40 Lake Loretta Dr · Jefferson, PA 18436

$264,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,485 sqft · SingleFamily · 262 Days on market

Built 1976 Fair condition 0.28 ac lot $178/sqft · 13% below area Est $304k · 13% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy Lake life in this 2-bedroom, 1 bath ranch, on a corner lot, in Jefferson Twp, with lake rights to both Lake Loretta & Lake Spangenberg. The main level offers hardwood floors, new stainless-steel appliances, a brand-new handicap-accessible shower, and a large heated enclosed porch with lake views. The partially finished basement features a Family room with a cozy wood-burning stove and laundry area, Outdoors, the property includes a partially fenced yard, a shed, a gravel driveway, and plenty of space to entertain. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a peaceful retreat, this home combines comfort, convenience, and lake-life living in the desirable North Pocono School district.

Key facts

• Wood-burning stove
• Lake rights
• Gravel driveway

Tags

• LAKE RIGHTS
• HANDICAP-ACCESSIBLE SHOWER
• HEATED ENCLOSED PORCH
• WOOD-BURNING STOVE
• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD
• GRAVEL DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.1% in Jefferson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#1,242 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• North Pocono SD (rural): math 45% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #82 of 539 in PA (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 337 active listings in the ZIP; 251 units permitted in Lackawanna County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lackawanna County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 262 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $214,951 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 262 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.14%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,918
• List price: $264,900
• Delta: -12.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 Victoria Cir	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-6%)	1mo	$340,000	$243	74
14 Shady Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,264 (-15%)	20mo	$290,000	$229	42
14 Shady Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,264 (-15%)	20mo	$290,000	$229	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $135,862
• Equity at exit: $238,643

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.48×
• Total profit: $406,794
• Equity at exit: $514,642

Cash invested: $74,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18436

• Home prices YoY: 16.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,974/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,317

Max offer price $245,720

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $51	-5% $-41	+0% $-133	+5% $-224	+10% $-316
Rent	-10% $-302	-5% $-217	+0% $-133	+5% $-48	+10% $37
Rate	-1.0pp $1	-0.5pp $-65	base $-133	+0.5pp $-201	+1.0pp $-271

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,225
• Closing costs: $7,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,900 Active 262 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,900 Active 261 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,900 Active 260 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,900 Active 259 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $264,900 Active 257 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,900 Active 256 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $264,900 Active 254 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,900 Active 253 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,900 Active 252 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $264,900 Active 251 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,900 Active 246 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,900 Active 245 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,900 Active 244 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $264,900 Active 243 DOM
15. 2025-10-30
    price $264,900 712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (712 chars)

    Enjoy Lake life in this 2-bedroom, 1 bath ranch, on a corner lot, in Jefferson Twp, with lake rights to both Lake Loretta & Lake Spangenberg. The main level offers hardwood floors, new stainless-steel appliances, a brand-new handicap-accessible shower, and a large heated enclosed porch with lake views. The partially finished basement features a Family room with a cozy wood-burning stove and laundry area, Outdoors, the property includes a partially fenced yard, a shed, a gravel driveway, and plenty of space to entertain. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a peaceful retreat, this home combines comfort, convenience, and lake-life living in the desirable North Pocono School district.

16. 2025-09-26
    listed $269,900 Active 712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (712 chars)

    Enjoy Lake life in this 2-bedroom, 1 bath ranch, on a corner lot, in Jefferson Twp, with lake rights to both Lake Loretta & Lake Spangenberg. The main level offers hardwood floors, new stainless-steel appliances, a brand-new handicap-accessible shower, and a large heated enclosed porch with lake views. The partially finished basement features a Family room with a cozy wood-burning stove and laundry area, Outdoors, the property includes a partially fenced yard, a shed, a gravel driveway, and plenty of space to entertain. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a peaceful retreat, this home combines comfort, convenience, and lake-life living in the desirable North Pocono School district.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,794
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,839
• − Property taxes: −$3,974
• − Insurance: −$1,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,064
• − Management: −$2,064
• − Depreciation: −$7,706
• Taxable loss: −$6,176
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,482
• After-tax cash flow: $-108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home is in fair condition with average interior and exterior features. It requires major repairs to the roof and exterior siding, as well as painting. The property has a good location with lake views, but the repairs and maintenance needed will significantly impact its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major paint — paint appears worn and needs touch-up
• Major roof — visible from satellite image
• Major exterior siding — wood siding needs repainting

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting and repainting — painting will improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both roof replacement — replacing the roof will improve the home's structural integrity and curb appeal
• Both exterior siding repainting — repainting the siding will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
paint · paint appears worn and needs touch-up	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · visible from satellite image	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · wood siding needs repainting	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting and repainting — painting will improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both roof replacement — replacing the roof will improve the home's structural integrity and curb appeal ↑
• Both exterior siding repainting — repainting the siding will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Pocono SD
• NCES district ID: 4217310
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,555
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1894
• State rank: #82 of 539 in PA

Livability — Jefferson

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #1242
• US rank: #14897

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 152
• Population (ZIP): 13,225

Population outlook (Lackawanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 210,652 people
• By 2030: 208,623 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 203,980 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 201,069 · -4.5%
• By 2075: 205,026 · -2.7%
• By 2100: 210,851 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lackawanna

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.0% · R 48.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: 26.0pp · 2024: 2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.8 2020: D+8.4 2016: D+3.4 2012: D+27.4 2008: D+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.95%
• Current HPI: 331.9645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $264,900 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-09-26 Listed $269,900 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID