10264 Dacey Dr · Dellwood, MO 63136

$99,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1959 6,825 sqft lot Est $142k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms and over 1040 sf ranch home nestled in the great neighborhood of Dellwood. 1 car garage and driveway. Quiet street with friendly neighbors.

Key facts

• 6,825 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1959

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Has garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Concrete construction
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms — all on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Central air; Natural gas heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $326 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#239 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lemasters Elem. (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,058 of 1,115 statewide, top 96%, 295 students, 99% FRL); Riverview Gardens Sr. High (math 2% / reading 18%, grade F, #501 of 521 statewide, top 97%, 1,331 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $99k implies a 450% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.13%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $142,480
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10257 Dacey Dr	0.04mi	3/1.5	1,014 (-2%)	2mo	$120,000	$118	92
1923 Nashua Dr	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,014 (-2%)	1mo	$149,900	$148	88
10269 Dacey Dr	0.03mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,014 (-2%)	1mo	$169,000	$167	87
10129 Ventura Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,055 (+1%)	2mo	$129,900	$123	76
10418 Quaker Dr	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,014 (-2%)	2mo	$64,900	$64	69
1646 Hudson Rd	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,014 (-2%)	2mo	$164,500	$162	69
10515 Alliance Dr	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,014 (-2%)	0mo	$112,900	$111	68
10231 Monarch Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,073 (+3%)	1mo	$189,999	$177	57
1716 Atmore Dr	0.54mi	3/1.0	950 (-9%)	2mo	$130,000	$137	56
1715 Hudson Rd	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,145 (+10%)	1mo	$125,000	$109	54
10228 Viscount Dr	0.67mi	3/1.5	925 (-11%)	2mo	$155,000	$168	48
10139 Edgefield Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+10%)	0mo	$119,900	$105	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $39,653
• Equity at exit: $48,984

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.02×
• Total profit: $111,338
• Equity at exit: $79,167

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,332 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,981/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $918

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $382	-5% $354	+0% $326	+5% $298	+10% $270
Rent	-10% $221	-5% $274	+0% $326	+5% $379	+10% $432
Rate	-1.0pp $376	-0.5pp $352	base $326	+0.5pp $301	+1.0pp $275

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
62 Capitol Hill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,250	$1.01	44d	1	0.04mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	24d	1	0.15mi
10304 Bon Oak Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,250	$0.83	44d	1	0.34mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	44d	1	0.43mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	24d	1	0.43mi
10124 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	3d	1	0.43mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	24d	1	0.47mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	8d	1	0.52mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,776	$1.18	44d	1	0.63mi
1547 Babcock Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,480	$1.46	44d	1	0.70mi
1654 Mowbry Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	24d	1	0.71mi
10322 Monarch Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,728	$1.61	24d	1	0.73mi
1926 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1095	$995	$0.91	15d	1	0.75mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	24d	1	0.76mi
10329 Chesley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	24d	1	0.77mi
10504 Baron Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	8d	1	0.79mi
10409 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,100	$1.21	22d	1	0.81mi
10512 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,195	$1.35	15d	1	0.85mi
10365 Lord Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,075	$1.24	2d	1	0.87mi
10113 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	882	$775	$0.88	44d	1	0.92mi
13061 Lord Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,040	$1.16	22d	1	0.92mi
9827 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	8d	1	0.93mi
9868 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	44d	1	0.94mi
9823 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	44d	1	0.94mi
10112 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	8d	1	0.94mi
2257 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	24d	1	0.94mi
10404 Earl Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	4d	1	0.95mi
9840 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	44d	1	0.96mi
9812 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,495	$1.00	22d	1	0.97mi
1733 Kappel Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	24d	1	0.98mi
10501 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1140	$1,090	$0.96	44d	1	0.99mi
9839 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	44d	1	1.00mi
2745 Rottingdean Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$975	$1.18	44d	1	1.02mi
2008 Kappel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	858	$1,175	$1.37	24d	1	1.04mi
9850 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	44d	1	1.05mi
2326 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,050	$0.99	24d	1	1.05mi
10113 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	770	$1,325	$1.72	44d	1	1.08mi
9709 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	44d	1	1.08mi
9845 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	13d	1	1.09mi
2544 Netherton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,945	$1.51	2d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-24
    historical $99,000
16. 2016-12-08
    soldstatus $18,000
17. 2006-07-26
    soldstatus
18. 1996-10-25
    soldstatus $61,900
19. 1996-10-25
    soldstatus $61,900
20. 1996-07-23
    soldstatus
21. 1996-07-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,981 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,981 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,978
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,981
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,278
• − Management: −$1,278
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $2,520
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$605
• After-tax cash flow: $3,312/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Dellwood

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #239
• US rank: #11618

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dellwood, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+59.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Coming Soon $99,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 2006-07-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $61,900 Public Records
• 1996-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $61,900 Public Records
• 1996-07-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-07-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,981 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.