164,453 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 47,256
• Household income: $63,561
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1830.0

Population outlook (Onslow County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,789 people
• By 2030: 194,463 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 193,629 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 193,248 · +1.8%
• By 2075: 196,995 · +3.8%
• By 2100: 201,513 · +6.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onslow

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 31.5% · R 67.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.5pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+34.6 2012: R+27.0 2008: R+21.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.75%
• Current HPI: 211.9993
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.86%
• Metro: Jacksonville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+205.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $180,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $195,000 Hive MLS
• 2021-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-14 Sold (MLS) $170,000 Hive MLS
• 2021-03-03 Listed $165,000 Hive MLS
• 2006-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $113,000 Public Records
• 1988-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,104 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.