4640 Lafayette Ln W · Estero, FL 33928

$167,444

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 912 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1995 Est $165k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Piece of Paradise in a 55plus community with a variety of activities to participate in. Awesome pool and jacuzzi as well as pickleball and tennis courts and fellowship hall. Feel free to call me with questions. Trish 239-822-6924 Home has many new or newer appliances. .. well maintained property on extra large ideally located home

Key facts

• Pickleball courts
• Awesome pool
• Newer appliances

Tags

• AWESOME POOL
• JACUZZI
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• TENNIS COURTS
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• WELL MAINTAINED PROPERTY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: House
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 2,919 sq ft

Interior

• Interior features: 912 square feet of living space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $167k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-563/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (5.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $167k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (5.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $167k implies a 498% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→33/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,154 (5.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.72%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $165,072
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4501 Jefferson Davis Blvd E	0.14mi	1/1.5	912 (0%)	3mo	$118,000	$129	89
4580 Washington Way E	0.26mi	2/1.5 (+1)	912 (0%)	13mo	$165,000	$181	70
4711 Sawmill Dr W	0.20mi	2/1.5 (+1)	907 (-0%)	24mo	$175,000	$193	63
4541 Candlestick Ct E	0.08mi	1/1.5	789 (-14%)	14mo	$95,000	$120	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-35,003
• Equity at exit: $24,966

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-53,156
• Equity at exit: $14,477

Cash invested: $46,884 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 668
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,728 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$878
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $450/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $-47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,787

Max offer price $159,154

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,861
• Closing costs: $5,023
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4751 Lafayette Ln W Estero, FL	2.0	1.0	584	$1,550	$2.65	24d	1	0.11mi
19600 Veduro Cir Fort Myers, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$1,649	$1.66	15d	11	1.01mi
7340 Stoney Grove CIR Fort Myers, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1106	$1,640	$1.48	2d	39	1.09mi
19760 Osprey Cove Blvd #145 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$1,500	$1.34	10d	1	1.23mi
19113 Holly Rd Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	676	$1,550	$2.29	21d	1	1.27mi
19091 Holly Rd Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	24d	1	1.29mi
18645 Holly Rd Unit 1 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,800	$1.89	19d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $167,444 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $167,444 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $167,444 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $167,444 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $167,444 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $167,444 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $167,444 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $167,444 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-05-26
   listed $167,444 Active 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   Beautiful Piece of Paradise in a 55plus community with a variety of activities to participate in. Awesome pool and jacuzzi as well as pickleball and tennis courts and fellowship hall. Feel free to call me with questions. Trish 239-822-6924 Home has many new or newer appliances. .. well maintained property on extra large ideally located home

10. 2026-03-05
    price $167,444
11. 2026-02-04
    price $175,444
12. 2025-12-06
    listed $182,444 Active
13. 1994-05-11
    soldstatus $28,000
14. 1987-02-27
    soldstatus $22,600
15. 1987-02-01
    soldstatus $22,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $450 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,390 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$939/yr (+$78/mo · 208.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 91% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥107°F today · 33 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,379
• − Property taxes: −$450
• − Insurance: −$5,956
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,659
• − Management: −$1,659
• − Depreciation: −$4,871
• Taxable loss: −$3,240
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$778
• After-tax cash flow: $214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estero, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+640.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $167,444 FSBO.com
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $167,444 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $175,444 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-12-06 Listed $182,444 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 1994-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 1987-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $22,600 Public Records
• 1987-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $22,600 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $450 · -8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.