423 N Carolina St · Houston, TX 77029

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 2020 5,000 sqft lot $124/sqft · 19% below area Est $197k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-family home offers LVP flooring throughout the main living areas and a spacious open-concept layout connecting the living room and kitchen. The kitchen features granite countertops and dark cabinetry. Bedrooms are carpeted and include walk-in closets with built-in shelving. The home sits on a fenced lot with a car garage, concrete driveway, and covered entry porch. Located in an established neighborhood with newer construction nearby. Property is being sold as-is — bring your contractor and vision to complete the finish-out.

Key facts

• Dark cabinetry
• Walk-in closets
• Lvp flooring

Tags

• LVP FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• DARK CABINETRY
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• BUILT-IN SHELVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($684/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Galena Park ISD (suburban): math 32% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #578 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,230 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.54%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $197,020
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -19.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2513 13th St	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,258 (-2%)	1mo	$139,999	$111	88
213 Armstrong St	0.34mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,281 (+0%)	4mo	$110,000	$86	74
2515 7th St	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,171 (-8%)	2mo	$169,900	$145	69
2204 Benson Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,242 (-3%)	1mo	$199,999	$161	66
2222 8th St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,246 (-3%)	7mo	$149,950	$120	66
2503 13th St	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,420 (+11%)	4mo	$221,000	$156	65
2224 11th St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-12%)	1mo	$179,900	$161	60
328 Gans St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+14%)	4mo	$275,000	$189	59
2219 15th St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,213 (-5%)	7mo	$94,000	$77	58
2012 10th St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,395 (+9%)	6mo	$230,000	$165	47
2220 7th St	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,114 (-13%)	7mo	$179,990	$162	46
2113 10th St	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,103 (-14%)	7mo	$135,000	$122	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $90,397
• Equity at exit: $143,240

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.92×
• Total profit: $263,692
• Equity at exit: $308,902

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77029

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,763 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$436 /mo · $5,226/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,691

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
253 N Carolina St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1560	$1,600	$1.03	8d	1	0.26mi
423 Armstrong St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,515	$1.39	2d	1	0.27mi
403 Armstrong St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	909	$1,435	$1.58	5d	1	0.28mi
205 Bolden St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,500	$2.08	44d	1	0.37mi
311 Massachusetts St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,700	$1.44	13d	1	0.48mi
2216 3rd St Galena Park, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,400	$0.93	44d	1	0.62mi
9821 Turnbow St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,720	$1.51	44d	1	0.68mi
9710 Tuffly St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,795	$1.41	24d	1	0.99mi
9709 Cargill St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$2,300	$1.94	44d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-03-31
   listed $159,000 Active 548-char remark

   Show marketing remark (548 chars)

   This single-family home offers LVP flooring throughout the main living areas and a spacious open-concept layout connecting the living room and kitchen. The kitchen features granite countertops and dark cabinetry. Bedrooms are carpeted and include walk-in closets with built-in shelving. The home sits on a fenced lot with a car garage, concrete driveway, and covered entry porch. Located in an established neighborhood with newer construction nearby. Property is being sold as-is — bring your contractor and vision to complete the finish-out.

2. 2020-09-03
   soldstatus Sold 760-char remark

   Show marketing remark (760 chars)

   THIS BEAUTIFUL CENSEO HOME IS UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND IS AN ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME, ABSOLUTELY CHARMING, WITH OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN OVERLOOKING THE LARGE LIVING-DINING COMBO, WHICH MAKES IT PERFECT FOR ENTERTAINING. BEAUTIFUL BLACK WHIRLPOOL APPLIANCE PACKAGE, MOEN PLUMBING FIXTURES, FULLY SHEETROCKED GARAGE, ROUNDED SHEETROCK CORNERS, ENGINEERED AND INSPECTED BY THIRD PARTY ENGINEER, 14.5 SEER HVAC SYSTEM, DOUBLE PANE INSULATED LOW-E WINDOWS, CONTINUOUS SOFFIT VENTS AND AIR HAWK VENTILATION SYSTEM, LP TECHSHIELD RADIANT BARRIER ROOF DECKING, SHERWIN WILLIAMS PAINT INSIDE AND OUT, JAMES HARDI SIDING, WARRANTY: 1 YR WORKMANSHIP & MATERIALS, 2 YR ALL SYSTEMS-PLUMBING, ELECTRICAL, HVAC & OTHER MECHANICAL SYSTEMS, 10 YR MAJOR STRUCTURAL COMPONENTS

