323 RIDGECREST Pkwy · Oroville East, CA 95966

$44,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 454 Days on market

Built 1975 Est $51k · 13% under ↓ 41% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SENIOR PARK. NEED PARK APPROVAL AFTER ACCEPTED OFFER. NEWER ROOF, NEW GUTTERS, NEW HEAT AND AIR NEW WATER HEATER, STOVE HOOD, APPLIANCES, NEW FLOOR COVERINGS, FRESH PAINT. SELLER WOULD LIKE TIMOS TITLE - TAMARA

Key facts

• Appliances
• New gutters
• New water heater

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW GUTTERS
• NEW WATER HEATER
• STOVE HOOD
• APPLIANCES
• NEW FLOOR COVERINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease of $820 per month (includes trash, water and sewer)
• HOA & community: Senior community; Manager approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Located in THR PAKS park
• Utilities: Public/district water (connected); Public sewer (connected); Electricity available and connected; Cable available; Telephone available in street
• Home design: Single-story mobile home (24' x 52'); Mobile home remains on site
• Construction: Built year sourced from public records
• Exterior features: Community pool; Flat lot; Nearby biking, hiking, fishing and lake access

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Entry at ground level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $44k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $44k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 38.6% vs local median 3.4% in Oroville East — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,082 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Oroville Union High (town): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #300 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 372 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $308 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 454 days — a 12% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 454 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 115.23%
• DSCR: 6.13
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $51,168
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
315 Ridgecrest	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,250 (+0%)	22mo	$35,000	$28	75
112 Oak Grove Pkwy	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-8%)	0mo	$46,500	$40	70
218 Rim Cyn #218	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-8%)	12mo	$47,000	$41	70
218 Rim Canyon Pkwy	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-8%)	12mo	$47,000	$41	70
408 Tanglewood	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,101 (-12%)	4mo	$120,000	$109	66
200 Creekside	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+8%)	21mo	$90,000	$67	64
431 Summerwood	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,378 (+10%)	21mo	$126,500	$92	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.54×
• Total profit: $68,992
• Equity at exit: $6,635

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.70×
• Total profit: $158,202
• Equity at exit: $3,848

Cash invested: $12,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95966

• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,847 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$233
• Tax from tax record: −$11 /mo · $129/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $1,196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $333

Max offer price $44,500

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,222	-5% $1,209	+0% $1,196	+5% $1,184	+10% $1,171
Rent	-10% $1,051	-5% $1,123	+0% $1,196	+5% $1,269	+10% $1,342
Rate	-1.0pp $1,219	-0.5pp $1,208	base $1,196	+0.5pp $1,185	+1.0pp $1,173

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,125
• Closing costs: $1,335
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5560 Old Olive Hwy Oroville, CA	3.0	1.0	950	$1,600	$1.68	14d	1	0.57mi
5580 Old Olive Hwy Oroville, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	14d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $44,500 Active 454 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,500 Active 453 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,500 Active 452 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,500 Active 451 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,500 Active 450 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $44,500 Active 448 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,500 Active 447 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $44,500 Active 445 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,500 Active 444 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $44,500 Active 443 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $44,500 Active 442 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $44,500 Active 438 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,500 Active 437 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,500 Active 436 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,500 Active 435 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $44,500 Active 434 DOM
17. 2026-03-14
    price $44,500
18. 2025-03-22
    listed $49,500 Active
19. 2025-02-17
    historical
20. 2024-08-22
    price $49,500
21. 2023-09-21
    listed $55,000 Active
22. 2023-09-18
    historical
23. 2023-09-02
    listed $55,000 Active
24. 2023-06-30
    historical
25. 2023-03-23
    price $59,900
26. 2023-02-02
    price $62,900
27. 2022-11-12
    listed $75,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $129 · $11/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $338 · $28/mo
• Expected delta: +$209/yr (+$17/mo · 161.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,164
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,493
• − Property taxes: −$129
• − Insurance: −$222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,773
• − Management: −$1,773
• − Depreciation: −$1,295
• Taxable income: $14,479
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,475
• After-tax cash flow: $10,883/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oroville Union High
• NCES district ID: 0629130
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,085
• Composite: 28.26/100
• National rank: #6794
• State rank: #300 of 517 in CA

Livability — Oroville East

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1082
• US rank: #25347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oroville East, CA
• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,503
• Household income: $65,586
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 807.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14% Asian 6% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -284.58%
• Current HPI: 267.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-41.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $44,500 CRMLS
• 2025-03-22 Listed $49,500 CRMLS
• 2025-02-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-08-22 Price Changed $49,500 CRMLS
• 2023-09-21 Listed $55,000 CRMLS
• 2023-09-18 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-09-02 Listed $55,000 CRMLS
• 2023-06-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-03-23 Price Changed $59,900 CRMLS
• 2023-02-02 Price Changed $62,900 CRMLS
• 2022-11-12 Listed $75,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $129 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.