2903 38th St SW · Lehigh Acres, FL 33976

$280,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2007 0.25 ac lot Est $307k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your private oasis in Lehigh Acres! This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a desirable split floorplan that provides space and privacy for the entire family. Step inside and enjoy the comfort of a newer A/C system and peace of mind with updated well equipment. The open living area flows effortlessly into the kitchen and dining space—perfect for entertaining or relaxing at home. Outdoors, you’ll fall in love with the spacious deck that surrounds your private above-ground pool, ideal for enjoying Florida’s sunny weather. The lush landscaping adds charm and enhances the peaceful setting on this quiet, private street. Even better, the home is

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned RS-1; Lot is regular shape (~0.2540 acres); Total area listed as 1849 (source: Property Appraiser Office); One unit, one floor
• HOA & community: Non-gated community; No HOA maintenance; No HOA amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Paved driveway; Street parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residential; 1 story (ranch); Rear exposure facing southwest; Located in Lehigh Acres development
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Built in 2007
• Exterior features: Private above-ground pool; Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Preserve view; City-maintained paved public road access; Windows and storm protection noted in remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Island; Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator/Freezer
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; First-floor bedroom; Master bedroom on ground level; Split bedrooms layout
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with combined tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Solar panels
• Interior features: Vaulted ceiling; Pantry; Closet cabinets; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet; Great room floor plan; Split bedroom floor plan; Family room; Screened lanai/porch; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-353/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (24.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.7% in Lehigh Acres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, schools D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 786 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $280k implies a 657% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,457 (24.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.45%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $306,944
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3024 35th St SW	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,389 (-1%)	10mo	$300,000	$216	72
3010 44th St SW	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-4%)	7mo	$305,000	$225	67
4703 Joan Ave S	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,408 (0%)	10mo	$270,000	$192	62
3009 38th St SW	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,551 (+10%)	21mo	$333,000	$215	58
2916 41st St SW	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+14%)	12mo	$364,900	$228	57
2906 29th St SW	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,538 (+9%)	2mo	$335,000	$218	54
2704 46th St SW	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,532 (+9%)	9mo	$330,000	$215	54
2907 48th St SW	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,503 (+7%)	9mo	$293,000	$195	51
3104 42nd St SW	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,551 (+10%)	14mo	$295,000	$190	47
3210 38th St SW	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,285 (-9%)	14mo	$284,990	$222	41
3215 40th St SW	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,477 (+5%)	19mo	$363,000	$246	41
2807 48th St SW	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,545 (+10%)	20mo	$369,500	$239	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $144,338
• Equity at exit: $252,246

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.30×
• Total profit: $415,246
• Equity at exit: $543,978

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33976

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 786
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,105 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,284/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,142

Max offer price $274,807

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $129	-5% $50	+0% $-29	+5% $-109	+10% $-188
Rent	-10% $-196	-5% $-113	+0% $-29	+5% $54	+10% $137
Rate	-1.0pp $112	-0.5pp $42	base $-29	+0.5pp $-102	+1.0pp $-176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3001 37th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.5	1235	$1,705	$1.38	24d	1	0.13mi
2916 42nd St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,960	$1.40	4d	1	0.25mi
2916 42nd St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,930	$1.38	3d	1	0.25mi
3012 40th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1427	$1,950	$1.37	24d	1	0.30mi
3102 39th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1097	$1,630	$1.49	22d	1	0.43mi
3114 39th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1493	$2,100	$1.41	17d	1	0.52mi
3114 39th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1493	$2,100	$1.41	4d	1	0.52mi
3201 42nd St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1571	$2,195	$1.40	4d	1	0.59mi
3201 42nd St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1571	$2,195	$1.40	4d	1	0.59mi
2911 48th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1723	$2,200	$1.28	11d	1	0.64mi
2612 31st St Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1389	$1,799	$1.30	17d	1	0.64mi
2612 31st St Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1365	$1,799	$1.32	15d	1	0.64mi
4702 Loraine Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1354	$2,000	$1.48	15d	1	0.68mi
2710 28th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1742	$2,450	$1.41	24d	1	0.73mi
4701 Connie Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,900	$1.45	15d	1	0.76mi
2908 51st St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,796	$1.28	4d	1	0.78mi
2708 27th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1698	$2,280	$1.34	4d	1	0.79mi
2513 48th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1423	$1,750	$1.23	17d	1	0.81mi
2819 51st St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1472	$2,250	$1.53	24d	1	0.81mi
813 Alabama Rd S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,495	$1.25	24d	1	0.84mi
3201 29th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,950	$1.06	4d	1	0.85mi
397 Pennfield Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,100	$1.18	24d	1	0.85mi
2811 25th St SW Unit NA Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,990	$1.39	24d	1	0.85mi
3313 36th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1723	$2,300	$1.33	24d	1	0.88mi
20517 Hazelnut Ct S Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,050	$1.31	24d	1	0.88mi
3201 28th St Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1389	$2,000	$1.44	4d	1	0.89mi
3008 25th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1565	$1,711	$1.09	22d	1	0.91mi
20559 Hazelnut Ct S Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$1,750	$1.12	24d	1	0.94mi
20483 Copperhead Dr Unit 20483 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	3.0	1849	$2,300	$1.24	11d	1	0.94mi
2914 24th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,250	$1.46	24d	1	0.95mi
3008 23rd St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,350	$1.43	24d	1	1.03mi
749 Alabama Rd S Unit 749 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,800	$1.41	3d	1	1.03mi
2602 24th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1358	$1,800	$1.33	4d	1	1.04mi
325 Paulcrest Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1619	$2,300	$1.42	24d	1	1.08mi
20673 Hazelnut Ct Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,099	$1.34	24d	1	1.08mi
177 Pennfield St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,850	$1.48	24d	1	1.08mi
2507 53rd St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1714	$1,950	$1.14	4d	1	1.09mi
2512 54th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,750	$0.95	4d	1	1.09mi
3203 24th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,300	$1.54	22d	1	1.10mi
20699 Hazelnut Ct Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,351	$1.50	24d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   pricedays on marketlisting id $280,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $325,000 Active 238 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $325,000 Active 237 DOM
4. 2026-01-12
   price $325,000
5. 2025-10-06
   listed $335,000 Active
6. 2025-09-28
   historical
7. 2025-03-31
   listed $350,000 Active
8. 2024-12-31
   historical
9. 2024-07-15
   listed $330,000 Active
10. 2024-05-31
    historical
11. 2023-09-22
    listed $350,000 Active
12. 2008-08-18
    soldstatus $37,000
13. 2006-05-05
    soldstatus $97,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,284 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,324 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,040/yr (+$87/mo · 81.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,255
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$1,284
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,020
• − Management: −$2,020
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$5,300
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,272
• After-tax cash flow: $919/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lehigh Acres

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #826
• US rank: #20055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lehigh Acres, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 130,638
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 20,277
• Household income: $72,679
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 574.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% Two or more races 30% White 24% Black 20% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 18% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 46% English-only · Spanish 43% French/Haitian/Cajun 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.77%
• Current HPI: 340.4255
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+232.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $325,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $335,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-09-28 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-03-31 Listed $350,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2024-07-15 Listed $330,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-05-31 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2023-09-22 Listed $350,000 FORTMLS
• 2008-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $97,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,284 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.