Carter Plan · San Antonio, TX 78223

$176,499

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,386 sqft · SingleFamily · 118 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Crestmore Collection is a new series of single-family homes in the Grace Gardens masterplan in San Antonio, TX, offering affordable new home options with a variety of floorplan designs. Residents will enjoy proximity to Loop 410 for easy access to local shopping, dining and entertainment options. Outdoor recreation is a short drive away on Calaveras Lake, and the community is located near Brooks City Base, perfect for military families and personnel.

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 118 days

Tags

• PROXIMITY TO LOOP 410
• ACCESS TO LOCAL SHOPPING
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• NEAR BROOKS CITY BASE

🏗️ New construction. The $176,499 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $364,626.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $176k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-968 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $176k).
• Recommended offer: $161k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• North East ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #276 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 325 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,965/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 2809% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($161k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.

Recommended offer $160,614 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.37%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 15.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $364,626
• List price: $176,499
• Delta: -51.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2918 Chisholm Trl	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,282 (-8%)	2mo	$299,000	$233	71
271 Middlebury	0.70mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,332 (-4%)	6mo	$170,000	$128	46
8715 Oak Ledge	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,511 (+9%)	10mo	$359,000	$238	44
8811 Pineridge	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,588 (+15%)	10mo	$400,000	$252	41
8618 Sagebrush Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,556 (+12%)	24mo	$325,000	$209	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-126,446
• Equity at exit: $54,367

10-year hold

• IRR: -87.0%
• Equity multiple: -1.07×
• Total profit: $-211,601
• Equity at exit: $31,526

Cash invested: $102,095 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78223

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 325
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,965 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,912
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$456 /mo · $5,469/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-968

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,190

Max offer price $224,599

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-716	-5% $-842	+0% $-968	+5% $-1,094	+10% $-1,220
Rent	-10% $-1,123	-5% $-1,045	+0% $-968	+5% $-890	+10% $-812
Rate	-1.0pp $-784	-0.5pp $-875	base $-968	+0.5pp $-1,062	+1.0pp $-1,158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,156
• Closing costs: $10,939
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
414 Laramie Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,295	$1.30	24d	1	0.53mi
515 Cave Ln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1741	$2,500	$1.44	2d	1	0.59mi
8702 Village Dr #1306 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,500	$2.08	44d	1	0.64mi
33 Lynn Batts Ln San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,680	$1.62	4d	22	0.67mi
407 Haverford Dr San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1412	$1,600	$1.13	3d	1	0.74mi
2606 Country Square St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1804	$2,500	$1.39	24d	1	0.80mi
231 Middlebury Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1321	$2,100	$1.59	44d	1	0.81mi
3831 Harry Wurzbach Rd #6 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1506	$2,000	$1.33	14d	1	0.84mi
3819 Harry Wurzbach Rd Unit 3213 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,957	$1.45	3d	1	0.90mi
3223 Oakleaf Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1542	$1,850	$1.20	24d	1	0.90mi
8800 Starcrest Dr San Antonio, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1196	$1,599	$1.34	3d	18	0.98mi
211 Eastley Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	987	$1,550	$1.57	24d	1	1.03mi
10014 Broadway San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$1,540	$1.45	24d	15	1.17mi
3518 Herron Ct San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1772	$1,800	$1.02	24d	1	1.21mi
2607 NE Interstate 410 Loop San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,120	$0.93	44d	1	1.43mi
2902 Sir Phillip Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,200	$1.56	18d	1	1.49mi
4110 Swans Lndg Unit 101 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1245	$1,550	$1.24	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $176,499 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $176,499 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $176,499 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $176,499 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $176,499 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,999 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $175,999 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,999 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $174,999 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,999 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,999 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,999 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,999 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-02-20
    listed $174,999 Active 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    The Crestmore Collection is a new series of single-family homes in the Grace Gardens masterplan in San Antonio, TX, offering affordable new home options with a variety of floorplan designs. Residents will enjoy proximity to Loop 410 for easy access to local shopping, dining and entertainment options. Outdoor recreation is a short drive away on Calaveras Lake, and the community is located near Brooks City Base, perfect for military families and personnel.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,577
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,425
• − Property taxes: −$5,469
• − Insurance: −$1,823
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,886
• − Management: −$1,886
• − Depreciation: −$10,607
• Taxable loss: −$18,520
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,445
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home in the Crestmore Collection is move-in ready with new construction and a prime location in San Antonio, TX.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North East ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832940
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $57,715
• Composite: 38.1/100
• National rank: #4276
• State rank: #276 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $52,088
• Rent vs Own: 42.4% rent · 57.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2809.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 28% White 16% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.06%
• Current HPI: 265.2235
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.36%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Listed $174,999 Zillow