921 Winchester Rd · Waynesboro, VA 22980

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · Other public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1920 4,791 sqft lot $69/sqft · 71% below area ↓ 40% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

House in need of a makeover bring your imagination and talent to make it so. Owner is also selling 565 Bath Ave, 1615 E Main St and 1619 E Main Street.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 74 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $585 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 3.3% in Waynesboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#155 in VA, #4,902 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, commute F.
• Waynesboro City Public School District (urban): math 35% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #108 of 131 in VA (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wenonah Elementary (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #933 of 1,108 statewide, top 86%, 223 students, 89% FRL); Kate Collins Middle (math 28% / reading 57%, grade D-, #291 of 342 statewide, top 86%, 644 students, 86% FRL); Waynesboro High (math 47% / reading 72%, grade C+, #247 of 319 statewide, top 80%, 905 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 50% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.9%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 138 units permitted in Waynesboro city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waynesboro County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $70,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.41%
• DSCR: 2.49
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $256,486
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -70.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $32,123
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.14×
• Total profit: $107,976
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22980

• Rents YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 304
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,335 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $541/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $585

Break-even live

Break-even rent $595

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $627	-5% $606	+0% $585	+5% $563	+10% $542
Rent	-10% $479	-5% $532	+0% $585	+5% $637	+10% $690
Rate	-1.0pp $622	-0.5pp $604	base $585	+0.5pp $565	+1.0pp $545

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
280 N Commerce Ave Waynesboro, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	775	$975	$1.26	45d	1	0.14mi
600 E Main St Unit 6-2 Waynesboro, VA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,299	$1.62	45d	1	0.31mi
605 Hamlet Ave Unit I Waynesboro, VA	2.0	1.5	1050	$1,200	$1.14	45d	1	0.48mi
1048 Bridge Ave Waynesboro, VA	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	45d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $75,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $75,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    price $75,000 151-char remark

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    House in need of a makeover bring your imagination and talent to make it so. Owner is also selling 565 Bath Ave, 1615 E Main St and 1619 E Main Street.

18. 2026-04-06
    listed $125,000 Active 151-char remark

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    House in need of a makeover bring your imagination and talent to make it so. Owner is also selling 565 Bath Ave, 1615 E Main St and 1619 E Main Street.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $541 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $615 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: +$74/yr (+$6/mo · 13.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,014
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$541
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,281
• − Management: −$1,281
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $6,153
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,477
• After-tax cash flow: $5,539/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waynesboro City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103930
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,171
• Composite: 38.73/100
• National rank: #4131
• State rank: #108 of 131 in VA

Livability — Waynesboro

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4902

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waynesboro, VA
• County: Waynesboro City · 32,965 people
• City population: 32,965
• Metro: Staunton, VA
• Population (ZIP): 32,965
• Household income: $63,943
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 858.0

Population outlook (Waynesboro County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,329 people
• By 2030: 22,567 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 22,947 · +2.8%
• By 2050: 23,061 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 22,739 · +1.8%
• By 2100: 21,058 · -5.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waynesboro

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.7) · D 46.5% · R 52.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: -10.3pp · 2024: -5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.7 2020: R+5.1 2016: R+11.4 2012: R+10.9 2008: R+10.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.72%
• Current HPI: 183.3216
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.88%
• Metro: Staunton, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-40.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $75,000 GAAR
• 2026-04-06 Listed $125,000 GAAR

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $541 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.