562 Crows Nest Ln · Gananda, NY 14502

$289,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1997 0.29 ac lot Est $351k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 562 Crows Nest Lane, a meticulously maintained and beautifully updated raised ranch located at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac in Walworth, within the highly sought-after Penfield School District. Offering 1,560 square feet of comfortable living space, this home features 3 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom with thoughtful updates throughout. The upper level showcases a bright and inviting living room with soaring ceilings and stunning luxury flooring, creating an open and airy feel. The updated white kitchen with stainless steel appliances flows seamlessly into the dining area and overlooks the oversized deck and gorgeous above-ground pool—perfect for entertaining and enjoying the

Key facts

• Oversized deck
• Cul-de-sac
• Raised ranch

Tags

• RAISED RANCH
• CUL-DE-SAC
• PENFIELD SCHOOL DISTRICT
• UPDATED WHITE KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OVERSIZED DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $290k).
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.2% in Gananda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Penfield Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #67 of 590 in NY (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $290k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $289,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.03%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $351,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
562 Crows Nest Ln	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,560 (0%)	1mo	$338,000	$217	99
441 Parkside Trl	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,556 (-0%)	1mo	$412,500	$265	88
573 Beaver Creek Rd	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,560 (0%)	8mo	$302,000	$194	81
3479 W Walworth Rd	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,656 (+6%)	2mo	$380,000	$229	74
3410 Dewberry Ln	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,560 (0%)	19mo	$302,500	$194	71
3504 Scenic Way	0.34mi	3/3.5	1,578 (+1%)	4mo	$355,000	$225	69
419 Everwild Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+11%)	9mo	$440,000	$255	59
294 Mildahn Rd	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,440 (-8%)	1mo	$3,000	$2	54
201 Plumegrass Run	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,463 (-6%)	12mo	$340,000	$232	44
361 Rt-441	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,421 (-9%)	18mo	$213,000	$150	38
3145 W Walworth Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-13%)	20mo	$325,000	$240	32
285 Farmview Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,780 (+14%)	18mo	$302,500	$170	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-33,796
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-12,056
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14502

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$524 /mo · $6,291/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,741

Max offer price $289,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $369	-5% $287	+0% $205	+5% $123	+10% $41
Rent	-10% $-32	-5% $86	+0% $205	+5% $323	+10% $442
Rate	-1.0pp $351	-0.5pp $278	base $205	+0.5pp $130	+1.0pp $53

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
294 Mildahn Rd Walworth, NY	3.0	2.5	1440	$3,000	$2.08	20d	1	0.56mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   listed $289,900 Active
3. 2020-08-27
   historical
4. 2020-08-18
   listed $174,900 Active
5. 2018-03-16
   historical
6. 2018-01-14
   listed $159,900 Active
7. 2017-12-30
   historical
8. 2017-10-04
   price $159,900
9. 2017-09-25
   listed $164,900 Active
10. 2017-06-14
    soldstatus $150,000
11. 2002-05-20
    soldstatus $106,000
12. 1997-10-16
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,291 · $524/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,291 · $524/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$6,291
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,880
• − Management: −$2,880
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$2,173
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$522
• After-tax cash flow: $2,978/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penfield Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622710
• Math proficiency: 77% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $74,802
• Composite: 68.37/100
• National rank: #347
• State rank: #67 of 590 in NY

Livability — Gananda

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gananda, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,515

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% Black 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8% Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.25%
• Current HPI: 242.5682
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1059.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $289,900 UNYREIS
• 2020-08-27 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2020-08-18 Listed $174,900 UNYREIS
• 2018-03-16 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2018-01-14 Listed $159,900 UNYREIS
• 2017-12-30 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2017-10-04 Price Changed $159,900 UNYREIS
• 2017-09-25 Listed $164,900 UNYREIS
• 2017-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2002-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $106,000 Public Records
• 1997-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,291 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.