295 W Placita De Los Anillos · Green Valley, AZ 85614

$169,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,059 sqft · Condo public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1976 $45/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bed, 2-ba end unit located at Casa Paloma II. This home offers privacy, comfort, and thoughtful upgrades. Enjoy tile flooring throughout, a bright and versatile Arizona room, the convenience of an in-unit, washer and dryer, newer refrigerator conveys, making this home truly move-in ready. The property has a private front gated yard as well as a rear gated yard accessible directly from the Arizona room, providing ideal outdoor space for relaxing, gardening, or entertaining. Major mechanical peace of mind comes with a newer air conditioning system installed in 2024, ensuring efficient cooling during Arizona's warm months. Seller financing available!

Key facts

• Rear gated yard
• Arizona room
• Tile flooring

Tags

• TILE FLOORING
• ARIZONA ROOM
• IN-UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• NEWER REFRIGERATOR
• PRIVATE FRONT GATED YARD
• REAR GATED YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned Green Valley - CR4
• HOA & community: Located in Casa Paloma II community; HOA covers common area maintenance; HOA amenities include clubhouse, pool, recreation room, tennis courts and pickleball; HOA fee: $45 annually; HOA transfer fee: $502

Exterior

• Parking: Detached covered parking; 1 carport space
• Utilities: Water from local water company; Sewer connected; TEP guarantee for electric
• Home design: Townhouse; Single-story; East-facing
• Construction: Stucco construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Masonry fence; Metal roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Exhaust fan; Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Electric oven; Microwave; ENERGY STAR qualified refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One-level living
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double pane windows; Enclosed patio; Masonry fencing; Adjacent to wash; Borders common area; Corner lot; Located on a cul-de-sac; Paved road access; Road maintained by HOA; Level-accessible
• Laundry & utility: Washer in laundry closet; Laundry located in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 416 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $123k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,417 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.16%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-18,119
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $8,368
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85614

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,484 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $960/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,376

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $182	-5% $134	+0% $86	+5% $38	+10% $-10
Rent	-10% $-32	-5% $27	+0% $86	+5% $144	+10% $203
Rate	-1.0pp $171	-0.5pp $129	base $86	+0.5pp $42	+1.0pp $-3

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
390 N Calle de las Profetas Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	965	$1,250	$1.30	5d	1	0.26mi
359 N Calle del Chancero Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1061	$1,475	$1.39	17d	1	0.31mi
327 N Calle del Chancero Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1343	$1,400	$1.04	5d	1	0.33mi
230 N Calle Acuarela Unit 230 Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	965	$1,400	$1.45	5d	1	0.39mi
61 N Las Yucas Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,350	$1.22	4d	1	0.52mi
457 W Windham Blvd Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1369	$2,300	$1.68	3d	1	0.60mi
724 W Rio Moctezuma Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1234	$1,450	$1.18	12d	1	0.89mi
337 S Paseo Cerro Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	784	$1,300	$1.66	25d	1	0.91mi
348 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	991	$1,065	$1.07	18d	1	1.04mi
1567 N Paseo La Tinaja Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1071	$1,250	$1.17	3d	1	1.05mi
870 W Calle de Emilia Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	1384	$1,650	$1.19	3d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,900 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $169,900 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,900 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-04-19
    price $179,900
17. 2026-04-09
    price $184,900
18. 2026-03-26
    price $189,900
19. 2026-03-23
    status Active
20. 2026-03-04
    historical
21. 2026-02-27
    listed $199,900 Active
22. 2019-02-28
    soldstatus $123,000
23. 2019-01-21
    historical
24. 2018-12-11
    listed $129,900 Active
25. 1997-08-11
    soldstatus $73,000
26. 1992-01-29
    soldstatus $52,500
27. 1982-11-01
    soldstatus $54,000
28. 1979-10-01
    soldstatus $53,400
29. 1977-12-01
    soldstatus $37,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $960 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,121 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$161/yr (+$13/mo · 16.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,810
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$960
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,425
• − Management: −$1,425
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$1,849
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$444
• After-tax cash flow: $1,472/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 25,381
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,381
• Household income: $64,879
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 860.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.05%
• Current HPI: 250.5933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+379.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $179,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $184,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $189,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-23 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-04 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-27 Listed $199,900 MLSSAZ
• 2019-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $123,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-21 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2018-12-11 Listed $129,900 MLSSAZ
• 1997-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 1992-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records
• 1982-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 1979-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $53,400 Public Records
• 1977-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $960 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.