2409 NW 47th St · Lawton, OK 73505

$134,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,652 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1963 Est $170k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sold in "As-Is" condition. This home has a super large backyard that's fenced in.

Key facts

• Built 1963
• Listed 12 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property condition: Updated/Remodeled

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available; Electric power
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Brick veneer construction; Residential property
• Construction: Brick veneer; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation; Built/updated (year not specified)
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Porch; Chain link fencing; Composition roof; Public maintained road access; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Range hood; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not specified
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Crawl space foundation/basement access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $134k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 6.1% in Lawton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#206 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, commute F.
• Lawton (urban): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 270 in OK (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ridgecrest Es (math 27% / reading 17%, grade F, #413 of 845 statewide, top 54%, 453 students, 0% FRL); Lawton Hs (math 16% / reading 21%, grade F, #302 of 447 statewide, top 68%, 1,417 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 398 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $930 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $134k implies a 647% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,382 (6.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.96%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,156
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4825 NW Hoover Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+3%)	2mo	$180,000	$106	79
2306 NW 41st St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+3%)	2mo	$139,900	$82	69
4636 NW Lincoln Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+9%)	3mo	$140,500	$78	60
1727 NW 49th St	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-3%)	5mo	$62,100	$39	59
2329 NW Dunstan Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+3%)	9mo	$180,000	$106	56
3909 NW Denver Ave	0.72mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,600 (-3%)	1mo	$165,000	$103	53
4601 NW Ridgecrest Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+9%)	3mo	$195,000	$108	53
5421 NW King Richard Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+3%)	7mo	$242,500	$143	52
1529 NW 43rd St	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (+3%)	6mo	$115,000	$68	51
2243 NW 40th St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,453 (-12%)	12mo	$70,000	$48	48
1506 NW 47th St	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,408 (-15%)	11mo	$129,000	$92	36
2308 NW Nottingham Rd	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (+9%)	12mo	$190,000	$106	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-9,158
• Equity at exit: $20,054

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $16,458
• Equity at exit: $11,629

Cash invested: $37,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73505

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 398
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,254 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$705
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $881/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,057

Max offer price $134,500

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,625
• Closing costs: $4,035
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $134,500 Active
3. 2019-12-18
   soldstatus $18,000 91-char remark

   Show marketing remark (91 chars)

   Sold in "As-Is" condition. This home has a super large backyard that's fenced in.

4. 2019-11-26
   listed $25,000 91-char remark

   Show marketing remark (91 chars)

   Sold in "As-Is" condition. This home has a super large backyard that's fenced in.

5. 2011-08-12
   soldstatus $30,000
6. 2011-05-23
   listed $31,900
7. 2001-05-07
   soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $881 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,210 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$330/yr (+$27/mo · 37.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,534
• − Property taxes: −$881
• − Insurance: −$672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,204
• − Management: −$1,204
• − Depreciation: −$3,913
• Taxable loss: −$362
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$87
• After-tax cash flow: $1,956/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawton
• NCES district ID: 4017250
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,618
• Composite: 19.68/100
• National rank: #8732
• State rank: #137 of 270 in OK

Livability — Lawton

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #15131

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawton, OK
• County: Comanche County · 96,361 people
• City population: 89,233
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• Population (ZIP): 47,790
• Household income: $58,272
• Rent vs Own: 48.2% rent · 51.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1986.0

Population outlook (Comanche County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 124,518 people
• By 2030: 124,231 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 122,193 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 120,368 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 120,492 · -3.2%
• By 2100: 123,113 · -1.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 17% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 16% Native American 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comanche

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.3) · D 37.4% · R 60.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: -17.5pp · 2024: -23.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.3 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.88%
• Current HPI: 169.4524
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.14%
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+124.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — LBRMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $134,500 LBRMLS
• 2019-12-18 Sold (MLS) $18,000 LBRMLS
• 2019-11-26 Listed $25,000 LBRMLS
• 2011-08-12 Sold (MLS) $30,000 LBRMLS
• 2011-05-23 Listed $31,900 LBRMLS
• 2001-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $881 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.