1004 E Colorado · Pearsall, TX 78061

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,337 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 223 Days on market

Built 1992 9,147 sqft lot $105/sqft · 14% below area Est $176k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 bed 2 bath home in the heart of Pearsall, ready for someone to make it their own. This property offers great potential with a welcoming layout and classic character throughout. Perfect for buyers looking to personalize and add their finishing touches.

Key facts

• 9,147 sq ft lot
• Listed 223 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33 ($391/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (8.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#374 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Pearsall ISD (town): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #810 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Frio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Frio County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 223 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 223 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.00%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,522
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -20.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1311 E Colorado St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,340 (+0%)	16mo	$70,000	$52	76
1004 E San Marcos	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-10%)	6mo	$164,000	$137	65
520 S Ash St	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,243 (-7%)	4mo	$215,000	$173	57
405 E Trinity	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,145 (-14%)	9mo	$190,000	$166	43
223 W Rio Grande	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,524 (+14%)	2mo	$150,000	$98	37
541 Margo Dr	0.60mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,448 (+8%)	19mo	$189,900	$131	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.86% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $33,230
• Equity at exit: $78,124

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $99,279
• Equity at exit: $133,841

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78061

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,276 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,200/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,235

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $112	-5% $72	+0% $33	+5% $-7	+10% $-47
Rent	-10% $-68	-5% $-18	+0% $33	+5% $83	+10% $133
Rate	-1.0pp $103	-0.5pp $68	base $33	+0.5pp $-4	+1.0pp $-41

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $140,000 Active 223 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $140,000 Active 222 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 220 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 219 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 218 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 217 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 216 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 215 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $140,000 Active 214 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $140,000 Active 211 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 210 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 209 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 207 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 205 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 204 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 203 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 202 DOM
18. 2025-11-10
    listed $140,000 New 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    Charming 3 bed 2 bath home in the heart of Pearsall, ready for someone to make it their own. This property offers great potential with a welcoming layout and classic character throughout. Perfect for buyers looking to personalize and add their finishing touches.

19. 2008-10-24
    soldstatus
20. 2000-01-06
    soldstatus
21. 1997-10-16
    soldstatus
22. 1996-04-18
    soldstatus
23. 1995-05-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,200 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,562 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$362/yr (+$30/mo · 16.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,200
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,225
• − Management: −$1,225
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$1,948
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$467
• After-tax cash flow: $859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pearsall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834470
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $36,681
• Composite: 12.89/100
• National rank: #9588
• State rank: #810 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pearsall

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #374
• US rank: #7921

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pearsall, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,968

Population outlook (Frio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,420 people
• By 2030: 24,445 · +9.0%
• By 2040: 28,783 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 33,604 · +49.9%
• By 2075: 46,166 · +105.9%
• By 2100: 52,553 · +134.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 84% Two or more races 38% White 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 52%

Political lean MEDSL · Frio

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.6) · D 37.5% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.3pp toward R · 2008: 18.7pp · 2024: -24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.6 2020: R+7.6 2016: D+6.3 2012: D+20.6 2008: D+18.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.86%
• Current HPI: 94.1821
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-10 Listed $140,000 LERA
• 2008-10-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-01-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-10-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-04-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-05-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,200 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.