5315 Greenhurst Rd · Harris Hill, NY 14221

$339,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,530 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1959 0.55 ac lot $222/sqft · 21% below area Est $430k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 5315 Greenhurst Rd in the sought after Town of Clarence. Located close to all amenities this home has been meticulously maintained by long time owner. Many updated have been completed included a total remodel of the main bath (2022) Roof (full tear off) Gutters, down spouts (2022) sump pump with bubbler (2022) & much more! Lots of space to entertain including the country kitchen with Newer Stainless appliances, dining room & cozy living room with a wood burning fireplace (NRTC) This incredible property sits on a spacious lot with a stamped concrete patio & fire pit, perfect for Buffalo’s warm Summer Nights. Lots of storage in the dry, full basement & the 2 sheds. This home is truly a must see! Make your appointment & Make this your Home Sweet Home!

Key facts

• Tiled walk-in shower
• Ample cabinetry
• Expansive backyard

Tags

• HALF AN ACRE
• LIGHT AND BRIGHT FAMILY ROOM
• WHITEWASHED BRICK FIREPLACE
• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• TILED WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with electricity and garage door opener; Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Rectangular residential lot (approx. 0.55 acres, 100 x 240); City street frontage
• Construction: Brick construction; Copper plumbing; Built as existing structure
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Patio; Gazebo; Shed(s); Outdoor storage; Pet fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in range; Built-in oven; Electric cooktop; Microwave; Dishwasher; Solid surface counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Bedroom 1 (First level) — 9 x 13; Bedroom 2 (First level) — 13 x 11; Bedroom 3 (First level) — 13 x 13
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Tile; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; Two bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Sliding doors / Sliding glass door(s); Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Solid surface counters; Natural woodwork; Bedroom on main level; Main level primary
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-296 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.7% in Harris Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#345 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Williamsville Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #114 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $263,555 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.74%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $429,732
• List price: $339,900
• Delta: -20.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
455 Teakwood	0.58mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,572 (+3%)	0mo	$450,000	$286	64
5135 Glenwood Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-1%)	2mo	$470,000	$312	62
308 Patrice Ter	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,697 (+11%)	3mo	$397,000	$234	57
48 Palmdale Dr	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,543 (+1%)	11mo	$295,000	$191	56
28 Lord Byron Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,726 (+13%)	2mo	$600,028	$348	54
8330 Greiner Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,643 (+7%)	10mo	$342,500	$208	51
158 Bradfield Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,569 (+2%)	6mo	$390,000	$249	50
489 Sagewood Ter	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,594 (+4%)	12mo	$400,000	$251	46
288 Shetland Dr	0.72mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,620 (+6%)	9mo	$348,000	$215	44
129 Patrice	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,671 (+9%)	9mo	$378,000	$226	44
320 Shetland Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,726 (+13%)	5mo	$322,000	$187	40
434 Sprucewood	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,728 (+13%)	1mo	$410,000	$237	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-68,464
• Equity at exit: $50,680

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-60,448
• Equity at exit: $29,388

Cash invested: $95,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14221

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,636 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax from tax record: −$454 /mo · $5,453/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $-296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,011

Max offer price $287,532

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-104	-5% $-200	+0% $-296	+5% $-393	+10% $-489
Rent	-10% $-505	-5% $-401	+0% $-296	+5% $-192	+10% $-88
Rate	-1.0pp $-125	-0.5pp $-210	base $-296	+0.5pp $-385	+1.0pp $-474

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,975
• Closing costs: $10,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10 Arielle Ct Williamsville, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1063	$2,738	$2.57	3d	10	0.50mi
306 Sagewood Ter Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1907	$3,000	$1.57	5d	1	0.79mi
160 Glendon Pl Williamsville, NY	2.0	2.5	1470	$2,310	$1.57	4d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 2072-char remark
2. 2026-04-27
   listed $339,900 Active 2072-char remark
3. 2023-05-25
   soldstatus $319,918
4. 2023-05-24
   soldstatus $319,918 Closed Sale or Rented 806-char remark

   Show marketing remark (806 chars)

   Welcome to 5315 Greenhurst Rd in the sought after Town of Clarence. Located close to all amenities this home has been meticulously maintained by long time owner. Many updated have been completed included a total remodel of the main bath (2022) Roof (full tear off) Gutters, down spouts (2022) sump pump with bubbler (2022) & much more! Lots of space to entertain including the country kitchen with Newer Stainless appliances, dining room & cozy living room with a wood burning fireplace (NRTC) This incredible property sits on a spacious lot with a stamped concrete patio & fire pit, perfect for Buffalo’s warm Summer Nights. Lots of storage in the dry, full basement & the 2 sheds. This home is truly a must see! Make your appointment & Make this your Home Sweet Home!

