Iris Plan · Punta Gorda, FL 33955

$294,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · SingleFamily · 393 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 393 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address listed as 12191 Gasparilla Ave, Punta Gorda FL 33955
• Financial info: List price $294,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan (Iris)
• Construction: New construction (plan built recently)
• Exterior features: Plan named Iris; New construction plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (approx. 2052 total living area)

🏗️ New construction. The $294,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $332,424.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-218 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.8% in Punta Gorda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#225 in FL, #3,567 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Charlotte (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #22 of 73 in FL (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: East Elementary School (math 67% / reading 68%, grade B+, #435 of 2,144 statewide, top 21%, 761 students, 52% FRL); Punta Gorda Middle School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #209 of 571 statewide, top 37%, 1,120 students, 41% FRL); Charlotte High School (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 1,994 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1490 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,585 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (703 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charlotte County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 393 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 393 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.81%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $332,424
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11828 Cloverly Ln	0.57mi	4/2.5	1,874 (-9%)	2mo	$289,000	$154	55
28595 Crossfield Ln	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,032 (-1%)	14mo	$330,000	$162	50
11760 Birdsong Loop	0.63mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,198 (+7%)	2mo	$379,499	$173	48
11835 Cloverly Ln	0.58mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,326 (+13%)	1mo	$300,000	$129	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-67,721
• Equity at exit: $49,565

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-76,698
• Equity at exit: $28,742

Cash invested: $93,079 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33955

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Active inventory: 1490
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,632 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,743
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$416 /mo · $4,986/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $-218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,908

Max offer price $300,859

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $12	-5% $-103	+0% $-218	+5% $-333	+10% $-448
Rent	-10% $-426	-5% $-322	+0% $-218	+5% $-114	+10% $-10
Rate	-1.0pp $-51	-0.5pp $-134	base $-218	+0.5pp $-304	+1.0pp $-392

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,106
• Closing costs: $9,973
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12378 Paramount Dr Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	3.0	1836	$2,295	$1.25	23d	1	0.42mi
11827 Cloverly Ln Punta Gorda, FL	5.0	2.5	2088	$2,095	$1.00	23d	1	0.61mi
11812 Cloverly Ln Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	2.5	1875	$2,150	$1.15	23d	1	0.62mi
11795 Cloverly Ln Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	2.5	2028	$2,075	$1.02	23d	1	0.67mi
13263 Valrico Ter Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,500	$0.92	23d	1	1.18mi
27117 Treadmill Dr Punta Gorda, FL	5.0	3.0	2300	$3,500	$1.52	23d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $294,900 Active 393 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,900 Active 390 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,900 Active 389 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,900 Active 388 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,900 Active 387 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $294,900 Active 385 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,900 Active 384 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $294,900 Active 382 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,900 Active 381 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $294,900 Active 380 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $294,900 Active 376 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,900 Active 374 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,900 Active 373 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,900 Active 372 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $294,900 Active 371 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,582
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,621
• − Property taxes: −$4,986
• − Insurance: −$1,662
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,527
• − Management: −$2,527
• − Depreciation: −$9,671
• Taxable loss: −$8,411
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,019
• After-tax cash flow: $-599/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charlotte
• NCES district ID: 1200240
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,864
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2586
• State rank: #22 of 73 in FL

Livability — Punta Gorda

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #225
• US rank: #3567

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Charlotte County · 196,994 people
• City population: 68,831
• Metro: Punta Gorda, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,399
• Household income: $76,943
• Rent vs Own: 9.5% rent · 90.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 226.0

Population outlook (Charlotte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,646 people
• By 2030: 210,507 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 230,857 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 247,148 · +24.4%
• By 2075: 281,777 · +41.8%
• By 2100: 293,609 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Charlotte

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.7% · R 66.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.7pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+26.6 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+14.3 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.71%
• Current HPI: 242.9043
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Punta Gorda, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B