15495 Cedarwood Ln #204 · Bonita Springs, FL 34110

$399,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,422 sqft · Condo public records · 91 Days on market

Built 2001 $863/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

There is no reason NOT to love this second floor spacious light and very bright home in the tippy top trees in Bay Forest. .. .. AND WITH A DETACHED GARAGE!!! This home has been taken care of like a cream puff, and it shows. The floor plan allows for ease of entertaining, with a dining area and huge great room. The den is truly a den, and it totally open. Easy for an office, or it can be closed off for an additional bedroom. Total Western exposure, you will delight with the sunset views. The lanai provides a great entertaining space, with easy access to the Master bedroom. Huge closet double sinks, provide your private bath inside the Master suite. And the second bath is totally accessible

Key facts

• Dining area
• Huge great room
• Sunset views

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• DINING AREA
• HUGE GREAT ROOM
• TOTAL WESTERN EXPOSURE
• SUNSET VIEWS
• LANAI

Property features AI

Other

• Other: Part of the Bay Forest development (sub-condo: Bermuda Bay); Condo/common measurement source: condo documents; Possession at closing; Multifamily info: 2 units per floor, single floor

Finance

• HOA & community: Quarterly HOA fee; HOA services include cable, insurance, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, master association fee, pest control (interior and exterior), recreation facilities, repairs, reserves, sewer, trash removal, and water; Professional management; Community amenities: clubhouse, community pool, community spa/hot tub, exercise room, library, BBQ/picnic area, bike and jog path, bocce court, fishing pier, pickleball, tennis courts; Total annual recurring HOA fees: $10,360; One-time fees: $100

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential low-rise building (1–3 stories); Built in 2001; Concrete block construction; Rear exposure: West; Unit 204 in the development
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Tile roof; Stucco finish; Built in 2001
• Exterior features: Tile roof; Single-hung windows; Stucco exterior; Zero lot line; Landscaped area view; Central irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Refrigerator/ice maker; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms plus den (split bedroom floor plan)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bathroom with shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Built-in cabinets; Cable prewire; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet; Den/study; Great room; Guest bath; Screened balcony; Common elevator
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in residence; Auto garage door; Security system

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $450 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $399k).
• Recommended offer: $363k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Naples Park Elementary School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 395 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,914/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($98k/yr) (locally 1006% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($363k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $363,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.55%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-49,881
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-60,166
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34110

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,914 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$243 /mo · $2,921/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$863
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,032
• Net cashflow: $450

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,344

Max offer price $399,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $676	-5% $563	+0% $450	+5% $337	+10% $225
Rent	-10% $62	-5% $256	+0% $450	+5% $644	+10% $839
Rate	-1.0pp $651	-0.5pp $552	base $450	+0.5pp $347	+1.0pp $242

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15415 Cedarwood Ln Unit 3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$2,200	$1.54	15d	1	0.16mi
15400 Cedarwood Ln #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$6,300	$4.90	15d	1	0.21mi
15400 Cedarwood Ln Unit 1-201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$6,000	$4.67	24d	1	0.21mi
285 Naples Cove Dr #1103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$2,475	$1.95	24d	1	0.22mi
270 Naples Cove Dr #3506 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$2,500	$1.69	22d	1	0.23mi
290 Naples Cove Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1327	$3,400	$2.56	24d	3	0.27mi
15191 Cedarwood Ln #2602 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$2,300	$1.82	24d	1	0.31mi
15161 Cedarwood Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$4,000	$3.16	24d	3	0.35mi
386 Emerald Bay Cir Unit G4 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,500	$1.68	24d	1	0.45mi
341 Emerald Bay Cir Unit T5 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1611	$4,500	$2.79	24d	1	0.48mi
306 Emerald Bay Cir Unit J5 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$5,900	$3.96	24d	1	0.54mi
306 Emerald Bay Cir Unit J8 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$4,000	$2.96	24d	1	0.54mi
298 Emerald Bay Cir Unit K6 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$4,750	$3.95	24d	1	0.57mi
28940 Bermuda Pointe Cir #102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1076	$5,500	$5.11	24d	1	0.59mi
28720 Bermuda Bay Way #205 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1097	$2,200	$2.01	15d	1	0.68mi
1001 Arbor Lake Dr Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1755	$3,800	$2.16	24d	2	0.69mi
505 Lake Louise Cir #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,500	$3.81	24d	1	0.72mi
999 E Valley Dr Unit 1073522P Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1668	$9,929	$5.95	22d	1	0.72mi
262 Barefoot Beach Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0–3.0	1864	$10,500	$5.63	24d	2	0.77mi
265 Barefoot Beach Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1604	$9,500	$5.92	24d	3	0.77mi
265 Barefoot Beach Blvd #203 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1604	$13,000	$8.10	15d	1	0.77mi
62 8th St Unit 1073526P Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1593	$5,435	$3.41	24d	1	0.78mi
513 Lake Louise Cir #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,300	$3.67	24d	1	0.79mi
3930 Windward Passage Cir #202 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1478	$1,900	$1.29	17d	1	0.81mi
28712 Carmel Way Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1626	$9,250	$5.69	24d	1	0.82mi
3951 Windward Passage Cir #102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1397	$5,200	$3.72	24d	1	0.84mi
74 7th St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1124	$3,150	$2.80	24d	1	0.85mi
3941 Leeward Passage Ct #203 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1204	$2,000	$1.66	24d	1	0.92mi
526 Lake Louise Cir Unit 4-403 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1740	$6,500	$3.74	24d	1	0.93mi
3921 Leeward Passage Ct #203 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1204	$3,500	$2.91	24d	1	0.94mi
255 Barefoot Beach Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.5	1864	$9,700	$5.20	15d	2	0.99mi
64 4th St Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1231	$3,700	$3.01	24d	2	1.01mi
60 4th St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1860	$11,400	$6.13	24d	1	1.05mi
28650 Carriage Home Dr Unit 1049692P Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1528	$3,980	$2.60	17d	1	1.10mi
75 3rd St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	1630	$8,900	$5.46	24d	1	1.12mi
28611 Carriage Home Dr #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1433	$2,550	$1.78	24d	1	1.18mi
28327 Hidden Lake Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1567	$8,950	$5.71	24d	1	1.19mi
28178 Sunset Dr Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	936	$2,550	$2.72	22d	1	1.21mi
11 2nd St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1595	$9,500	$5.96	24d	1	1.23mi
4835 Bonita Beach Rd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	865	$3,425	$3.96	24d	2	1.30mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $863 · $10,356/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $399,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,000 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $399,000 Active 72 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,921 · $243/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,312 · $276/mo
• Expected delta: +$391/yr (+$33/mo · 13.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 32 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$2,921
• − Insurance: −$2,792
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,717
• − Management: −$4,717
• − HOA: −$10,356
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$496
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$119
• After-tax cash flow: $5,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bonita Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #7576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 64,727
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,630
• Household income: $97,564
• Rent vs Own: 23.2% rent · 76.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1006.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.68%
• Current HPI: 267.4644
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.06%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Listed $399,000 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,921 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.