18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 16 Lot 16 · Valley Center, CA 92082

$189,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1975 7,426 sqft lot $123/sqft · 19% below area Est $232k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1975 MANUFACTURED HOME THAT SITS RIGHT ON THE LAKE AND IS BEAUTIFUL AND MOVE-IN READY!! - Offered for only $189,000!! 2 Bedrooms, 2 Baths and an unbelievable view of the lake from the living room. You can sit and relax plus feel the stress fade away as you watch the ducks and the fountain. You also have a view of the golf course. The upgrades will dazzle you as you walk throughout the home. This home is definitely a must see for your retirement dream home; located in beautiful Skyline Ranch Country Club, a premier Senior Park that sits in the foothills of Valley Center. FREE golf to all residents, full clubhouse use, gym, gated community and much more. Skyline Ranch is a land leased park; the monthly space rent here is 1750.00. Please come and see this wonderful home located in a great Senior Park with many amenities.

Key facts

• 7,426 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $178k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 2.6% in Valley Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,017 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Valley Center-Pauma Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #367 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($127k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $189k implies a 656% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,660 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.47%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,450
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -18.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 150	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,536 (0%)	8mo	$267,500	$174	88
18218 Paradise Mountaind Rd #174	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (-0%)	10mo	$149,000	$97	86
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 79	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,530 (-0%)	10mo	$115,000	$75	85
18218 Paradise Mtn Spc 47	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+2%)	12mo	$100,000	$64	82
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 105	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	12mo	$89,500	$62	79
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 145	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	14mo	$165,000	$115	77
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 11	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+2%)	21mo	$180,000	$115	75
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #144	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,680 (+9%)	12mo	$170,000	$101	74
18218 S PARADISE MOUNTAIN RD SPC 109	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	12mo	$140,000	$97	73
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 10	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,306 (-15%)	9mo	$255,000	$195	68
18218 Paradise Mtn Rd #59	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,680 (+9%)	3mo	$249,900	$149	65
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #7	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,355 (-12%)	21mo	$92,000	$68	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $66,124
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.44×
• Total profit: $181,958
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92082

• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,324 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $429/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$698
• Net cashflow: $1,520

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,627	-5% $1,574	+0% $1,520	+5% $1,467	+10% $1,413
Rent	-10% $1,258	-5% $1,389	+0% $1,520	+5% $1,652	+10% $1,783
Rate	-1.0pp $1,615	-0.5pp $1,568	base $1,520	+0.5pp $1,471	+1.0pp $1,421

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-04-01
    listed $189,000 Active 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    1975 MANUFACTURED HOME THAT SITS RIGHT ON THE LAKE AND IS BEAUTIFUL AND MOVE-IN READY!! - Offered for only $189,000!! 2 Bedrooms, 2 Baths and an unbelievable view of the lake from the living room. You can sit and relax plus feel the stress fade away as you watch the ducks and the fountain. You also have a view of the golf course. The upgrades will dazzle you as you walk throughout the home. This home is definitely a must see for your retirement dream home; located in beautiful Skyline Ranch Country Club, a premier Senior Park that sits in the foothills of Valley Center. FREE golf to all residents, full clubhouse use, gym, gated community and much more. Skyline Ranch is a land leased park; the monthly space rent here is 1750.00. Please come and see this wonderful home located in a great Senior Park with many amenities.

17. 2015-04-01
    soldstatus $25,000 Sold 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! NEEDS WORK, MAKE OFFER!! Awesome location off the pond at Skyline Ranch where you golf for free! 2br / 2ba doublewide home just a few feet from the water and beautiful views of the pond and golf course. Vaulted ceilings, lots of windows, plantation shutters, tile, pergo and carpeting. Separate laundry room with energy saving washer and dryer. Huge side yard, smaller back yard. Relaxing view deck. Rent is $781 mo.

18. 2015-03-05
    status Pending 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! NEEDS WORK, MAKE OFFER!! Awesome location off the pond at Skyline Ranch where you golf for free! 2br / 2ba doublewide home just a few feet from the water and beautiful views of the pond and golf course. Vaulted ceilings, lots of windows, plantation shutters, tile, pergo and carpeting. Separate laundry room with energy saving washer and dryer. Huge side yard, smaller back yard. Relaxing view deck. Rent is $781 mo.

19. 2015-02-24
    price $69,000 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! NEEDS WORK, MAKE OFFER!! Awesome location off the pond at Skyline Ranch where you golf for free! 2br / 2ba doublewide home just a few feet from the water and beautiful views of the pond and golf course. Vaulted ceilings, lots of windows, plantation shutters, tile, pergo and carpeting. Separate laundry room with energy saving washer and dryer. Huge side yard, smaller back yard. Relaxing view deck. Rent is $781 mo.

20. 2014-10-31
    listed $89,000 Active 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! NEEDS WORK, MAKE OFFER!! Awesome location off the pond at Skyline Ranch where you golf for free! 2br / 2ba doublewide home just a few feet from the water and beautiful views of the pond and golf course. Vaulted ceilings, lots of windows, plantation shutters, tile, pergo and carpeting. Separate laundry room with energy saving washer and dryer. Huge side yard, smaller back yard. Relaxing view deck. Rent is $781 mo.

21. 2014-10-31
    historical

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! NEEDS WORK, MAKE OFFER!! Awesome location off the pond at Skyline Ranch where you golf for free! 2br / 2ba doublewide home just a few feet from the water and beautiful views of the pond and golf course. Vaulted ceilings, lots of windows, plantation shutters, tile, pergo and carpeting. Separate laundry room with energy saving washer and dryer. Huge side yard, smaller back yard. Relaxing view deck. Rent is $781 mo.

22. 2014-09-19
    price $119,000
23. 2014-08-22
    price $129,900
24. 2014-07-27
    price $139,900
25. 2014-05-05
    listed $159,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $429 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,436 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,007/yr (+$84/mo · 234.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 1 d/yr ≥97°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$429
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,191
• − Management: −$3,191
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $16,045
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,851
• After-tax cash flow: $14,392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Center-Pauma Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600069
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $74,438
• Composite: 24.32/100
• National rank: #7705
• State rank: #367 of 517 in CA

Livability — Valley Center

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1017
• US rank: #24938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 21,727
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $126,544
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 241.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 23% Native American 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -293.00%
• Current HPI: 294.6017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+18.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $189,000 CRMLS
• 2015-04-01 Sold (MLS) $25,000 SDMLS
• 2015-03-05 Pending — SDMLS
• 2015-02-24 Price Changed $69,000 SDMLS
• 2014-10-31 Listed $89,000 SDMLS
• 2014-10-31 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2014-09-19 Price Changed $119,000 SDMLS
• 2014-08-22 Price Changed $129,900 SDMLS
• 2014-07-27 Price Changed $139,900 SDMLS
• 2014-05-05 Listed $159,900 SDMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2013): $429 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.