414 Mansion Ave · Ogdensburg, NY 13669

$139,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1900 10,400 sqft lot Est $111k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Space, charm and endless potential all in one! Welcome to this large, beautifully maintained 3-bedroom home full of character and timeless charm! From the moment you step inside, you'll appreciate the spacious foyer, inviting double living room, and generously sized kitchen. Upstairs features 3 comfortable bedrooms and spacious bathroom, while the walk-up attic offers incredible bonus space for storage-or the opportunity to create an additional living area. Situated on a large lot with ample parking, there is a desirable 3 stall garage. This home showcases stunning original hardwood floors (including under the downstairs carpeting), gorgeous well-kept woodwork throughout, and true pride of

Key facts

• Double living room
• Large lot
• Spacious foyer

Tags

• SPACIOUS FOYER
• DOUBLE LIVING ROOM
• GENEROUSLY SIZED KITCHEN
• WALK-UP ATTIC
• BONUS SPACE
• LARGE LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 80 x 130

Exterior

• Parking: Oversized paved detached parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Residential property; 3 stories
• Construction: Wood siding; Metal and shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Gas cooktop

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-873/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Ogdensburg City School District (town): math 34% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #531 of 590 in NY (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $119,257 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.24%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $111,232
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
625 Mansion Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,366 (-3%)	3mo	$80,000	$59	80
513 Ogden Ave	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,425 (+1%)	12mo	$139,900	$98	79
418 St. Lawrence Ave	0.14mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,450 (+3%)	9mo	$124,000	$86	76
1011 New York Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,384 (-2%)	6mo	$116,000	$84	71
428 Pine St	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,497 (+6%)	7mo	$159,900	$107	66
918 Congress St	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,414 (+0%)	12mo	$83,500	$59	65
403 Rensselaer Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+13%)	3mo	$130,000	$81	64
909 Pickering St	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,447 (+3%)	13mo	$115,000	$79	58
2 Grove St	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,226 (-13%)	4mo	$57,500	$47	58
906 Franklin St	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,328 (-6%)	4mo	$47,000	$35	53
1114 Pickering St	0.64mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,550 (+10%)	6mo	$17,000	$11	43
924 Caroline St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,578 (+12%)	6mo	$86,500	$55	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,523
• Equity at exit: $47,939

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $19,586
• Equity at exit: $64,085

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13669

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,193 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,736/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $-73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,285

Max offer price $126,155

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6	-5% $-33	+0% $-73	+5% $-112	+10% $-151
Rent	-10% $-167	-5% $-120	+0% $-73	+5% $-26	+10% $21
Rate	-1.0pp $-3	-0.5pp $-37	base $-73	+0.5pp $-109	+1.0pp $-145

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-15
   listed $139,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,736 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,736 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,311
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,736
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,145
• − Management: −$1,145
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$3,240
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$778
• After-tax cash flow: $-95/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ogdensburg City School District
• NCES district ID: 3621660
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,253
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5497
• State rank: #531 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ogdensburg

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #11365

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ogdensburg, NY
• Population (ZIP): 15,615

Population outlook (St. Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,027 people
• By 2030: 107,455 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 100,492 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 94,254 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 80,175 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 63,140 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Polish 6% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · German/W. Germanic 9% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lawrence

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 41.0% · R 59.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+11.7 2016: R+10.8 2012: D+16.6 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.07%
• Current HPI: 264.0261
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $139,000 SLCMLS

Property tax history

+26.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,736 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.