2077 Holders Cove Rd · Winchester, TN 37398

$150,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,580 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 143 Days on market

Built 1951 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home is a perfect opportunity for those looking to remodel. It does need significant repairs, offering a blank slate to create your dream home. The spacious 2-acre lot adds potential, giving you room to create your space inside and out. This home offers 4 rooms, one of which is ideal as a home office.

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• Home office
• 2 acre lot

Tags

• 2 ACRE LOT
• HOME OFFICE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No covered parking; No dedicated parking spaces listed
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Existing construction
• Exterior features: 2-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Carpet, laminate and tile flooring
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $959 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 3.0% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#149 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities D-.
• Franklin County (town): math 18% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #111 of 139 in TN (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cowan Elementary (math 32% / reading 17%, grade F, #546 of 952 statewide, top 61%, 279 students, 0% FRL); South Middle School (math 11% / reading 13%, grade F, #242 of 333 statewide, top 74%, 292 students, 0% FRL); Franklin Co High School (math 5% / reading 22%, grade F, #255 of 332 statewide, top 77%, 1,180 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 48% district-wide (48 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 325 active listings in the ZIP; 422 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $150k implies a 500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.41%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $36,752
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $110,514
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37398

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 325
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,370 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $769/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $959

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,156

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,044	-5% $1,002	+0% $959	+5% $917	+10% $874
Rent	-10% $772	-5% $866	+0% $959	+5% $1,053	+10% $1,147
Rate	-1.0pp $1,035	-0.5pp $997	base $959	+0.5pp $920	+1.0pp $881

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $150,000 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $150,000 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 129 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    statusdays on market $150,000 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 124 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 123 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 122 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 121 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 120 DOM
19. 2026-05-13
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2026-03-25
    status Active
21. 2026-03-12
    historical Active Under Contract
22. 2026-02-26
    price $150,000
23. 2026-01-30
    listed $190,000 Active
24. 2011-08-17
    soldstatus $25,000
25. 2011-08-17
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $769 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,065 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$296/yr (+$25/mo · 38.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$769
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,275
• − Management: −$2,275
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $9,607
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,306
• After-tax cash flow: $9,206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin County
• NCES district ID: 4701290
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $43,108
• Composite: 17.24/100
• National rank: #9094
• State rank: #111 of 139 in TN

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #13341

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,712

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,858 people
• By 2030: 43,540 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 44,623 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 45,523 · +6.2%
• By 2075: 48,954 · +14.2%
• By 2100: 50,170 · +17.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.2) · D 23.0% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -53.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.2 2020: R+47.7 2016: R+43.7 2012: R+28.9 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.03%
• Current HPI: 333.839
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+500.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $150,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Listed $190,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2011-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $769 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.