5. 2023-04-11
   status Pending Sale 806-char remark

   Show marketing remark (806 chars)

   Welcome to 5315 Greenhurst Rd in the sought after Town of Clarence. Located close to all amenities this home has been meticulously maintained by long time owner. Many updated have been completed included a total remodel of the main bath (2022) Roof (full tear off) Gutters, down spouts (2022) sump pump with bubbler (2022) & much more! Lots of space to entertain including the country kitchen with Newer Stainless appliances, dining room & cozy living room with a wood burning fireplace (NRTC) This incredible property sits on a spacious lot with a stamped concrete patio & fire pit, perfect for Buffalo’s warm Summer Nights. Lots of storage in the dry, full basement & the 2 sheds. This home is truly a must see! Make your appointment & Make this your Home Sweet Home!

6. 2023-04-05
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 806-char remark

   Show marketing remark (806 chars)

   Welcome to 5315 Greenhurst Rd in the sought after Town of Clarence. Located close to all amenities this home has been meticulously maintained by long time owner. Many updated have been completed included a total remodel of the main bath (2022) Roof (full tear off) Gutters, down spouts (2022) sump pump with bubbler (2022) & much more! Lots of space to entertain including the country kitchen with Newer Stainless appliances, dining room & cozy living room with a wood burning fireplace (NRTC) This incredible property sits on a spacious lot with a stamped concrete patio & fire pit, perfect for Buffalo’s warm Summer Nights. Lots of storage in the dry, full basement & the 2 sheds. This home is truly a must see! Make your appointment & Make this your Home Sweet Home!

7. 2023-04-03
   price $299,900 806-char remark

   Show marketing remark (806 chars)

   Welcome to 5315 Greenhurst Rd in the sought after Town of Clarence. Located close to all amenities this home has been meticulously maintained by long time owner. Many updated have been completed included a total remodel of the main bath (2022) Roof (full tear off) Gutters, down spouts (2022) sump pump with bubbler (2022) & much more! Lots of space to entertain including the country kitchen with Newer Stainless appliances, dining room & cozy living room with a wood burning fireplace (NRTC) This incredible property sits on a spacious lot with a stamped concrete patio & fire pit, perfect for Buffalo’s warm Summer Nights. Lots of storage in the dry, full basement & the 2 sheds. This home is truly a must see! Make your appointment & Make this your Home Sweet Home!

8. 2023-03-20
   listed $314,900 Active 806-char remark

   Show marketing remark (806 chars)

   Welcome to 5315 Greenhurst Rd in the sought after Town of Clarence. Located close to all amenities this home has been meticulously maintained by long time owner. Many updated have been completed included a total remodel of the main bath (2022) Roof (full tear off) Gutters, down spouts (2022) sump pump with bubbler (2022) & much more! Lots of space to entertain including the country kitchen with Newer Stainless appliances, dining room & cozy living room with a wood burning fireplace (NRTC) This incredible property sits on a spacious lot with a stamped concrete patio & fire pit, perfect for Buffalo’s warm Summer Nights. Lots of storage in the dry, full basement & the 2 sheds. This home is truly a must see! Make your appointment & Make this your Home Sweet Home!

9. 2002-09-30
   soldstatus $110,000
10. 1997-12-12
    soldstatus $107,250

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,453 · $454/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,599 · $467/mo
• Expected delta: +$146/yr (+$12/mo · 2.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,627
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,040
• − Property taxes: −$5,453
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,530
• − Management: −$2,530
• − Depreciation: −$9,888
• Taxable loss: −$9,514
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,283
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,274/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631470
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,907
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #678
• State rank: #114 of 590 in NY

Livability — Harris Hill

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #345
• US rank: #5816

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,255
• Household income: $101,615
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1956.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 8% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -301.37%
• Current HPI: 322.6947
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+216.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $339,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $319,918 Public Records
• 2023-05-24 Sold (MLS) $319,918 WNYREIS
• 2023-04-11 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-04-05 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-04-03 Price Changed $299,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-03-20 Listed $314,900 WNYREIS
• 2002-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 1997-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $107,250 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,453 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.