21 Railroad Ave · Phillipsburg, NJ 08865-3211

$159,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 191 Days on market

Built 1900 2,613 sqft lot Est $248k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 3-bedroom end-of-row home in Phillipsburg with bonus finished attic for additional living space or storage. 1 full bath. Home is livable and has a long-term tenant currently under market rent, but tenant is aware and prepared for a rent increase. Property needs TLC and cosmetic updates, but all mechanicals are in good working order. Features include a fenced backyard, 2-car off-street parking via rear alley, a welcoming front porch, and location on a quiet one-way street. Not a distress sale, but property is being sold as-is. Great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value with some updates.

Key facts

• Finished attic
• Front porch
• Quiet one-way street

Tags

• FINISHED ATTIC
• FENCED BACKYARD
• OFF-STREET PARKING
• FRONT PORCH
• QUIET ONE-WAY STREET

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $159,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$248,024) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $487 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 4.9% in Phillipsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#135 in NJ, #3,552 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: commute F.
• Phillipsburg School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #381 of 472 in NJ (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Phillipsburg Elementary School (math 10% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,049 of 1,303 statewide, top 81%, 595 students, 75% FRL); Phillipsburg Middle School (math 10% / reading 35%, grade F, #379 of 431 statewide, top 89%, 664 students, 70% FRL); Phillipsburg High School (math 27% / reading 51%, grade F, #197 of 399 statewide, top 51%, 1,794 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 630 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (315 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $160k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.04%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $248,024
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
280 Bates St	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,168 (-3%)	8mo	$292,000	$250	70
350 Firth St	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,162 (-4%)	24mo	$150,000	$129	65
76 Glen Ave	0.31mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,262 (+5%)	12mo	$259,900	$206	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $50,320
• Equity at exit: $71,898

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.03×
• Total profit: $135,831
• Equity at exit: $110,803

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08865-3211

• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,096 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$264 /mo · $3,170/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $487

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,480

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $577	-5% $532	+0% $487	+5% $441	+10% $396
Rent	-10% $321	-5% $404	+0% $487	+5% $569	+10% $652
Rate	-1.0pp $567	-0.5pp $527	base $487	+0.5pp $445	+1.0pp $403

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
270 Bates St Phillipsburg, NJ	2.0	1.0	1368	$2,100	$1.54	25d	1	0.34mi
1 Sitgreaves St Unit 3B Phillipsburg, NJ	2.0	1.0	900	$1,650	$1.83	25d	1	0.48mi
1 Sitgreaves St Unit 3B Phillipsburg, NJ	2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	4d	1	0.48mi
210 Washington St Phillipsburg, NJ	4.0	1.5	1000	$2,300	$2.30	4d	1	0.48mi
461 Heckman St Phillipsburg, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	690	$2,095	$3.03	0d	6	0.54mi
152 S Main St Phillipsburg, NJ	2.0	1.0	900	$1,650	$1.83	25d	1	0.65mi
355 Thomas St Phillipsburg, NJ	3.0	1.5	1400	$2,250	$1.61	12d	1	0.69mi
689 Sayre Ave Phillipsburg, NJ	4.0	1.5	1376	$2,200	$1.60	4d	1	0.70mi
75 S Main St Phillipsburg, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,239	$2.64	4d	4	0.71mi
43-45 S Main St Unit 3 Phillipsburg, NJ	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	25d	1	0.73mi
100 Northampton St Easton, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$3,650	$3.67	4d	6	0.92mi
49 N Delaware Dr Unit 3rd Floor Easton, PA	2.0	1.0	1500	$2,495	$1.66	20d	1	0.93mi
11 S 2nd St Unit 10 Easton, PA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,500	$1.88	45d	1	1.02mi
214 Spring Garden St Unit 2B Easton, PA	2.0	1.0	1250	$2,995	$2.40	22d	1	1.05mi
201 Cattell St Unit 5 Easton, PA	3.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	4d	1	1.06mi
215 Cattell St Unit 2nd Floor Easton, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	25d	1	1.07mi
218 Cattell St Unit B Easton, PA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	45d	1	1.09mi
226 Vista Dr Easton, PA	3.0	1.5	1358	$2,195	$1.62	4d	1	1.09mi
330 Northampton St Unit 205 Easton, PA	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,750	$1.61	25d	1	1.18mi
330 Northampton St Easton, PA	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,750	$1.61	45d	1	1.18mi
140 S 4th St Easton, PA	2.0	1.0–2.0	841	$2,460	$2.93	4d	106	1.22mi
417 McCartney St Unit 1 Easton, PA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,750	$2.33	45d	1	1.22mi
513 Spruce St Easton, PA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,600	$1.88	45d	1	1.35mi
40 S 6th St Easton, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1156	$3,000	$2.59	15d	11	1.37mi
601 Northampton St Unit 202 Easton, PA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,795	$2.39	15d	1	1.40mi
601 Northampton St Unit 402 Easton, PA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,795	$2.39	45d	1	1.40mi
700 Hamilton St Unit 2 Easton, PA	4.0	2.0	1050	$2,000	$1.90	4d	1	1.42mi
142 S Union St Easton, PA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,895	$1.46	45d	1	1.43mi
623 Walnut St Unit A2 Easton, PA	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,250	$1.50	25d	1	1.45mi
623 Walnut St Unit C2 Easton, PA	2.0	2.5	1500	$2,300	$1.53	45d	1	1.45mi
199 Cedar Park Blvd Easton, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–4.0	1410	$3,077	$2.18	0d	9	1.46mi
276 W Saint Joseph St Easton, PA	3.0	1.5	1315	$1,700	$1.29	45d	1	1.46mi
839 McCartney St Unit 2nd Floor Easton, PA	3.0	1.0	828	$1,700	$2.05	4d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-02-11
   status Under Contract
2. 2025-11-13
   price $159,900
3. 2025-09-03
   price $179,900
4. 2025-08-04
   listed $200,000 Active
5. 2022-07-06
   soldstatus $67,800
6. 2001-11-09
   soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,170 · $264/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,576 · $298/mo
• Expected delta: +$406/yr (+$34/mo · 12.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,152
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$3,170
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,012
• − Management: −$2,012
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $3,550
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$852
• After-tax cash flow: $4,986/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phillipsburg School District
• NCES district ID: 3412960
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,364
• Composite: 23.2/100
• National rank: #7943
• State rank: #381 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Phillipsburg

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #135
• US rank: #3552

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living A Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phillipsburg, NJ

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,498 people
• By 2030: 103,974 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 99,748 · -5.5%
• By 2050: 94,535 · -10.4%
• By 2075: 87,220 · -17.3%
• By 2100: 80,421 · -23.8%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+166.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Pending — GSMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $159,900 GSMLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $179,900 GSMLS
• 2025-08-04 Listed $200,000 GSMLS
• 2022-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $67,800 Public Records
• 2001-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,170 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.