152 Cherokee Trl · Lakehills, TX 78063

$135,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 799 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 434 Days on market

Built 1955 0.32 ac lot $169/sqft · at area comps Est $192k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Not on Showing Time, 24 hour notice to show. All showings must be accompany. Part of the garage has been converted into a second bedroom and bath. Quaint 2 bedroom 2 bath cinder block home close to Medina Lake. This home sits on 4 lots with a private well and septic. Large Mature Oak Trees scattered through out the property.

Key facts

• Private well
• Converted garage
• 0.32 acre lot

Tags

• CONVERTED GARAGE
• PRIVATE WELL
• LARGE MATURE OAK TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $174 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.3% in Lakehills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#963 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bandera ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 267 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Bandera County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 434 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 434 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.52%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,061
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -29.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13700 Park Road 37	0.18mi	1/1.0 (-1)	836 (+5%)	10mo	$159,900	$191	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-10,842
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $4,673
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78063

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,291 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $979/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,071

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
707 Faurie Rd Lakehills, TX	1.0	1.0	910	$1,200	$1.32	1d	1	1.34mi
955 Faurie Rd Lakehills, TX	1.0	1.0	600	$1,400	$2.33	1d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $135,000 Active 434 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $135,000 Active 433 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $135,000 Active 432 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $135,000 Active 431 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $135,000 Active 430 DOM
6. 2026-02-27
   price $135,000 332-char remark

   Show marketing remark (332 chars)

   Not on Showing Time, 24 hour notice to show. All showings must be accompany. Part of the garage has been converted into a second bedroom and bath. Quaint 2 bedroom 2 bath cinder block home close to Medina Lake. This home sits on 4 lots with a private well and septic. Large Mature Oak Trees scattered through out the property.

7. 2025-10-30
   status Back on Market 332-char remark

   Show marketing remark (332 chars)

   Not on Showing Time, 24 hour notice to show. All showings must be accompany. Part of the garage has been converted into a second bedroom and bath. Quaint 2 bedroom 2 bath cinder block home close to Medina Lake. This home sits on 4 lots with a private well and septic. Large Mature Oak Trees scattered through out the property.

8. 2025-10-27
   historical 332-char remark

   Show marketing remark (332 chars)

   Not on Showing Time, 24 hour notice to show. All showings must be accompany. Part of the garage has been converted into a second bedroom and bath. Quaint 2 bedroom 2 bath cinder block home close to Medina Lake. This home sits on 4 lots with a private well and septic. Large Mature Oak Trees scattered through out the property.

9. 2025-09-30
   price $125,000 332-char remark

   Show marketing remark (332 chars)

   Not on Showing Time, 24 hour notice to show. All showings must be accompany. Part of the garage has been converted into a second bedroom and bath. Quaint 2 bedroom 2 bath cinder block home close to Medina Lake. This home sits on 4 lots with a private well and septic. Large Mature Oak Trees scattered through out the property.

10. 2025-03-24
    listed $170,000 New 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    Not on Showing Time, 24 hour notice to show. All showings must be accompany. Part of the garage has been converted into a second bedroom and bath. Quaint 2 bedroom 2 bath cinder block home close to Medina Lake. This home sits on 4 lots with a private well and septic. Large Mature Oak Trees scattered through out the property.

11. 2018-11-20
    soldstatus
12. 2018-10-31
    status Pending 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    Weekend getaway or cozy retreat near Lake Medina. Owner will sell it furnished with an acceptable offer. Includes a 16' fiberglass fishing boat. Lot is 0.32 acres according to tax record. Water well and septic system on property. Square footage is approx. 949 per owner. Buyer should verify all measurements. Owner does not have a survey.

13. 2018-10-28
    historical Active Option 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    Weekend getaway or cozy retreat near Lake Medina. Owner will sell it furnished with an acceptable offer. Includes a 16' fiberglass fishing boat. Lot is 0.32 acres according to tax record. Water well and septic system on property. Square footage is approx. 949 per owner. Buyer should verify all measurements. Owner does not have a survey.

14. 2018-10-20
    soldstatus Sold 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    Weekend getaway or cozy retreat near Lake Medina. Owner will sell it furnished with an acceptable offer. Includes a 16' fiberglass fishing boat. Lot is 0.32 acres according to tax record. Water well and septic system on property. Square footage is approx. 949 per owner. Buyer should verify all measurements. Owner does not have a survey.

15. 2018-09-19
    price $89,500 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    Weekend getaway or cozy retreat near Lake Medina. Owner will sell it furnished with an acceptable offer. Includes a 16' fiberglass fishing boat. Lot is 0.32 acres according to tax record. Water well and septic system on property. Square footage is approx. 949 per owner. Buyer should verify all measurements. Owner does not have a survey.

16. 2018-06-26
    listed $89,900 New 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    Weekend getaway or cozy retreat near Lake Medina. Owner will sell it furnished with an acceptable offer. Includes a 16' fiberglass fishing boat. Lot is 0.32 acres according to tax record. Water well and septic system on property. Square footage is approx. 949 per owner. Buyer should verify all measurements. Owner does not have a survey.

17. 2017-04-11
    soldstatus
18. 2004-12-09
    soldstatus
19. 2004-12-03
    soldstatus
20. 2004-10-07
    listed $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $979 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,492/yr (+$124/mo · 152.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,487
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$979
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,239
• − Management: −$1,239
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$134
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$32
• After-tax cash flow: $2,118/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bandera ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809360
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,771
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6194
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lakehills

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #963
• US rank: #17024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakehills, TX
• City population: 10,594
• Population (ZIP): 10,594

Population outlook (Bandera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,614 people
• By 2030: 23,102 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 23,489 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 23,264 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 23,607 · +4.4%
• By 2100: 22,265 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bandera

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.9) · D 18.6% · R 80.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.5pp toward R · 2008: -50.4pp · 2024: -61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.9 2020: R+59.4 2016: R+63.0 2012: R+59.0 2008: R+50.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.38%
• Current HPI: 189.1086
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+440.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $135,000 LERA
• 2025-10-30 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-10-27 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $125,000 LERA
• 2025-03-24 Listed $170,000 LERA
• 2018-11-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-10-31 Pending — LERA
• 2018-10-28 Contingent — LERA
• 2018-10-20 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2018-09-19 Price Changed $89,500 LERA
• 2018-06-26 Listed $89,900 LERA
• 2017-04-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-12-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-12-03 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2004-10-07 Listed $25,000 LERA

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $979 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.