2851 N Dancer Rd · Lima, MI 48130

$279,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 964 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1900 1.20 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This darling farmhouse style home harkens back to the way things were in rural America: living on the farm out in the country. No one knows the exact age of this home, but considering the construction, it is likely around 1900. It has been in this family for over 80 years, but they are ready to pass it on to new good stewards of this history. A small fire earlier this year resulted in some exterior siding damage on the back. Due to the smoke in the home, all of the flooring, appliances and kitchen counters were replaced and the whole entry level was painted. It still stands straight and has some bonuses, like a whole house generator(!), an enclosed front porch that is large enough to furnish and tons of natural lighting throughout the main floor. The front bedroom upstairs is non-conforming, having only a wardrobe for a closet. So come and sit a spell…and enjoy the peace of the country!

Key facts

• Natural lighting
• Farmhouse style home
• Enclosed front porch

Tags

• FARMHOUSE STYLE HOME
• WHOLE HOUSE GENERATOR
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• NATURAL LIGHTING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Well water
• Home design: Single-family residential; Residential property; Built in 1900
• Construction: Aluminum and vinyl siding
• Exterior features: 1.2-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (14 x 8)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (11 x 12); Bedroom 2 (8 x 9); Bedroom 3 (14 x 7)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Total of 9 rooms; Michigan-style basement
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room (9 x 7)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($837/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dexter Community School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #33 of 540 in MI (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wylie Elementary School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C, #320 of 1,397 statewide, top 23%, 454 students, 15% FRL); Creekside Intermediate School (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #117 of 493 statewide, top 25%, 513 students, 14% FRL); Dexter High School (math 62% / reading 84%, grade B+, #24 of 713 statewide, top 3%, 1,116 students, 12% FRL).
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 996 units permitted in Washtenaw County in 2024 (492 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washtenaw County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $216,927 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.07%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-40,908
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-30,477
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48130

• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,169 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $775/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,081

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $228	-5% $149	+0% $70	+5% $-9	+10% $-88
Rent	-10% $-102	-5% $-16	+0% $70	+5% $155	+10% $241
Rate	-1.0pp $210	-0.5pp $141	base $70	+0.5pp $-3	+1.0pp $-76

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $279,000 Pending 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (904 chars)

    This darling farmhouse style home harkens back to the way things were in rural America: living on the farm out in the country. No one knows the exact age of this home, but considering the construction, it is likely around 1900. It has been in this family for over 80 years, but they are ready to pass it on to new good stewards of this history. A small fire earlier this year resulted in some exterior siding damage on the back. Due to the smoke in the home, all of the flooring, appliances and kitchen counters were replaced and the whole entry level was painted. It still stands straight and has some bonuses, like a whole house generator(!), an enclosed front porch that is large enough to furnish and tons of natural lighting throughout the main floor. The front bedroom upstairs is non-conforming, having only a wardrobe for a closet. So come and sit a spell. .. and enjoy the peace of the country!

11. 2026-06-07
    listed $279,000 Active 1 DOM

    Show marketing remark (904 chars)

    This darling farmhouse style home harkens back to the way things were in rural America: living on the farm out in the country. No one knows the exact age of this home, but considering the construction, it is likely around 1900. It has been in this family for over 80 years, but they are ready to pass it on to new good stewards of this history. A small fire earlier this year resulted in some exterior siding damage on the back. Due to the smoke in the home, all of the flooring, appliances and kitchen counters were replaced and the whole entry level was painted. It still stands straight and has some bonuses, like a whole house generator(!), an enclosed front porch that is large enough to furnish and tons of natural lighting throughout the main floor. The front bedroom upstairs is non-conforming, having only a wardrobe for a closet. So come and sit a spell. .. and enjoy the peace of the country!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $775 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,536 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,761/yr (+$147/mo · 227.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$775
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,082
• − Management: −$2,082
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$4,049
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$972
• After-tax cash flow: $1,809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dexter Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2612030
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $94,299
• Composite: 54.03/100
• National rank: #1392
• State rank: #33 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lima

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,849

Population outlook (Washtenaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 402,878 people
• By 2030: 424,104 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 464,633 · +15.3%
• By 2050: 504,728 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 614,463 · +52.5%
• By 2100: 676,181 · +67.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washtenaw

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.4) · D 71.0% · R 26.6% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 41.0pp · 2024: 44.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.4 2020: D+46.6 2016: D+41.5 2012: D+36.0 2008: D+41.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -198.65%
• Current HPI: 185.4179
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $279,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-07 Listed $279,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-06 Listed $279,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-06 Listed $279,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-06 Listed $279,000 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

-7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $775 · -70.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.