497 Lake Murex Cir · Sanibel, FL 33957

$599,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 158 Days on market

Built 1981 0.56 ac lot Est $1038k · 42% under $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Renovation Opportunity in Desirable Lake Murex! This 4-bedroom, 3-bath residence is perfectly situated in a quiet, well-established Sanibel community known for its natural beauty and convenient island lifestyle. The home offers a spacious floor plan ready to be updated and customized to your personal style. Enjoy easy access to beaches, scenic bike paths, shopping, and dining while creating your ideal island retreat. A rare opportunity to renovate and personalize a home in one of Sanibel’s most popular neighborhoods.

Key facts

• Spacious floor plan
• Scenic bike paths
• Shopping

Tags

• RENOVATION OPPORTUNITY
• DESIRABLE LAKE MUREX
• SPACIOUS FLOOR PLAN
• EASY ACCESS TO BEACHES
• SCENIC BIKE PATHS
• SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (annual fee $100); Non-gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Covered for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Cable available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Entry level: 1; Faces south; Resale property
• Construction: Wood siding with wood frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Rectangular lot; Waterfront on a lake; North exposure; Municipal irrigation; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Single hung windows; Unfurnished; Family/Dining room; Living/Dining room; Split bedroom plan; Den, Family Room, and Great Room; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $599k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $663 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $599k).
• Recommended offer: $527k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.8% in Sanibel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#541 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 526 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($527k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $527,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.80%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,037,900
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3025 Turtle Gait Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,167 (+1%)	9mo	$1,050,000	$485	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-54,528
• Equity at exit: $89,313

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $8,129
• Equity at exit: $51,791

Cash invested: $167,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33957

• Home prices YoY: -15.7%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax from tax record: −$647 /mo · $7,759/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,365
• Net cashflow: $663

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,661

Max offer price $599,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,750
• Closing costs: $17,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
548 Boulder Dr Sanibel, FL	3.0	3.0	1969	$6,500	$3.30	23d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $599,000 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $599,000 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $599,000 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $599,000 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $599,000 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $599,000 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $599,000 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $599,000 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $599,000 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $599,000 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-04-06
    price $599,000
12. 2026-03-09
    price $649,000
13. 2026-02-16
    status Active
14. 2026-02-15
    status Pending
15. 2026-01-09
    listed $699,000 Active
16. 2025-12-22
    historical
17. 2025-11-01
    price $699,000
18. 2025-09-08
    listed $750,000 Active
19. 2025-03-31
    historical
20. 2024-12-30
    price $899,000
21. 2024-11-26
    price $979,000
22. 2024-10-01
    listed $1,050,000 Active
23. 2022-12-20
    soldstatus $715,000
24. 2022-12-12
    soldstatus $715,000 Closed
25. 2022-11-23
    status Pending
26. 2022-11-15
    listed $727,000 Active
27. 2015-09-18
    price $700,000
28. 2015-09-18
    soldstatus $700,000 Sold
29. 2015-09-15
    price $715,000
30. 2015-04-02
    status Pending
31. 2015-02-10
    status Pending With Contingencies
32. 2015-01-07
    listed $715,000 Active
33. 2003-07-01
    soldstatus $494,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,759 · $647/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,759 · $647/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $78,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,553
• − Property taxes: −$7,759
• − Insurance: −$8,114
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,240
• − Management: −$6,240
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$17,425
• Taxable loss: −$1,427
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$342
• After-tax cash flow: $8,300/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sanibel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #541
• US rank: #10166

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sanibel, FL
• City population: 6,402
• Population (ZIP): 6,402

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.08%
• Current HPI: 501.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+21.3% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $599,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $649,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-16 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2026-02-15 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $699,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-12-22 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $699,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-09-08 Listed $750,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-03-31 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2024-12-30 Price Changed $899,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-11-26 Price Changed $979,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-10-01 Listed $1,050,000 FORTMLS
• 2022-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $715,000 Public Records
• 2022-12-12 Sold (MLS) $715,000 FORTMLS
• 2022-11-23 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2022-11-15 Listed $727,000 FORTMLS
• 2015-09-18 Price Changed $700,000 FORTMLS
• 2015-09-18 Sold (MLS) $700,000 FORTMLS
• 2015-09-15 Price Changed $715,000 FORTMLS
• 2015-04-02 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2015-02-10 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2015-01-07 Listed $715,000 FORTMLS
• 2003-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $494,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,759 · -47.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.