820 Vine Hill Rd · Jackson, TN 38391

$174,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,075 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2006 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare opportunity to enjoy peaceful country living in West Madison County! This well-maintained, one-owner 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is nestled on a beautiful 1-acre lot in Denmark. Offering a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, this home provides the perfect blend of privacy and convenience. Enjoy plenty of outdoor space for gardening, entertaining, or simply relaxing and taking in the quiet surroundings. A wonderful chance to make this property your own!

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Outdoor space
• Quiet surroundings

Tags

• 1 ACRE LOT
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• QUIET SURROUNDINGS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rain gutters; Has a view; Level lot; Asphalt road frontage on a county road maintained by the public

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, both on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Exhaust fan
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-93 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (32.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.5% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#216 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Madison County (urban): math 10% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #131 of 139 in TN (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 247 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Madison County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,155 (32.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.27%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $42,620
• Equity at exit: $107,941

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $130,309
• Equity at exit: $194,035

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38391

• Home prices YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,182 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $431/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $-93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,299

Max offer price $158,549

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6	-5% $-43	+0% $-93	+5% $-142	+10% $-192
Rent	-10% $-186	-5% $-139	+0% $-93	+5% $-46	+10% $1
Rate	-1.0pp $-4	-0.5pp $-48	base $-93	+0.5pp $-138	+1.0pp $-184

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-04
   listed $174,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $431 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,242 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$811/yr (+$68/mo · 188.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,179
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$431
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,134
• − Management: −$1,134
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$4,281
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,027
• After-tax cash flow: $-83/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County
• NCES district ID: 4702580
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,015
• Composite: 11.74/100
• National rank: #9687
• State rank: #131 of 139 in TN

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #16488

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 87,024
• Population (ZIP): 1,507

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,952 people
• By 2030: 94,264 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 89,607 · -6.6%
• By 2050: 84,133 · -12.3%
• By 2075: 72,215 · -24.7%
• By 2100: 62,062 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 81% White 17% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.3% · R 58.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -21.6pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+12.9 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+8.9 2008: R+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.82%
• Current HPI: 101.6284
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — CWTAR
• 2026-05-04 Listed $174,900 CWTAR

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $431 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.