Ripley V G Plan · Carlyss, LA 70665

$248,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,858 sqft · SingleFamily · 36 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

- Open Floor Plan - Four Bedrooms, Two Bathrooms - Brick & Siding Exterior - Master Garden Tub - Separate Master Shower - Double Master Vanity - Double Walk-In Master Closets - Canned Lighting in Kitchen - Two Car Garage - Covered Rear Patio

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Master garden tub
• Double master vanity

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• BRICK & SIDING EXTERIOR
• MASTER GARDEN TUB
• SEPARATE MASTER SHOWER
• DOUBLE MASTER VANITY
• DOUBLE WALK-IN MASTER CLOSETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $247,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan (Ripley V G)
• Exterior features: Living area 1858

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Ripley V G; Active listing

🏗️ New construction. The $248,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $325,504.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-185 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $249k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 8.3% in Carlyss — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#237 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Calcasieu Parish (other): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #29 of 98 in LA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 236 active listings in the ZIP; 1,298 units permitted in Calcasieu Parish in 2024 (526 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Calcasieu County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $241,520 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.43%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,504
• List price: $248,990
• Delta: -23.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5231 Winnie Dr	0.50mi	4/3.0	1,841 (-1%)	9mo	$275,000	$149	63
222 Tara St	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,800 (-3%)	20mo	$155,000	$86	62
470 Garren Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,686 (-9%)	23mo	$232,900	$138	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-64,481
• Equity at exit: $48,534

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-71,151
• Equity at exit: $28,144

Cash invested: $91,141 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70665

• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,613 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,707
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$407 /mo · $4,883/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $-185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,847

Max offer price $298,751

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,376
• Closing costs: $9,765
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $248,990 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $248,990 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $248,990 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $248,990 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $248,990 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $248,990 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $248,990 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $248,990 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $248,990 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $248,990 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $248,990 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $248,990 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $248,990 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $248,990 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $248,990 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $248,990 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $247,990 Active 247-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,361
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,233
• − Property taxes: −$4,883
• − Insurance: −$1,628
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,509
• − Management: −$2,509
• − Depreciation: −$9,469
• Taxable loss: −$7,869
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,889
• After-tax cash flow: $-330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This home requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including a new roof, exterior painting, and landscaping. Significant updates are needed to improve its condition and increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears to be old and weathered, with visible signs of wear and tear.
• Major exterior siding — The siding and paint appear to be peeling and in need of repainting.
• Major landscaping — The landscaping appears to be overgrown and in need of trimming and maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof will significantly improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value.
• Resale exterior painting — Repainting the exterior will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value.
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale and rental value.
• Both interior updates — Updating the interior will improve the home's overall condition and increase its resale and rental value.
• Both HVAC system — A new HVAC system will improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, increasing its resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The roof appears to be old and weathered, with visible signs of wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The siding and paint appear to be peeling and in need of repainting.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The landscaping appears to be overgrown and in need of trimming and maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof will significantly improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale exterior painting — Repainting the exterior will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale and rental value. ↑
• Both interior updates — Updating the interior will improve the home's overall condition and increase its resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC system — A new HVAC system will improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, increasing its resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calcasieu Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200330
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -39.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -33.00%
• Median HH income: $44,700
• Composite: 31.45/100
• National rank: #5979
• State rank: #29 of 98 in LA

Livability — Carlyss

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #237
• US rank: #18031

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlyss, LA
• Population (ZIP): 12,891

Population outlook (Calcasieu County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,179 people
• By 2030: 218,199 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 228,486 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 236,208 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 251,696 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 247,848 · +16.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Calcasieu

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.6) · D 29.5% · R 69.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -24.6pp · 2024: -39.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.6 2020: R+35.2 2016: R+33.3 2012: R+28.7 2008: R+24.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.65%
• Current HPI: 99.2379
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B