2500 N Highway 59 #270 · Merced, CA 95348

$79,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 828 sqft · Manufactured · 268 Days on market

Built 1993 2,774 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cozy and well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home is perfect for a couple looking to retire and enjoy peaceful living. Located in a friendly park with easy access to shopping and freeways, convenience is right at your doorstep. The home is move-in ready, offering comfort and simplicity. Seller is motivated and ready to make a dealdon't miss this opportunity!

Key facts

• 2,774 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 1993

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area and lot size source: seller; Parcel number available
• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $600 (includes sewer, trash, water)
• HOA & community: Senior community; Park name: Holiday Mobil/Senior Community; Community features include valley setting

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Holiday Mobil/Senior Community park
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story mobile home (13' x 60'); Mobile home remains on property
• Construction: Year built (per seller)
• Exterior features: Community pool; Back yard

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating
• Interior features: Living room entry
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $550 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 3.4% in Merced — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#153 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Merced Union High (urban): math 20% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #301 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 268 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $79k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 268 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.50%
• DSCR: 2.62
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $17,836
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $43,605
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95348

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,543 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $550

Break-even live

Break-even rent $846

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $605	-5% $578	+0% $550	+5% $523	+10% $496
Rent	-10% $429	-5% $490	+0% $550	+5% $611	+10% $672
Rate	-1.0pp $590	-0.5pp $571	base $550	+0.5pp $530	+1.0pp $509

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2908 Willowbrook Dr Unit 2962-28 Merced, CA	2.0	2.0	1091	$1,775	$1.63	21d	1	0.24mi
1840 U St Unit 3 Merced, CA	1.0	1.0	594	$1,175	$1.98	14d	1	0.49mi
1760 Conestoga Dr Apt B Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	650	$1,350	$2.08	14d	1	0.49mi
1836 Cheyenne Dr Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1122	$1,929	$1.72	14d	1	0.51mi
1335 W 23rd St Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,550	$1.85	14d	1	0.51mi
1407 Madison Ct Merced, CA	2.0	2.0	850	$1,599	$1.88	21d	1	0.72mi
3219 Denver Ave Unit 3221 Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	14d	1	0.78mi
3270 Denver Ave Unit 3 Merced, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	14d	1	0.83mi
929 W 22nd St Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	936	$1,595	$1.70	14d	1	0.86mi
3270 Meadows Ave Merced, CA	1.0	1.0	560	$1,210	$2.16	14d	7	0.87mi
1859 Heritage Dr Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1022	$1,700	$1.66	14d	1	0.88mi
820 W 23rd St Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,750	$1.73	14d	1	0.97mi
2415 O St Unit 2419 Merced, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,500	$1.50	14d	1	1.01mi
1163 Loughborough Dr Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	830	$1,400	$1.69	14d	1	1.02mi
3310 R St Unit A Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,400	$1.65	14d	1	1.14mi
3372 San Mateo Ct Merced, CA	2.0	2.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	14d	1	1.25mi
925 Loughborough Dr Merced, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	770	$1,350	$1.75	14d	3	1.27mi
515 W Main St Unit 301 Merced, CA	1.0	1.0	646	$1,475	$2.28	14d	1	1.27mi
777 Loughborough Dr Merced, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	810	$1,139	$1.41	14d	2	1.35mi
2142 K St Merced, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,079	$1.54	14d	1	1.37mi
2128 K St Merced, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	14d	1	1.38mi
341 W 21st St Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,050	$1.50	21d	1	1.38mi
669 Loughborough Dr Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	830	$1,450	$1.75	14d	1	1.42mi
669 Loughborough Dr Unit 689-04 Merced, CA	1.0	1.0	530	$1,240	$2.34	14d	1	1.42mi
1922 Martin Luther King Jr Way Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,375	$1.53	14d	1	1.46mi
536 W 10th St Unit 3 Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	623	$1,300	$2.09	14d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 268 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 267 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 266 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 265 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,000 Active 263 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 262 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,000 Active 260 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 259 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 258 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,000 Active 257 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,000 Active 253 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,000 Active 252 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,000 Active 251 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 250 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,000 Active 249 DOM
16. 2025-09-24
    listed $79,000 Active 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    This cozy and well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home is perfect for a couple looking to retire and enjoy peaceful living. Located in a friendly park with easy access to shopping and freeways, convenience is right at your doorstep. The home is move-in ready, offering comfort and simplicity. Seller is motivated and ready to make a dealdon't miss this opportunity!

17. 2025-09-23
    listed $79,000 Active
18. 2025-09-11
    historical
19. 2024-11-02
    price $79,900
20. 2024-11-02
    price $79,900
21. 2024-09-11
    listed $80,000 Active
22. 2024-08-21
    soldstatus $30,000 Closed Sale
23. 2024-07-23
    status Pending Sale
24. 2024-07-08
    price $35,000
25. 2024-05-22
    price $40,000
26. 2024-05-22
    listed $45,000 Active
27. 2024-04-24
    historical
28. 2024-03-12
    price $40,000
29. 2024-01-24
    listed $45,000 Active
30. 2024-01-22
    historical
31. 2024-01-17
    status Active
32. 2024-01-15
    historical
33. 2023-08-01
    price $35,000
34. 2023-03-20
    price $45,000
35. 2022-12-07
    listed $50,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AO · 64% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,512
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$1,862
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,481
• − Management: −$1,481
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $5,779
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,387
• After-tax cash flow: $5,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merced Union High
• NCES district ID: 0624660
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,977
• Composite: 28.11/100
• National rank: #6823
• State rank: #301 of 517 in CA

Livability — Merced

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #153
• US rank: #5111

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Merced, CA
• County: Merced County · 205,386 people
• City population: 112,228
• Metro: Merced, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,540
• Household income: $64,944
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1408.0

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 23% Asian 16% Two or more races 15% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 32% Other Asian/Pacific 8% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -323.74%
• Current HPI: 247.7309
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.77%
• Metro: Merced, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+58.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-24 Listed $79,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-09-23 Listed $79,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-11 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-11-02 Price Changed $79,900 CRMLS
• 2024-11-02 Price Changed $79,900 FRESNOMLS
• 2024-09-11 Listed $80,000 CRMLS
• 2024-08-21 Sold (MLS) $30,000 CRMLS
• 2024-07-23 Pending — CRMLS
• 2024-07-08 Price Changed $35,000 CRMLS
• 2024-05-22 Price Changed $40,000 CRMLS
• 2024-05-22 Listed $45,000 CRMLS
• 2024-04-24 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-03-12 Price Changed $40,000 CRMLS
• 2024-01-24 Listed $45,000 CRMLS
• 2024-01-22 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-01-17 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2024-01-15 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-08-01 Price Changed $35,000 CRMLS
• 2023-03-20 Price Changed $45,000 CRMLS
• 2022-12-07 Listed $50,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2020): $133 · -4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.