153 Marilyn Dr · North Madison, OH 44057

$84,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · SingleFamily · 128 Days on market

Built 2024 $95/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Financing Available. Elevated Lifestyle & Location Brand new and beautifully built, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Madison Estates is the perfect place to call home! Madison Estates has been continuing to emprove the park in the past 3 years by bringing in new homes, inproving storm sewer drainage, paving park roads, and installing a playground showing a renewed sense of pride, and a focus on quality living. You'll love being just minutes from Ohio's best wineries, golf courses, and the shores of Lake Erie. If you're looking for affordable housing this is the place to be.

Key facts

• Madison estates
• Parking
• Built 2024

Tags

• MADISON ESTATES
• MINUTES FROM GOLF COURSES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $84k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $779 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#865 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, health & safety D, schools D-.
• Madison Local (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #308 of 656 in OH (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 448 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $581 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $73,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.75%
• DSCR: 2.77
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $36,091
• Equity at exit: $12,525

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.07×
• Total profit: $95,667
• Equity at exit: $7,263

Cash invested: $23,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44057

• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,841 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$441
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$105 /mo · $1,260/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$95
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $779

Break-even live

Break-even rent $855

Max offer price $84,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,000
• Closing costs: $2,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $95 · $1,140/yr
• Likely covers: sewer

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $84,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,000 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,000 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,000 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $84,000 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $84,000 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,000 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,000 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,000 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-03-21
    price $84,000
16. 2026-02-09
    listed $85,000 Active
17. 2025-12-18
    historical
18. 2025-09-24
    listed $75,000 Active
19. 2025-09-15
    historical
20. 2025-08-27
    price $77,500
21. 2025-06-20
    listed $82,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,094
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,705
• − Property taxes: −$1,260
• − Insurance: −$420
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,768
• − Management: −$1,768
• − HOA: −$1,140
• − Depreciation: −$2,444
• Taxable income: $8,590
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,062
• After-tax cash flow: $7,287/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison Local
• NCES district ID: 3904788
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,608
• Composite: 49.99/100
• National rank: #1924
• State rank: #308 of 656 in OH

Livability — North Madison

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #865
• US rank: #16372

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Madison, OH
• County: Lake · 224,932 people
• Metro: Cleveland, OH
• Population (ZIP): 19,491
• Household income: $70,212
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 8.5

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,022 people
• By 2030: 228,151 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 221,018 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 212,754 · -7.5%
• By 2075: 200,309 · -12.9%
• By 2100: 183,315 · -20.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: R (+14.3) · D 42.4% · R 56.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.8pp · 2024: -14.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.3 2020: R+13.6 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+1.7 2008: D+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -241.42%
• Current HPI: 187.8978
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+1.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $84,000 MLSNOW
• 2026-02-09 Listed $85,000 MLSNOW
• 2025-12-18 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2025-09-24 Listed $75,000 MLSNOW
• 2025-09-15 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $77,500 MLSNOW
• 2025-06-20 Listed $82,500 MLSNOW