2020 Kem · Lake Isabella, CA 93240

$194,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,215 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1957 6,534 sqft lot $160/sqft · 5% below area Est $205k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Freshly painted and move-in ready, this inviting 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfort, flexibility, and everyday convenience. The layout features a welcoming main living area, complemented by a separate fireplace room-perfect for cozy evenings, entertaining guests, or creating a second living space. A nearby half bath sits adjacent to a versatile bonus room, ideal for a home office, hobby area, or guest overflow. The kitchen provides generous counter space for meal preparation and gatherings, while a dedicated laundry area adds practical functionality. The two bedrooms and full bath are thoughtfully situated to provide separation and comfort. Step outside to a fully fenced yard, perfect for pets or outdoor enjoyment, along with a one-car garage offering parking or additional storage. Conveniently located close to town with easy access to parks, a skate park, and a dog park, this home blends comfort, convenience, and versatility. Come see all it has to offer.

Key facts

• One-car garage
• Bonus room
• Easy access to park

Tags

• FIREPLACE ROOM
• BONUS ROOM
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY AREA
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• ONE-CAR GARAGE
• EASY ACCESS TO PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#999 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $194k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 11→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,106 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.89%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,611
• List price: $194,000
• Delta: -5.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2101 Kem Ave	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (+4%)	5mo	$230,000	$183	82
2109 Kem	0.07mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,388 (+14%)	7mo	$190,000	$137	58
2032 Rainbow Dr	0.59mi	2/1.0	1,128 (-7%)	1mo	$178,500	$158	56
2701 Lupine St	0.66mi	2/1.0	1,280 (+5%)	14mo	$198,000	$155	44
2556 Pearl Harbor Dr Dr	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,394 (+15%)	11mo	$330,000	$237	44
2905 Scovern St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,342 (+10%)	13mo	$210,000	$156	42
2621 Lupine St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,079 (-11%)	8mo	$187,500	$174	39
2720 Webb Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0	1,136 (-6%)	21mo	$210,000	$185	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $56,272
• Equity at exit: $116,484

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.99×
• Total profit: $162,639
• Equity at exit: $206,670

Cash invested: $54,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93240

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,641 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,351/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,533

Max offer price $194,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,500
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $194,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $194,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $194,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $194,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $194,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $194,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $194,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    price $194,000 973-char remark

    Show marketing remark (869 chars)

    Freshly painted and move-in ready, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers both comfort and versatility. The layout features a welcoming main living area along with a separate fireplace roomperfect for cozy evenings or added entertaining space. A convenient half bath is located adjacent to a bonus room, ideal for a home office, hobby space, or guest overflow. The kitchen provides ample counter space for meal prep and gatherings, while a dedicated laundry area adds everyday functionality. The two bedrooms and full bath with tub are thoughtfully positioned for privacy. Outside, the fully fenced yard is perfect for pets, and the one-car garage offers secure parking or additional storage. Located close to town, with easy access to a park, skate park, and dog park, this home combines comfort, convenience, and flexibility. Come take a look and see all it has to offer.

17. 2026-05-05
    price $194,000 869-char remark

    Show marketing remark (869 chars)

    Freshly painted and move-in ready, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers both comfort and versatility. The layout features a welcoming main living area along with a separate fireplace roomperfect for cozy evenings or added entertaining space. A convenient half bath is located adjacent to a bonus room, ideal for a home office, hobby space, or guest overflow. The kitchen provides ample counter space for meal prep and gatherings, while a dedicated laundry area adds everyday functionality. The two bedrooms and full bath with tub are thoughtfully positioned for privacy. Outside, the fully fenced yard is perfect for pets, and the one-car garage offers secure parking or additional storage. Located close to town, with easy access to a park, skate park, and dog park, this home combines comfort, convenience, and flexibility. Come take a look and see all it has to offer.

18. 2026-04-22
    status Active 973-char remark

    Show marketing remark (869 chars)

    Freshly painted and move-in ready, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers both comfort and versatility. The layout features a welcoming main living area along with a separate fireplace roomperfect for cozy evenings or added entertaining space. A convenient half bath is located adjacent to a bonus room, ideal for a home office, hobby space, or guest overflow. The kitchen provides ample counter space for meal prep and gatherings, while a dedicated laundry area adds everyday functionality. The two bedrooms and full bath with tub are thoughtfully positioned for privacy. Outside, the fully fenced yard is perfect for pets, and the one-car garage offers secure parking or additional storage. Located close to town, with easy access to a park, skate park, and dog park, this home combines comfort, convenience, and flexibility. Come take a look and see all it has to offer.

