3550 S Vale Ave · Knik-Fairview, AK 99623

$506,000

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,096 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2005 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Well-maintained duplex in Wasilla built in 2005 featuring two ranch-style units, each offering 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a 2-car garage. Situated on a full acre with convenient access to schools, grocery stores, and everyday amenities. Great investment or owner-occupy opportunity with spacious layouts and a desirable location.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 4 garage spots
• Built 2005

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 4 garage spaces in an attached garage; 6 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Multi-family property; Built in 2005; Wood frame construction; Block foundation
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Block foundation; Roof: Composition/Shingle/Asphalt; Year built: 2005
• Exterior features: Gravel road access; Composition/Shingle/Asphalt roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Carpet and tile flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $506k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-299/yr) — negative. Per door: $-12/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $502k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $414k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $414k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.3% in Knik-Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Goose Bay Elementary (336 students, 42% FRL); Joe Redington Senior Jr/Sr High School (math 27% / reading 45%, grade F, #27 of 61 statewide, top 43%, 556 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 33% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,138/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 285% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $413,800 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.21%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-82,932
• Equity at exit: $75,446

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-71,590
• Equity at exit: $43,750

Cash invested: $141,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99623

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 20.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,138 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,654
• Tax from tax record: −$430 /mo · $5,155/yr
• Insurance: −$211
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$869
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,170

Max offer price $501,604

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $262	-5% $118	+0% $-25	+5% $-168	+10% $-311
Rent	-10% $-352	-5% $-188	+0% $-25	+5% $139	+10% $302
Rate	-1.0pp $230	-0.5pp $104	base $-25	+0.5pp $-156	+1.0pp $-289

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$4,138
Total (2 units)			$4,138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $126,500
• Closing costs: $15,180
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-30
   pricestatus $506,000 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-05-23
   listed $485,000 Active
3. 2022-06-14
   soldstatus
4. 2022-05-23
   soldstatus
5. 2022-03-31
   status Pending
6. 2022-03-18
   listed $450,000 Active
7. 2020-08-25
   soldstatus
8. 2020-07-09
   status Pending
9. 2020-07-02
   price $314,900
10. 2020-02-14
    listed $319,900 Active
11. 2019-10-17
    soldstatus
12. 2013-08-01
    listed $275,000
13. 2009-03-11
    listed $189,200
14. 2008-09-30
    listed $223,999
15. 2006-10-18
    listed $250,000
16. 2006-05-08
    soldstatus
17. 2005-07-08
    listed $249,900
18. 2005-03-02
    listed $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,155 · $430/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,588 · $466/mo
• Expected delta: +$433/yr (+$36/mo · 8.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,656
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,344
• − Property taxes: −$5,155
• − Insurance: −$2,530
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,972
• − Management: −$3,972
• − Depreciation: −$14,720
• Taxable loss: −$9,037
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,169
• After-tax cash flow: $1,870/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Knik-Fairview

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Knik-Fairview, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 23,424
• Household income: $88,799
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 285.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 10% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.82%
• Current HPI: 200.2242
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+3630.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $485,000 AKMLS
• 2022-06-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-31 Pending — AKMLS
• 2022-03-18 Listed $450,000 AKMLS
• 2020-08-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-07-09 Pending — AKMLS
• 2020-07-02 Price Changed $314,900 AKMLS
• 2020-02-14 Listed $319,900 AKMLS
• 2019-10-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-08-01 Listed $275,000 AKMLS
• 2009-03-11 Listed $189,200 AKMLS
• 2008-09-30 Listed $223,999 AKMLS
• 2006-10-18 Listed $250,000 AKMLS
• 2006-05-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-07-08 Listed $249,900 AKMLS
• 2005-03-02 Listed $13,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,155 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.