31030 Gayle Prairie Oaks St · Waller, TX 77484

$283,790

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,912 sqft · Land · 26 Days on market

Built 2026 $148/sqft · at area comps Est $286k · at est. $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH VERSATILE LAYOUT Introducing the Prism floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 1,912 square feet of modern living space. The open concept design connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The home includes a convenient Jack and Jill bath serving the secondary bedrooms, while the private primary suite offers a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom. A covered patio and fully fenced backyard complete this inviting home in Williams Landing, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 26 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $284k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-569/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.0% in Waller — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1183 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $218,907 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.72%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,040
• List price: $283,790
• Delta: -0.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-55,503
• Equity at exit: $42,314

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-77,340
• Equity at exit: $24,537

Cash invested: $79,461 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1183
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,189 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,488
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,288/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,249

Max offer price $275,410

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $33	+0% $-47	+5% $-128	+10% $-208
Rent	-10% $-220	-5% $-134	+0% $-47	+5% $39	+10% $125
Rate	-1.0pp $95	-0.5pp $25	base $-47	+0.5pp $-121	+1.0pp $-196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,948
• Closing costs: $8,514
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31406 Gayle Prairie Oaks St Waller, TX	4.0	3.0	2260	$2,450	$1.08	5d	1	0.34mi
17239 King Eider Rd Waller, TX	4.0	2.5	2260	$1,995	$0.88	13d	1	0.88mi
17227 King Eider Rd Waller, TX	5.0	3.0	2439	$2,145	$0.88	25d	1	0.89mi
17119 King Eider Rd Waller, TX	4.0	2.5	1994	$1,900	$0.95	22d	1	0.90mi
17222 King Eider Rd Waller, TX	4.0	2.5	2178	$1,935	$0.89	6d	1	0.92mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 850-char remark

   Show marketing remark (850 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH VERSATILE LAYOUT Introducing the Prism floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 1,912 square feet of modern living space. The open concept design connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The home includes a convenient Jack and Jill bath serving the secondary bedrooms, while the private primary suite offers a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom. A covered patio and fully fenced backyard complete this inviting home in Williams Landing, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

2. 2026-05-11
   price $283,790 850-char remark

   Show marketing remark (850 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH VERSATILE LAYOUT Introducing the Prism floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 1,912 square feet of modern living space. The open concept design connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The home includes a convenient Jack and Jill bath serving the secondary bedrooms, while the private primary suite offers a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom. A covered patio and fully fenced backyard complete this inviting home in Williams Landing, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

3. 2026-04-22
   price $252,990 850-char remark

   Show marketing remark (850 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH VERSATILE LAYOUT Introducing the Prism floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 1,912 square feet of modern living space. The open concept design connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The home includes a convenient Jack and Jill bath serving the secondary bedrooms, while the private primary suite offers a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom. A covered patio and fully fenced backyard complete this inviting home in Williams Landing, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

4. 2026-04-15
   listed $283,790 Active 850-char remark

   Show marketing remark (850 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH VERSATILE LAYOUT Introducing the Prism floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 1,912 square feet of modern living space. The open concept design connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The home includes a convenient Jack and Jill bath serving the secondary bedrooms, while the private primary suite offers a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom. A covered patio and fully fenced backyard complete this inviting home in Williams Landing, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,288 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,193 · $433/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,905/yr (+$325/mo · 303.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,269
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,897
• − Property taxes: −$1,288
• − Insurance: −$1,419
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,102
• − Management: −$2,102
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$8,256
• Taxable loss: −$5,549
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,332
• After-tax cash flow: $763/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waller

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1003
• US rank: #17792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 270.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $283,790 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $252,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $283,790 HARMLS