Mesquite Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$333,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,881 sqft · SingleFamily · 155 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Mesquite plan at Magnolia Woods is a beautiful two-story home offering a spacious and functional layout. Entertain family and friends on the main level of this home, which includes an expansive family room, separate dining room and an upgraded kitchen complete with granite counters, Whirlpool appliances and gorgeous cabinets.

Key facts

• Whirlpool appliances
• Separate dining room
• Upgraded kitchen

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• EXPANSIVE FAMILY ROOM
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• WHIRLPOOL APPLIANCES

🏗️ New construction. The $333,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $354,432.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $334k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-776 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (27.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (36.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (36.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$61k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($294k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,829 (36.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.38%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,432
• List price: $333,900
• Delta: -5.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21694 Lotus Elm St	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,881 (0%)	2mo	$343,900	$183	94
21554 Bluebonnet Bay Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,847 (-2%)	2mo	$359,900	$195	93
21531 Bluebonnet Bay Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,847 (-2%)	10mo	$354,900	$192	86
21530 Bluebonnet Bay Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,801 (-4%)	2mo	$354,900	$197	83
21560 Bluebonnet Bay Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,801 (-4%)	8mo	$346,900	$193	79
21527 Bluebonnet Bay Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,801 (-4%)	10mo	$352,900	$196	77
21663 Lotus Elm St	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,815 (-4%)	11mo	$311,900	$172	77
21564 Bluebonnet Bay Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,658 (-12%)	3mo	$345,900	$209	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $138,081
• Equity at exit: $319,300

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.39×
• Total profit: $435,456
• Equity at exit: $688,583

Cash invested: $99,241 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,118 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,859
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$443 /mo · $5,316/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $-776

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,101

Max offer price $242,151

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,608
• Closing costs: $10,633
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21619 Bluebonnet Bay Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1911	$2,235	$1.17	1d	1	0.03mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $333,900 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $333,900 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $333,900 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $333,900 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $333,900 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $333,900 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $333,900 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $333,900 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $333,900 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $333,900 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $333,900 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $333,900 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $333,900 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-04-02
    price $333,900 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    The Mesquite plan at Magnolia Woods is a beautiful two-story home offering a spacious and functional layout. Entertain family and friends on the main level of this home, which includes an expansive family room, separate dining room and an upgraded kitchen complete with granite counters, Whirlpool appliances and gorgeous cabinets.

15. 2026-01-15
    listed $329,900 Active 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    The Mesquite plan at Magnolia Woods is a beautiful two-story home offering a spacious and functional layout. Entertain family and friends on the main level of this home, which includes an expansive family room, separate dining room and an upgraded kitchen complete with granite counters, Whirlpool appliances and gorgeous cabinets.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,419
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,854
• − Property taxes: −$5,316
• − Insurance: −$1,772
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,034
• − Management: −$2,034
• − Depreciation: −$10,311
• Taxable loss: −$15,901
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,816
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $333,900 Zillow
• 2026-01-15 Listed $329,900 Zillow