19. 2026-04-22
    status Active 869-char remark

    Show marketing remark (869 chars)

    Freshly painted and move-in ready, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers both comfort and versatility. The layout features a welcoming main living area along with a separate fireplace roomperfect for cozy evenings or added entertaining space. A convenient half bath is located adjacent to a bonus room, ideal for a home office, hobby space, or guest overflow. The kitchen provides ample counter space for meal prep and gatherings, while a dedicated laundry area adds everyday functionality. The two bedrooms and full bath with tub are thoughtfully positioned for privacy. Outside, the fully fenced yard is perfect for pets, and the one-car garage offers secure parking or additional storage. Located close to town, with easy access to a park, skate park, and dog park, this home combines comfort, convenience, and flexibility. Come take a look and see all it has to offer.

20. 2026-04-03
    status Pending 973-char remark

    Show marketing remark (869 chars)

    Freshly painted and move-in ready, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers both comfort and versatility. The layout features a welcoming main living area along with a separate fireplace roomperfect for cozy evenings or added entertaining space. A convenient half bath is located adjacent to a bonus room, ideal for a home office, hobby space, or guest overflow. The kitchen provides ample counter space for meal prep and gatherings, while a dedicated laundry area adds everyday functionality. The two bedrooms and full bath with tub are thoughtfully positioned for privacy. Outside, the fully fenced yard is perfect for pets, and the one-car garage offers secure parking or additional storage. Located close to town, with easy access to a park, skate park, and dog park, this home combines comfort, convenience, and flexibility. Come take a look and see all it has to offer.

21. 2026-04-03
    status Pending 869-char remark

    Show marketing remark (869 chars)

    Freshly painted and move-in ready, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers both comfort and versatility. The layout features a welcoming main living area along with a separate fireplace roomperfect for cozy evenings or added entertaining space. A convenient half bath is located adjacent to a bonus room, ideal for a home office, hobby space, or guest overflow. The kitchen provides ample counter space for meal prep and gatherings, while a dedicated laundry area adds everyday functionality. The two bedrooms and full bath with tub are thoughtfully positioned for privacy. Outside, the fully fenced yard is perfect for pets, and the one-car garage offers secure parking or additional storage. Located close to town, with easy access to a park, skate park, and dog park, this home combines comfort, convenience, and flexibility. Come take a look and see all it has to offer.

22. 2026-03-28
    listed $199,000 Active 973-char remark

    Show marketing remark (869 chars)

    Freshly painted and move-in ready, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers both comfort and versatility. The layout features a welcoming main living area along with a separate fireplace roomperfect for cozy evenings or added entertaining space. A convenient half bath is located adjacent to a bonus room, ideal for a home office, hobby space, or guest overflow. The kitchen provides ample counter space for meal prep and gatherings, while a dedicated laundry area adds everyday functionality. The two bedrooms and full bath with tub are thoughtfully positioned for privacy. Outside, the fully fenced yard is perfect for pets, and the one-car garage offers secure parking or additional storage. Located close to town, with easy access to a park, skate park, and dog park, this home combines comfort, convenience, and flexibility. Come take a look and see all it has to offer.

23. 2026-03-28
    listed $199,000 Active 869-char remark

    Show marketing remark (869 chars)

    Freshly painted and move-in ready, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers both comfort and versatility. The layout features a welcoming main living area along with a separate fireplace roomperfect for cozy evenings or added entertaining space. A convenient half bath is located adjacent to a bonus room, ideal for a home office, hobby space, or guest overflow. The kitchen provides ample counter space for meal prep and gatherings, while a dedicated laundry area adds everyday functionality. The two bedrooms and full bath with tub are thoughtfully positioned for privacy. Outside, the fully fenced yard is perfect for pets, and the one-car garage offers secure parking or additional storage. Located close to town, with easy access to a park, skate park, and dog park, this home combines comfort, convenience, and flexibility. Come take a look and see all it has to offer.

24. 2015-08-18
    soldstatus $86,000
25. 1991-02-01
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,351 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,474 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$124/yr (+$10/mo · 9.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 11 d/yr ≥100°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,693
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,867
• − Property taxes: −$1,351
• − Insurance: −$970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,575
• − Management: −$1,575
• − Depreciation: −$5,644
• Taxable loss: −$2,289
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$549
• After-tax cash flow: $1,578/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lake Isabella

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #999
• US rank: #24814

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Isabella, CA
• City population: 5,622
• Population (ZIP): 5,622

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.55%
• Current HPI: 341.2481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+288.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $194,000 SSMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $194,000 GEMLS
• 2026-04-22 Relisted — SSMLS
• 2026-04-22 Relisted — GEMLS
• 2026-04-03 Pending — SSMLS
• 2026-04-03 Pending — GEMLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $199,000 SSMLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $199,000 GEMLS
• 2015-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records
• 1991-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,351 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.