600 13th St · Ballinger, TX 76821

$69,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 347 Days on market

Built 1940 0.39 ac lot Est $124k · 44% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a property with lots of possibilities. This 2 bedroom 1 bath sits on approximately 1/2 acre with two other buildings that could be coverted to housing or storage. Property has a fenced in yard, covered patio and storage uniits. House is nestled in among some mature trees. which provides privacy. Looking for some room and a property with possibilities don't miss this one.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Covered patio
• Storage units

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• FENCED YARD
• MATURE TREES
• STORAGE UNITS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $259 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($967 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 4.9% in Ballinger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Ballinger ISD (town): math 33% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #496 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ballinger El (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 368 students, 68% FRL); Ballinger J H (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 179 students, 61% FRL); Ballinger H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 266 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Runnels County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($481 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (4.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 347 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 347 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.98%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $123,984
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
903 N 4th St	0.72mi	2/1.0	986 (-2%)	4mo	$99,900	$101	59
409 N Broadway St	0.52mi	2/1.0	1,128 (+12%)	1mo	$139,900	$124	55
608 N Broadway St	0.55mi	2/1.0	1,093 (+8%)	12mo	$92,900	$85	50
706 N Broadway St	0.54mi	2/1.0	1,087 (+8%)	24mo	$139,000	$128	42
401 N Pou Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0	936 (-7%)	23mo	$115,000	$123	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.09% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $28,984
• Equity at exit: $35,586

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.87×
• Total profit: $75,294
• Equity at exit: $58,484

Cash invested: $19,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76821

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $967 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$364
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $639

Max offer price $69,500

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $299	-5% $279	+0% $259	+5% $240	+10% $220
Rent	-10% $183	-5% $221	+0% $259	+5% $297	+10% $336
Rate	-1.0pp $294	-0.5pp $277	base $259	+0.5pp $241	+1.0pp $223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,375
• Closing costs: $2,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2024-11-18
   status Active
3. 2024-09-30
   price $69,500
4. 2024-07-16
   price $79,500
5. 2024-05-22
   listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,335 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,335 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,893
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$928
• − Management: −$928
• − Depreciation: −$2,022
• Taxable income: $2,149
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$516
• After-tax cash flow: $2,594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ballinger ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809300
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,665
• Composite: 30.8/100
• National rank: #6144
• State rank: #496 of 826 in TX

Livability — Ballinger

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #11849

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ballinger, TX
• City population: 4,572
• Population (ZIP): 4,572

Population outlook (Runnels County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,754 people
• By 2030: 10,843 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 10,946 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 10,981 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 11,103 · +3.2%
• By 2100: 10,051 · -6.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 20% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Runnels

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.1) · D 11.1% · R 88.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.1pp toward R · 2008: -62.0pp · 2024: -77.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.1 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+74.1 2012: R+70.6 2008: R+62.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.09%
• Current HPI: 168.3222
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-08 Pending — SAAR TX
• 2024-11-18 Relisted — SAAR TX
• 2024-09-30 Price Changed $69,500 SAAR TX
• 2024-07-16 Price Changed $79,500 SAAR TX
• 2024-05-22 Listed $85,000 SAAR TX

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,335 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.