109 Helios Dr · Sonterra, TX 76537

$198,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,376 sqft · Condo public records · 100 Days on market

Built 2019 $144/sqft · 22% below area Est $257k · 23% under $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * NEW PRICE AND FRESH CARPET INSTALLED 3/27/26! * * Great single story 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated next to a lush, open, rolling greenbelt! This home boasts a modern, open layout with a spacious combination living/dining area, vinyl plank flooring, window blinds/coverings, and 2-car garage. The well-appointed kitchen is open to the living area and features granite countertops, breakfast bar, stainless steel appliances, pantry and FULL appliance package including refrigerator, washer & dryer providing a true move-in ready opportunity! The primary bedroom includes a large walk-in closet and full private bath with walk-in shower. Desirable in-law plan with 2 additional bedrooms and another full bath on the other side of the home. Enjoy the added privacy of a fully fenced yard, covered patio and no neighbors on the greenbelt side of your home! Community amenities include community pool, park, playground and skateboard park. Located in a growing community with convenient access to major corridors, this home combines modern finishes and functional design —don't miss this excellent opportunity!

Key facts

• Open layout
• Granite countertops
• Vinyl plank flooring

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• COMBINATION LIVING DINING AREA
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BREAKFAST BAR
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-169 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 773 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,143 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.66%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,101
• List price: $198,000
• Delta: -22.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-47,836
• Equity at exit: $29,522

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-74,760
• Equity at exit: $17,119

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 773
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,749 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$401 /mo · $4,809/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $-169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,963

Max offer price $168,143

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-57	-5% $-113	+0% $-169	+5% $-225	+10% $-281
Rent	-10% $-307	-5% $-238	+0% $-169	+5% $-100	+10% $-31
Rate	-1.0pp $-69	-0.5pp $-119	base $-169	+0.5pp $-220	+1.0pp $-273

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
209 Athena Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1211	$1,439	$1.19	25d	1	0.05mi
518 Woodpecker Run Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$1,695	$1.03	45d	1	0.09mi
616 Sonterra Blvd Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$1,750	$1.03	16d	1	0.32mi
100 Granville Ct Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,700	$1.19	25d	1	0.32mi
676 Yearwood Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,539	$1.15	45d	1	0.33mi
301 Greatest Gift Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,850	$1.28	19d	1	0.33mi
401 Hyacinth Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,745	$0.97	21d	1	0.33mi
301 Greatest Gift Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,850	$1.28	45d	1	0.33mi
213 Ibis Falls Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,750	$1.41	5d	1	0.38mi
Cressler Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,600	$1.19	45d	1	0.39mi
505 Greatest Gift Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1391	$1,600	$1.15	45d	1	0.43mi
509 Greatest Gift Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,700	$1.17	19d	1	0.43mi
217 Denson Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1466	$1,595	$1.09	19d	1	0.44mi
545 Greatest Gift Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,650	$1.14	45d	1	0.49mi
5033 Cressler Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,595	$1.19	5d	1	0.51mi
126 Sandstone Dr Unit F Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1730	$1,450	$0.84	25d	1	0.54mi
126 Sandstone Dr Unit D Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1730	$1,325	$0.77	4d	1	0.54mi
200 Sandstone Dr Unit A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1730	$1,450	$0.84	25d	1	0.55mi
221 Koontz Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1546	$1,750	$1.13	5d	1	0.58mi
350 Bedford Falls Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$1,925	$1.14	19d	1	0.60mi
400 Captain Grumbles Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,550	$1.06	25d	1	0.60mi
212 Sandstone Dr Unit G Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1730	$1,350	$0.78	13d	1	0.61mi
220 Sandstone Dr Apt A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,450	$0.99	4d	1	0.62mi
220 Sandstone Dr Unit C Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1730	$1,500	$0.87	4d	1	0.62mi
220 Sandstone Dr Apt E Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1730	$1,550	$0.90	25d	1	0.62mi
220 Sandstone Dr Apt E Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1730	$1,595	$0.92	45d	1	0.62mi
100 Zayd Ct Unit A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1528	$1,600	$1.05	45d	1	0.64mi
105 Zayd Ct Unit A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,600	$1.04	45d	1	0.64mi
364 Bell Rings Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$1,650	$1.01	45d	1	0.66mi
100 Bailey Kay Ct Unit B Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,600	$1.05	45d	1	0.69mi
145 Miracle Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,525	$1.26	5d	1	0.71mi
140 Calcite Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,650	$1.18	25d	1	0.73mi
417 Sapphire Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1537	$1,499	$0.98	25d	1	0.73mi
100 Everett Ct Unit B Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1528	$1,600	$1.05	45d	1	0.74mi
105 Everett Ct Unit B Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1528	$1,650	$1.08	45d	1	0.77mi
109 Everett Ct Unit B Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,700	$1.11	5d	1	0.77mi
140 Amber Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,749	$1.10	19d	1	0.79mi
100 Stockton Family Ct Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,500	$1.15	23d	1	0.83mi
224 Amber Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1133	$1,475	$1.30	21d	1	0.83mi
101 Stockton Family Ct Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,500	$1.14	23d	1	0.86mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $198,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $198,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $198,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $198,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $198,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $198,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $198,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $198,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $198,000 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $200,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    price $200,000 1125-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1125 chars)

