1040 Berry Rd · Hudson, TX 75904

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 2015 0.73 ac lot $106/sqft · 33% below area Est $227k · 38% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Super Clean 3br/2bth in HUDSON SCHOOLS! Come visit this home conveniently located just outside the Lufkin Loop. Tucked away for privacy this home sits on . 73 of an acre. Room to grow! New fridge and stove complete the package!!

Key facts

• New stove
• Room to grow
• New fridge

Tags

• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• TUCKED AWAY FOR PRIVACY
• ROOM TO GROW
• NEW FRIDGE
• NEW STOVE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Composition roof; 0.73-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closets

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $212 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.0% in Hudson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#791 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hudson ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #85 of 826 in TX (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,771 (6.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.50%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $226,709
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -38.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-9,221
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $9,094
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75904

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,308 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $347/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,039

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3011 Ted Trout Dr Lot 11 Lufkin, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,095	$0.90	43d	1	0.30mi
3301 Lotus Ln Lufkin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	734	$1,145	$1.56	43d	3	0.99mi
861 Mount Carmel Rd Lufkin, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,045	$0.86	43d	4	1.23mi
1214 Lotus Ln Lufkin, TX	2.0	2.0	893	$900	$1.01	43d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,900 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $139,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $144,900 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $144,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $144,900 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    price $144,900 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,900 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 16 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 15 DOM
19. 2026-05-14
    listed $159,900 Active 228-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $347 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,560 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,214/yr (+$184/mo · 638.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,693
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$347
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,255
• − Management: −$1,255
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $229
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$55
• After-tax cash flow: $2,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hudson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823790
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,047
• Composite: 49.4/100
• National rank: #2012
• State rank: #85 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hudson

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #791
• US rank: #14441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hudson, TX
• County: Angelina County · 62,696 people
• Metro: Lufkin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,462
• Household income: $60,205
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1159.0

Population outlook (Angelina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,174 people
• By 2030: 90,697 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 91,291 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 91,168 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 88,961 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 80,590 · -10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 12% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Angelina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.0) · D 23.7% · R 75.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -52.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.0 2020: R+46.1 2016: R+47.3 2012: R+43.9 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.71%
• Current HPI: 213.4236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lufkin, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $144,900 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $149,900 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $159,900 Deep East Texas MLS

Property tax history

-42.0%/yr

Latest (2017): $347 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.