3. 2020-06-09
   status Pending 760-char remark

   Show marketing remark (760 chars)

   THIS BEAUTIFUL CENSEO HOME IS UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND IS AN ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME, ABSOLUTELY CHARMING, WITH OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN OVERLOOKING THE LARGE LIVING-DINING COMBO, WHICH MAKES IT PERFECT FOR ENTERTAINING. BEAUTIFUL BLACK WHIRLPOOL APPLIANCE PACKAGE, MOEN PLUMBING FIXTURES, FULLY SHEETROCKED GARAGE, ROUNDED SHEETROCK CORNERS, ENGINEERED AND INSPECTED BY THIRD PARTY ENGINEER, 14.5 SEER HVAC SYSTEM, DOUBLE PANE INSULATED LOW-E WINDOWS, CONTINUOUS SOFFIT VENTS AND AIR HAWK VENTILATION SYSTEM, LP TECHSHIELD RADIANT BARRIER ROOF DECKING, SHERWIN WILLIAMS PAINT INSIDE AND OUT, JAMES HARDI SIDING, WARRANTY: 1 YR WORKMANSHIP & MATERIALS, 2 YR ALL SYSTEMS-PLUMBING, ELECTRICAL, HVAC & OTHER MECHANICAL SYSTEMS, 10 YR MAJOR STRUCTURAL COMPONENTS

4. 2020-06-03
   listed $154,999 Active 760-char remark

   Show marketing remark (760 chars)

   THIS BEAUTIFUL CENSEO HOME IS UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND IS AN ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME, ABSOLUTELY CHARMING, WITH OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN OVERLOOKING THE LARGE LIVING-DINING COMBO, WHICH MAKES IT PERFECT FOR ENTERTAINING. BEAUTIFUL BLACK WHIRLPOOL APPLIANCE PACKAGE, MOEN PLUMBING FIXTURES, FULLY SHEETROCKED GARAGE, ROUNDED SHEETROCK CORNERS, ENGINEERED AND INSPECTED BY THIRD PARTY ENGINEER, 14.5 SEER HVAC SYSTEM, DOUBLE PANE INSULATED LOW-E WINDOWS, CONTINUOUS SOFFIT VENTS AND AIR HAWK VENTILATION SYSTEM, LP TECHSHIELD RADIANT BARRIER ROOF DECKING, SHERWIN WILLIAMS PAINT INSIDE AND OUT, JAMES HARDI SIDING, WARRANTY: 1 YR WORKMANSHIP & MATERIALS, 2 YR ALL SYSTEMS-PLUMBING, ELECTRICAL, HVAC & OTHER MECHANICAL SYSTEMS, 10 YR MAJOR STRUCTURAL COMPONENTS

5. 2020-02-05
   soldstatus
6. 2020-01-31
   soldstatus Sold
7. 2020-01-02
   status Pending
8. 2019-10-31
   price $23,000
9. 2019-09-26
   listed $25,000 Active
10. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,226 · $436/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,226 · $436/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$5,226
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,692
• − Management: −$1,692
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$1,785
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$428
• After-tax cash flow: $1,112/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galena Park ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820250
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $43,158
• Composite: 27.62/100
• National rank: #6927
• State rank: #578 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,154
• Household income: $48,279
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 457.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 32% Black 22% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 66%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 61%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.53%
• Current HPI: 276.1811
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+536.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2020-09-03 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-06-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-06-03 Listed $154,999 HARMLS
• 2020-02-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-01-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-01-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-10-31 Price Changed $23,000 HARMLS
• 2019-09-26 Listed $25,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+46.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,226 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.