    * * NEW PRICE AND FRESH CARPET INSTALLED 3/27/26! * * Great single story 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated next to a lush, open, rolling greenbelt! This home boasts a modern, open layout with a spacious combination living/dining area, vinyl plank flooring, window blinds/coverings, and 2-car garage. The well-appointed kitchen is open to the living area and features granite countertops, breakfast bar, stainless steel appliances, pantry and FULL appliance package including refrigerator, washer & dryer providing a true move-in ready opportunity! The primary bedroom includes a large walk-in closet and full private bath with walk-in shower. Desirable in-law plan with 2 additional bedrooms and another full bath on the other side of the home. Enjoy the added privacy of a fully fenced yard, covered patio and no neighbors on the greenbelt side of your home! Community amenities include community pool, park, playground and skateboard park. Located in a growing community with convenient access to major corridors, this home combines modern finishes and functional design —don't miss this excellent opportunity!

16. 2026-03-31
    price $204,000 1125-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1125 chars)

    * * NEW PRICE AND FRESH CARPET INSTALLED 3/27/26! * * Great single story 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated next to a lush, open, rolling greenbelt! This home boasts a modern, open layout with a spacious combination living/dining area, vinyl plank flooring, window blinds/coverings, and 2-car garage. The well-appointed kitchen is open to the living area and features granite countertops, breakfast bar, stainless steel appliances, pantry and FULL appliance package including refrigerator, washer & dryer providing a true move-in ready opportunity! The primary bedroom includes a large walk-in closet and full private bath with walk-in shower. Desirable in-law plan with 2 additional bedrooms and another full bath on the other side of the home. Enjoy the added privacy of a fully fenced yard, covered patio and no neighbors on the greenbelt side of your home! Community amenities include community pool, park, playground and skateboard park. Located in a growing community with convenient access to major corridors, this home combines modern finishes and functional design —don't miss this excellent opportunity!

17. 2026-03-14
    listed $205,000 Active 1125-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1125 chars)

    * * NEW PRICE AND FRESH CARPET INSTALLED 3/27/26! * * Great single story 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated next to a lush, open, rolling greenbelt! This home boasts a modern, open layout with a spacious combination living/dining area, vinyl plank flooring, window blinds/coverings, and 2-car garage. The well-appointed kitchen is open to the living area and features granite countertops, breakfast bar, stainless steel appliances, pantry and FULL appliance package including refrigerator, washer & dryer providing a true move-in ready opportunity! The primary bedroom includes a large walk-in closet and full private bath with walk-in shower. Desirable in-law plan with 2 additional bedrooms and another full bath on the other side of the home. Enjoy the added privacy of a fully fenced yard, covered patio and no neighbors on the greenbelt side of your home! Community amenities include community pool, park, playground and skateboard park. Located in a growing community with convenient access to major corridors, this home combines modern finishes and functional design —don't miss this excellent opportunity!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,809 · $401/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,809 · $401/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,986
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$4,809
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,679
• − Management: −$1,679
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable loss: −$5,370
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,289
• After-tax cash flow: $-739/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sonterra

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sonterra, TX
• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 12,526
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 225.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $200,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $204,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $205,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,809 · -8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.