402 Saint Paul Ave S · Thief River Falls, MN 56701

$133,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,425 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 1920 9,583 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is full of character and timeless appeal! Situated on a spacious corner lot, you'll appreciate the abundance of room both inside and out. Historic touches throughout the home blend beautifully with modern conveniences, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. There have been recent updates to the plumbing and upstairs bathroom and new shingles! There is natural gas forced-air heat with central air conditioning, and low-maintenance vinyl siding. Outside, the massive yard provides endless possibilities for gardening, entertaining, play, or simply enjoying the extra space. If you're looking for a home with personality and space, this one is worth a look. C

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Natural gas heat
• Massive yard

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• RECENT UPDATES
• NATURAL GAS HEAT
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• LOW MAINTENANCE VINYL SIDING
• MASSIVE YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with space for 2 cars
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property with two levels; Main-level entry
• Construction: Unfinished basement foundation; Foundation described as other
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Lot approximately 0.22 acre (75 x 128)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Microwave; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms located on the upper level
• Bathrooms: Two three-quarter bathrooms (one on the main level, one on the upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living room on the main level; Dining room on the main level; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $133k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $191 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $133k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.4% in Thief River Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#219 in MN, #4,606 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Thief River Falls School District (town): math 39% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #201 of 301 in MN (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 11 units permitted in Pennington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $920 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pennington County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $115k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $131,005 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.15%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-9,389
• Equity at exit: $19,831

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $7,502
• Equity at exit: $11,499

Cash invested: $37,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56701

• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,375 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$697
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,710/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,133

Max offer price $133,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $266	-5% $229	+0% $191	+5% $153	+10% $116
Rent	-10% $82	-5% $137	+0% $191	+5% $245	+10% $299
Rate	-1.0pp $258	-0.5pp $225	base $191	+0.5pp $156	+1.0pp $121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,250
• Closing costs: $3,990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
231 Tindolph Ave N Thief River Falls, MN	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,375	$1.38	44d	1	0.35mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $133,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $136,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $136,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $136,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $136,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $136,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $136,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $136,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $136,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $136,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $136,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $136,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $136,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $136,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $136,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $136,000 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    listed $136,000 Active
18. 2016-05-26
    soldstatus $115,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,710 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,710 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,450
• − Property taxes: −$1,710
• − Insurance: −$665
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,320
• − Management: −$1,320
• − Depreciation: −$3,869
• Taxable income: $166
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$40
• After-tax cash flow: $2,251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thief River Falls School District
• NCES district ID: 2738850
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,239
• Composite: 36.88/100
• National rank: #4547
• State rank: #201 of 301 in MN

Livability — Thief River Falls

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #219
• US rank: #4606

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thief River Falls, MN
• City population: 12,814
• Population (ZIP): 12,814

Population outlook (Pennington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,800 people
• By 2030: 15,030 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 15,402 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 15,601 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 15,659 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 14,231 · -3.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 34% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pennington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.5) · D 33.1% · R 64.6% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -31.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.5 2020: R+27.0 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+4.3 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.53%
• Current HPI: 136.4729
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+18.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $136,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,710 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.