452 N 68th Ln #153 · Phoenix, AZ 85043

$55,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured · 21 Days on market

Built 1974 Good condition 1,800 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully remodeled manufactured home featuring 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a bonus room ideal for a home office, hobby room, or additional living space. This move-in ready home offers an open floor plan with a spacious living area flowing into the upgraded kitchen, complete with modern cabinetry, updated countertops, and ample storage. Interior upgrades include updated flooring, remodeled bathrooms with stylish finishes, and spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a large closet and private bath. Exterior features include covered parking, low-maintenance landscaping, and a large storage shed/workshop area. Well-maintained and ready for its next owner!

Key facts

• 1,800 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Spa is heated
• Financial info: Current financing: Other
• HOA & community: Land lease: $1,060 monthly; Association fee includes: Other (see remarks); Community pool and community spa; Pickleball courts; Community laundry; Community media room; Biking/walking path; Near bus stop

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1 open parking space; 1 carport space
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Vertical siding, aluminum siding, and wood frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: City view; Gravel/stone front

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms (one bedroom listed on the first level)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Storage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $935 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.7% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Tolleson Union High School District (4288) (suburban): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #188 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Sierra Linda High School (math 10% / reading 14%, grade F, #287 of 381 statewide, top 76%, 1,975 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $54,175 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.84%
• DSCR: 4.24
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 69.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.97×
• Total profit: $45,773
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.35×
• Total profit: $97,775
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85043

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,664 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $935

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6832 W Fillmore St #174 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	840	$1,650	$1.96	1d	1	0.19mi
6901 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1043	$1,593	$1.53	1d	1	0.64mi
6901 W McDowell Rd Unit M 12-106 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1043	$2,045	$1.96	1d	1	0.67mi
6901 W McDowell Rd Unit 25-104 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	612	$1,160	$1.90	1d	1	0.67mi
7077 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	783	$1,620	$2.07	1d	14	0.69mi
6755 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	564	$1,449	$2.57	1d	15	0.74mi
6515 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	991	$1,390	$1.40	1d	7	0.81mi
6441 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	733	$1,231	$1.68	1d	18	0.86mi
1653 N 69th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0	1026	$1,949	$1.90	1d	1	0.88mi
6405 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	592	$1,192	$2.01	1d	36	0.93mi
6231 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	752	$1,681	$2.23	1d	49	1.05mi
7725 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	771	$1,457	$1.89	1d	50	1.19mi
6161 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	952	$1,867	$1.96	24d	1	1.21mi
6161 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,639	$1.66	1d	38	1.21mi
7850 W McDowell Rd Unit 1 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	799	$1,363	$1.71	16d	1	1.36mi
5775 W Roosevelt St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	560	$1,680	$3.00	1d	20	1.41mi
7850 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	799	$1,363	$1.71	1d	1	1.42mi
5821 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	998	$1,912	$1.92	1d	11	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $55,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $55,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-28
    listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,973
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,598
• − Management: −$1,598
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $10,997
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,639
• After-tax cash flow: $8,579/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home offers a good condition with modern updates and a spacious floor plan. It is ready for its next owner with minor cosmetic improvements to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet can be worn and replacing it improves comfort and appearance
• Both Install new window treatments — New blinds or curtains can improve energy efficiency and aesthetics
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet can be worn and replacing it improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Both Install new window treatments — New blinds or curtains can improve energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tolleson Union High School District (4288)
• NCES district ID: 0408520
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $51,925
• Composite: 16.41/100
• National rank: #9193
• State rank: #188 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 41,331
• Household income: $78,257
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1019.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 75% Two or more races 33% White 11% Black 11% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 57%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.22%
• Current HPI: 309.495
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.83%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $55,000 ARMLS