151 Dekalb St · Tonawanda, NY 14150

$209,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 928 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1952 6,341 sqft lot $226/sqft · 20% below area Est $263k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quaint and Cozy 2 Bedroom 2 Bath Updated Brick Ranch. Updates include both bathrooms (2018), floors (Hardwood floors also throughout under the carpet), This home offers a spacious kitchen with extensive countertop and cabinet space, Full Basement with ample storage, Double concrete Driveway, attached garage, a new concrete patio overlooking large fully fenced yard and much more. you do not want to miss this! schedule an appointment today, showings start saturday 1/7 at 10am

Key facts

• Brick front
• Large picture window
• Finished basement

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• BRICK FRONT
• LARGE PICTURE WINDOW
• WOOD CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Poured foundation; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Covered patio/porch; Patio; Porch; Shed(s)/storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (1 on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Main-level primary bedroom; Bedroom on main level; Full, finished basement with sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-159 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (13.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mullen Elementary School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 303 students, 54% FRL); Fletcher Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%); Tonawanda Middle/High School (math 49% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,023 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 1,011 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 34% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $156,632 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.25%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,500
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: -20.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
128 Bannard Ave	0.19mi	2/1.5	972 (+5%)	6mo	$168,500	$173	76
30 Bannard Ave	0.30mi	2/1.0	1,032 (+11%)	2mo	$220,000	$213	65
205 Bannard Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	999 (+8%)	8mo	$186,500	$187	65
346 Maldiner Ave	0.26mi	3/1.5 (+1)	999 (+8%)	9mo	$280,000	$280	60
236 Newell Ave	0.18mi	3/1.0 (+1)	999 (+8%)	16mo	$237,000	$237	60
53 Winkler Dr	0.41mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,060 (+14%)	2mo	$210,000	$198	51
23 Winkler Dr	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,060 (+14%)	17mo	$215,000	$203	37
29 Bonnett Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,064 (+15%)	13mo	$262,000	$246	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-38,021
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-19,006
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,566 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,499/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $-159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,768

Max offer price $181,801

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-40	-5% $-100	+0% $-159	+5% $-218	+10% $-278
Rent	-10% $-283	-5% $-221	+0% $-159	+5% $-97	+10% $-35
Rate	-1.0pp $-53	-0.5pp $-106	base $-159	+0.5pp $-213	+1.0pp $-269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1974 Newell Ave Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	675	$1,185	$1.76	5d	3	0.29mi
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	13d	1	0.42mi
285 Crestmount Ave Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,905	$2.63	3d	9	0.50mi
4-18 Concord Ct Tonawanda, NY	1.0	1.0	730	$1,395	$1.91	5d	1	0.55mi
268-360 Hinds St Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	500	$1,214	$2.43	13d	1	1.31mi
1835 Military Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1064	$2,175	$2.04	19d	1	1.33mi
330 E Niagara St Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,900	$1.95	3d	1	1.36mi
103 Raintree Is Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,800	$2.57	3d	35	1.49mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $209,900 Active 985-char remark
2. 2023-03-20
   soldstatus $188,000
3. 2023-03-17
   soldstatus $188,000 Closed Sale or Rented 482-char remark

   Show marketing remark (482 chars)

   Quaint and Cozy 2 Bedroom 2 Bath Updated Brick Ranch. Updates include both bathrooms (2018), floors (Hardwood floors also throughout under the carpet), This home offers a spacious kitchen with extensive countertop and cabinet space, Full Basement with ample storage, Double concrete Driveway, attached garage, a new concrete patio overlooking large fully fenced yard and much more. you do not want to miss this! schedule an appointment today, showings start saturday 1/7 at 10am

4. 2023-01-13
   status Pending Sale 482-char remark

   Show marketing remark (482 chars)

   Quaint and Cozy 2 Bedroom 2 Bath Updated Brick Ranch. Updates include both bathrooms (2018), floors (Hardwood floors also throughout under the carpet), This home offers a spacious kitchen with extensive countertop and cabinet space, Full Basement with ample storage, Double concrete Driveway, attached garage, a new concrete patio overlooking large fully fenced yard and much more. you do not want to miss this! schedule an appointment today, showings start saturday 1/7 at 10am

5. 2023-01-10
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 482-char remark

   Show marketing remark (482 chars)

   Quaint and Cozy 2 Bedroom 2 Bath Updated Brick Ranch. Updates include both bathrooms (2018), floors (Hardwood floors also throughout under the carpet), This home offers a spacious kitchen with extensive countertop and cabinet space, Full Basement with ample storage, Double concrete Driveway, attached garage, a new concrete patio overlooking large fully fenced yard and much more. you do not want to miss this! schedule an appointment today, showings start saturday 1/7 at 10am

6. 2023-01-03
   listed $169,900 Active 482-char remark

   Show marketing remark (482 chars)

   Quaint and Cozy 2 Bedroom 2 Bath Updated Brick Ranch. Updates include both bathrooms (2018), floors (Hardwood floors also throughout under the carpet), This home offers a spacious kitchen with extensive countertop and cabinet space, Full Basement with ample storage, Double concrete Driveway, attached garage, a new concrete patio overlooking large fully fenced yard and much more. you do not want to miss this! schedule an appointment today, showings start saturday 1/7 at 10am

7. 2019-08-09
   soldstatus $130,000
8. 2016-11-22
   soldstatus $126,000 Closed Sale or Rented

   Show marketing remark (489 chars)

   Lovely 2 bedroom brick front Ranch is ready for a new owner! Updates galore including kitchen, bathroom w/ ceramic tile surrounded & Floors, most windows & architectural roof. Hardwood floors throughout(under carpets) Full dry basement w/ ample storage double driveway attached garage & large deep yard w/ shed. Neutral décor. Showings start Open house Sunday July 10, 2016 1-3 showings will start. Don't miss your chance this home will not be on the market long!

9. 2016-11-21
   soldstatus $126,000
10. 2016-07-19
    status Pending Sale

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Lovely 2 bedroom brick front Ranch is ready for a new owner! Updates galore including kitchen, bathroom w/ ceramic tile surrounded & Floors, most windows & architectural roof. Hardwood floors throughout(under carpets) Full dry basement w/ ample storage double driveway attached garage & large deep yard w/ shed. Neutral décor. Showings start Open house Sunday July 10, 2016 1-3 showings will start. Don't miss your chance this home will not be on the market long!

11. 2016-07-05
    listed $119,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Lovely 2 bedroom brick front Ranch is ready for a new owner! Updates galore including kitchen, bathroom w/ ceramic tile surrounded & Floors, most windows & architectural roof. Hardwood floors throughout(under carpets) Full dry basement w/ ample storage double driveway attached garage & large deep yard w/ shed. Neutral décor. Showings start Open house Sunday July 10, 2016 1-3 showings will start. Don't miss your chance this home will not be on the market long!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,499 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,023 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$524/yr (+$44/mo · 21.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,796
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$2,499
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,504
• − Management: −$1,504
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$5,624
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,350
• After-tax cash flow: $-559/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628740
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,061
• Composite: 35.03/100
• National rank: #5041
• State rank: #508 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #169

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,260
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+260.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-21 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $209,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $188,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-17 Sold (MLS) $188,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-01-13 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-01-10 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-01-03 Listed $169,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2016-11-22 Sold (MLS) $126,000 WNYREIS
• 2016-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $126,000 Public Records
• 2016-07-19 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2016-07-05 Listed $119,900 WNYREIS
• 2008-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $58,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,499 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.