21274 Lela Ln · Bella Vista, CA 96003

$270,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1981 2.25 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home sits on 2.25 acres of peaceful country property and offers a functional split floor plan designed for everyday living. The layout provides separation between the primary suite and secondary bedrooms, creating privacy and flexibility for family or guests. A large covered patio overlooks the land and provides the perfect spot for morning coffee, evening sunsets, or entertaining friends. With plenty of usable acreage, there is room for animals, gardens, a shop, or simply enjoying wide open space. A great fit for buyers looking for a true country lifestyle with room to grow and customize.

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Large covered patio
• Usable acreage

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE COVERED PATIO
• USABLE ACREAGE
• COUNTRY LIFESTYLE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Boat parking; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Other utilities
• Home design: Manufactured residential property; Single-story (one level)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Level and rolling slope yard; Asphalt road access; Has a view; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Evaporative cooling; Window unit(s)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Vinyl flooring; Wood-burning stove fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-907/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.4% in Bella Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#692 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Bella Vista Elementary (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #463 of 1,571 statewide, top 30%, 329 students, 64% FRL); Foothill High (math 45% / reading 70%, grade C, #232 of 1,170 statewide, top 20%, 1,398 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 16% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 393 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,467 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.20%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-41,683
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-12,474
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 393
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,225 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$305 /mo · $3,656/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,320

Max offer price $256,648

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $77	-5% $1	+0% $-76	+5% $-152	+10% $-228
Rent	-10% $-251	-5% $-163	+0% $-76	+5% $12	+10% $100
Rate	-1.0pp $60	-0.5pp $-7	base $-76	+0.5pp $-146	+1.0pp $-217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   status Active
3. 2026-01-14
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2026-01-06
   price $270,000
5. 2025-12-26
   listed $299,000 Active
6. 2022-08-01
   soldstatus $296,000
7. 2022-04-11
   soldstatus $203,000
8. 1998-11-12
   soldstatus $76,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,656 · $305/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,656 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 41 unhealthy d/yr today · 48 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$3,656
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,136
• − Management: −$2,136
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$5,560
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,334
• After-tax cash flow: $427/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shasta Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636600
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,080
• Composite: 46.01/100
• National rank: #2532
• State rank: #122 of 517 in CA

Livability — Bella Vista

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #692
• US rank: #21017

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bella Vista, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+255.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — SAOR
• 2026-04-29 Relisted — SAOR
• 2026-01-14 Contingent — SAOR
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $270,000 SAOR
• 2025-12-26 Listed $299,000 SAOR
• 2022-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $296,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $203,000 Public Records
• 1998-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,656 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.